Analyze This...deal???

Question

Here's the skinny-
          
          85 units
          71% Occupancy
          NOI 148,991 (Actual NOI from his package, however spreadsheets I got showed Actuals of 124,051)
          Price $1.6M
          
          He will owner finance 78%, meaning he wants cash down of 22% ($352k).
          
          What's the verdict on both NOI scenarios (the Actual from the package, and the Actual I analyzed based on his P&L's)?
          
Deal or no Deal?

Uwe S. · Answer

Daniel,

I wrote this in another topic and a write this here again, when you have $350k for a downpayment. Then take these money and put it in smaller complexes. I donÂ´t know where is your area yet, but it gives more possibilities than a 85 unit complex for $1,6M.
You can split the money 33/33/33 ($115k) and seek buidings for max $350k or you split 50/50 ($175k). IÂ´m sure you find better deals when you be flexible.

-Uwe

Loc R. · Answer

78% of $1.6M, 30 years @ 6.0% is $7482 a month.
          
          x 12 months = $89,784 
          
          So...$124,051 - $89,784 = $34,267 NOI after debt servicing
          
          and
          
          $34,267/$352,000 (down payment) = 9.73% cash-on-cash return.
          
          How much experience do you have in turning around large apartment complexes?  For a 7.75% cap rate and 9.73% cash-on-cash return, I am hoping you have a great game plan in place.
          
          Since this seller sounds like he's game to creative financing, may I offer up another suggestion?  See if he'll take a 90-day (or even 6 month) moratorium on payments while you turn the place around.  That would let you keep more capital in the event that you run into unexpected expenses.

Dan Koch · Answer

Depending on the reason for low occupancy @ a 7.5% cap and 71% occupancy there is a big upside for capital improvements and having a great deal.

If poor management is the reason for low occupancy then @ 1.6mil I would say it is a good deal.

If  it needs a lot of Capital improvements and $$$ out of pocket to bring the occupancy rate back to a respectable/stable percentage 90-95%, then you are going to want the owner to carry more.

Daniel Yoo · Answer

Thanks for the reponses, this is what makes the forum such a great resource.
                              
                              Ok, here we go...

Proforma (assuming market rents and at 90% and 95% occupancy respectively) would be 12.2% CAP and 12.8% CAP.
                              
                              The owner has neglected this, he has properties in the East coast that he focused on more.  
                              
                              Historically, occupancy was as high as 93% (August '08-April '09).  But from his rent rolls over 2007-2008, he has been consistently at 89%.  Since Feb of this year, occupancy has steadily decreased and currently is the lowest it's been in the past 2 year rent rolls that I've seen.

Will Barnard · Answer

Your are lacking a ton of info for us to analize this properly, however, 85 doors for $1.6M = $18,824 per door which is very cheap. Is it in the ghetto? What are the average per door monthly rental rates? I can estimate by backing out the numbers, but the unit mix could make a difference. Which reminds me, what is the unit mix?

Going off actuals only which is all that really counts: $124,000 NOI / $1.6M is only a 7.75% cap which is way too low, ask price too high. Again, this does not take into consideratiuon the upsides to capital improvements (what are the repair estimates/condition of property) and occupancy stabalization.

The number you are missing which is a high factor is the gross income. Anybody can jive a NOI, what is the gross?
At 70% occupancy, we know that the OE will be well over 50%. Looks like an overpriced deal from the info provided, does not mean it is a loser though, depends on the balance of the info.

Uwe S. · Answer

Daniel,

Thats clear, with seller financing you have to pay more, but mind a CAP of 10%+ is that what you need, not the seller financing alone. When you buy for a bad price, you lost your down payment perhaps faster then you will.
And 71% occupancy is not a stable percentage, so you need more money for buildup this aparment complex.

-Uwe

Loc R. · Answer

Daniel,

$124,051 / $1,600,000 = 7.75% cap rate

As for the cash-on-cash/ROI calculation, what are the terms in which he'll carry the paper for?

What is the upside in this property?  What do you think the pro-forma cap rate can potentially be?  Why is it at only 71% occupancy?

Daniel Yoo · Answer

Uwe,

What's your criteria for a deal on the basis of Cap? 8.5%+?

I know he is selling it at a premium, but in order to get what I want (seller financing), I need to give him what he wants (cash and full price).

Uwe S. · Answer

Daniel,

Few infos here, but no deal for $1,6M. On the actual NOI $124k you have a CAP of 10% with $1,24M, with the downpayment you reach the CAP Rate, but a price of $1,45M is better with 25% down.

-Uwe

Analyze This...deal???

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