How are negative population markets for finding tenants

Question

I've read up on the Ohio markets. Other than Youngstown it sounds like investors appreciate them (Dayton, Toledo, Cincinnati, Colombus etc) as solid cash flow markets.

I thought when a city loses 5-10% of it's population continuously for decades, landlords would be fighting over tenants and in a gloomy state in general.

Is this wrong? Does population loss not affect landlords as much as one might guess?

Any clarification on how this really pans out would help a lot, thanks.

Justin Kurpius · Answer

@Sean D. Short term....u might have some luck. But longer term, I would look elsewhere. Put yourself in a market where u can buy a good deal and benefit from some “luck”

Account Closed · Answer

I'm going to invest in the Cleveland regardless of any decline. Multifamily though.  Not single jingles.

Brandon Sturgill · Answer

@Sean D Flip the book over dude...you're reading it upside down....

Silly wholesalers....

Gordon Starr · Answer

I was living in Cleveland when it went bankrupt and invested in Detroit six seven years ago when it went under. These was an awful lot of distressed property you could buy for a song. You didnt have any leverage then. Now you do.. All those markets are in much better shape now. Dayton proper has gained thousands of census countable people in the last two years. If you can rehab rentals, its golden.

Nathan Currier-Groh · Answer

A quick google brings up a negatively sloped line for Cincinnati. However, the population here has been growing since 2011, and just crossed 300,000. I can't find a table that shows just urban growth, but anecdotally I think the areas closer to downtown are experiencing more rapid growth. It is tricky and really it comes down to specific neighborhoods. The strategies I've used for investing so far have relied on hyper-local information rather than broad demographic shifts. Can't imagine doing out-of-state investing unless it was a place I had lived previously.

Remington Lyman · Answer

@Sean D Columbus, OH is doing just fine. If you need help investing here let me know. I just bought my 4th property (14th unit)

Derek Carroll · Answer

@Sean D

Sometimes it’s really people just moving from the city to the suburbs, other times it’s people leaving the metro area altogether. That said there are always areas and pockets that are growing, desirable, or being redeveloped even if the larger market is on the decline.

Being in a larger market on the upswing lets you ride the wave for sure but that doesn’t mean that money can’t be made in declining or stagnant markets. Real estate is hyper local and there is a reason for the phrase “ location, location, location”.

Harvey Yergin IV · Answer

@Sean D which cities are currently experiencing population decline?

Sean Dezoysa · Answer

@Harvey Yergain, last I checked all the major metros in Ohior were on the decline. I believe Michigan also has this issue in parts.

Gordon Starr · Answer

Population decline leads to some areas having high vacancy and  blight. Selling in those areas is very tough. Housing units become untenable faster than people are leaving at some point. From that point on, investors with a solid business plan and rental system make out good. With really nice units in Ohio or Michigan, they may select from a huge number of applicants.

How are negative population markets for finding tenants

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