Not back to 2007 prices

[Erik Sherburne]

I'm finding properties that haven't yet reached the sales price they were in 2007. Granted that was a bubble but is it unreasonable to assume that they "should" get back to at least those levels in the next couple years? They are in the mid $100k and are about 10%-15% from 2007 in good neighborhoods. This isn't a bet on appreciation as they still cash flow but moreover future planning/selling.

[Jay Hinrichs]

I find this an interesting thought process...  in some areas home prices peaked in the 80s and 90s  think Rochester NY for example or Buffalo.. 

in some areas real estate seems to make new highs then 10 years later it makes new highs again  think SF bay area , 

at the end of the day building materials are up land prices even being zero  it cost more to build a home than you can buy an existing one in a huge swath of America so until that changes.. who knows.

then in the areas that are slowing but surely turning into rental dominated markets ( we know which ones those are ) those values will really only move if rents move or investor accept a much smaller return that what they want today which is basically 6 to 10% COC with 20 to 30% down.. Just like in any multi values are driven by cap rates.

in retail home owner real estate does not matter.. if you don't have enough housing and you have great job growth or sustainable then you have apprection just based on building cost going higher.