What if “Distress” Isn’t the Opportunity—But the Signal?

[Stasiu Geleszinski]

Everyone’s chasing distressed deals right now—loan maturities, capital calls, refi gaps. But here’s something I’ve been chewing on:

What if distress isn’t the opportunity itself—but simply the signal that outdated strategies are cracking?

I’ve been underwriting properties where the distress isn't due to bad operators—it’s due to capital stacks built for a 3% world. The opportunity isn’t the asset. It’s the misalignment—between institutional assumptions and current reality.

That gap is where creative buyers thrive:

• Flexible timelines

• Different capital expectations

• Local knowledge

• Renovation chops

• Lower cost basis or long-term hold horizons

What I’m wondering is: Are we looking hard enough at the why behind a distressed deal? Or are we just hoping for a bargain?

Sometimes, distress = mismanagement.

But often, it’s just a good asset priced with the wrong spreadsheet 3 years ago.

Curious how others here are navigating that line. What are you seeing in your markets? Are sellers coming around yet? Or are we still early?