Current real estate cycle in chart vs. actual historical data

8 Replies

Below are two charts, a general real estate cycle chart (from eric fernwood), which a normal real estate cycle goes through. The other is Case Shiller index top 20 largest metros (home appreciation) for past 30 years of historical actuals.

Notice anything?

Terry

Very interesting. But I wonder if these 20 largest metros don't really go through all of these cycles.

For example, in SF during 2008 the prices of homes did not even drop. They actually stayed the same. 

@Antoine Martel

@Eric Fernwood

I think all markets go through this cycle. It is just a matter of time, meaning SF will but do to their strong economy, high paying jobs, and low inventory, the time will just take longer. But the cycle will happen. The Cash Shiller index is averaged over 20 cities, SF might be the outliner for the time being. For example, when the jobs go down or layoff in SF in 2008, slight dip in prices but not much compared to say Las Vegas.

Terry

Originally posted by @Terry Lao :

@Antoine Martel

@Eric Fernwood

I think all markets go through this cycle. It is just a matter of time, meaning SF will but do to their strong economy, high paying jobs, and low inventory, the time will just take longer. But the cycle will happen. The Cash Shiller index is averaged over 20 cities, SF might be the outliner for the time being. For example, when the jobs go down or layoff in SF in 2008, slight dip in prices but not much compared to say Las Vegas.

Terry

 Understood. I like it man, thanks for sharing. 

@Antoine Martel

Here's another bit. My brother lives in SF, near Lake Mead. In 2008, I noticed that his area did not really take any major hit to home price, maybe stayed same or bit lower, during the recession that hit silicon valley. After 2011, market just took off in all bay areas to the point where you are now. 

Las Vegas took the brunt of the recession in 2008. Only now, starting to come back with a vengeance. \

If you took away, the high and low cities, the graph above will look even closer.

Terry

@Antoine Martel

Here's another example of charts lines for SF bay area vs. Las Vegas. It is my attempt at crayon drawing of cycle. Both have the same cycle, but time plays a factor.

Terry

This post has been removed.

Originally posted by @Terry Lao :

@Antoine Martel

Here's another example of charts lines for SF bay area vs. Las Vegas. It is my attempt at crayon drawing of cycle. Both have the same cycle, but time plays a factor.

Terry

 Beautiful drawing! haha.

It also shows that one market can be more affected by the cycle than another. And some cycles are more boom and bust while others are more stable. 

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