Has anyone seen an uptick in foreclosures in Jacksonville?

So this is a fairly common misconception...... in short, No.

The foreclosure process takes a looooooong time. Assuming foreclosures start happening this year (which is highly unlikely), best case scenario it will be 2022 before that inventory begins to trickle onto the market.

Florida is a judicial foreclosure state, which means that foreclosures are processed through the legal system. In 'normal' circumstances it's not unusual for this process to take over two years - often up to 4 years. 

First of all, usually a homeowner has to be over 6 months behind in their payments before the foreclosure process begins, and the recent government 'pause' on evictions and foreclosures will delay the process further. Even once it starts property owners are given many opportunities to catch up on payments and stop the foreclosure, and recent legislation will ensure that more assistance is available than it was during prior recessions.

Recent unemployment numbers in Florida are pretty alarming - but the data indicates that most who have lost jobs recently were making less than $40k/year. These are not people who own property; for the most part they are renters so they don't own any properties that could be foreclosed on.

That being said, I don't have a crystal ball. It is certainly possible that foreclosure activity could increase in the future, but regardless it will take time before we see any effects in the market. 

 

@Sarah Shockley I would disagree with you as I have seen many people under 40k who are in the "service industry" buying homes over the last few years with the great FHA programs available. Many with 3.5% down loans. Regions has some amazing first time home buyer loans. We can look at them and shake our heads and wonder how they are going to afford a house payment, but some do. I do believe there are more people out there finding ways to get into homes.

Jared - I would say that you would be better off looking at Georgia where the Foreclosure period is only 28 days. Florida is 90 days and some give people more time to get caught up. But there are always people that fall behind for medical/health reasons and now is no different. What is different is that the evictions have been quashed and will resume June 2. We will then begin to see how the rental market is, and subsequenly see if some people that are landlords are tired of owning homes and properties, especially if another pandemic breaks out this fall. Like Sarah stated, the foreclosures today will be a long time down the road, and even when they do hit, look for Auction dot com to be the clearing house for most of the bank owned property. 

following....

@Sarah Shockley makes perfect sense! Thanks for the feedback.

@Jack Bobeck thanks Jack!!

Originally posted by @Jack Bobeck :

@Sarah Shockley I would disagree with you as I have seen many people under 40k who are in the "service industry" buying homes over the last few years with the great FHA programs available. Many with 3.5% down loans. Regions has some amazing first time home buyer loans. We can look at them and shake our heads and wonder how they are going to afford a house payment, but some do. I do believe there are more people out there finding ways to get into homes.

Jared - I would say that you would be better off looking at Georgia where the Foreclosure period is only 28 days. Florida is 90 days and some give people more time to get caught up. But there are always people that fall behind for medical/health reasons and now is no different. What is different is that the evictions have been quashed and will resume June 2. We will then begin to see how the rental market is, and subsequenly see if some people that are landlords are tired of owning homes and properties, especially if another pandemic breaks out this fall. Like Sarah stated, the foreclosures today will be a long time down the road, and even when they do hit, look for Auction dot com to be the clearing house for most of the bank owned property. 

Slight clarification there. While Georgia may be a "28 day foreclosure period", every state is prohibited from the filing of any default until the borrower is a minimum of 120 days past due (Assuming its not a default due to maturity). Even a non monetary default is 120 days before you can start so, GA isn't really a 28 day foreclosure period state. If may be fast after the NOD is filed, but it takes 4 months before you can file it, minimum.

I think you and Sarah have a pretty good observation and comment position in general though.