Syndication Investing During a Recession

Syndication Investing During a Recession

Brian BurkePro Member
Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes

Investing in real estate during a recession makes many people feel like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. For others, it’s an exciting opportunity.

In my 30 years of real estate investing, I’ve seen my share of market cycles and felt the pain they deliver, but I managed to get through all of them without losing any of my investor’s money. Losing my own, on the other hand—well, that’s a different story!

Most at-risk during times like this are the investments you’ve already made. If you are invested with the right sponsor, who implemented the right structure, you’ll stack the deck in your favor for a good outcome. Thanks to recent economic events, it probably won’t be the outcome you planned for, but one that you can live with, all things considered.

But what about new investments? I’ve found that the best investments are ones made at the trough of an adverse cycle, and ones made during the initial climb back up. A notable example is when I bought 120 houses in the San Francisco Bay Area from 2010 to 2012 at the depth of the last cycle. When I sold them 5-6 years later, they had gone up in value by 2-1/2 times. That trade underscores the importance of timing. This cycle isn’t likely to duplicate that result, but it could present some interesting opportunities.

So, what about investing in a passive real estate syndication now? Making the right decision is more important than ever. That means that BiggerPockets’ launch of my new book is perfect timing (The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider’s Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications). It is critical that you invest with the right syndication sponsors and in the right real estate. This book will show you how to do both.

In talking with our investors about the current state of affairs and how they are planning their investment strategy from the short to medium term, we’ve heard responses ranging from hoarding cash out of absolute fear to those who view this as a chance to take advantage of opportunities that arise from the ashes, to just about everywhere in between. Where do you find yourself on that spectrum?

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Developer · Charlottesville, VA · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Brian Burke:

Investing in real estate during a recession makes many people feel like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. For others, it’s an exciting opportunity.

In my 30 years of real estate investing I’ve seen my share of market cycles, and felt the pain they deliver, but managed to get through all of them without losing any of my investor’s money. Losing my own, on the other hand—well, that’s a different story!

Most at risk during times like this are the investments you’ve already made. If you are invested with the right sponsor, who implemented the right structure, you’ll stack the deck in your favor for a good outcome. Thanks to recent economic events, it probably won’t be the outcome you planned for, but one that you can live with, all things considered.

But what about new investments? I’ve found that the best investments are ones made at the trough of an adverse cycle, and ones made during the initial climb back up. A notable example is when I bought 120 houses in the San Francisco Bay Area from 2010 to 2012 at the depth of the last cycle. When I sold them 5-6 years later, they had gone up in value by 2-1/2 times. That trade underscores the importance of timing. This cycle isn’t likely to duplicate that result, but it could present some interesting opportunities.

So, what about investing in a passive real estate syndication now? Making the right decision is more important than ever. That means that BiggerPockets’ launch of my new book is perfect timing. The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider’s Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications. It is critical that you invest with the right syndication sponsors and in the right real estate. This book will show you how to do both.

In talking with our investors about the current state of affairs and how they are planning their investment strategy from the short to medium term, we’ve heard responses ranging from hoarding cash out of absolute fear to those who view this as a chance to take advantage of opportunities that arise from the ashes, to just about everywhere in between. Where do you find yourself on that spectrum?

I have been in the business since 1997 and was heavy in real estate in 2009. I had several ground up projects I had just completed. I was in the process of converting the construction loans to perm financing and all lenders went dark. Not only did they go dark but they started calling the loans. I had $35 million in loans at 9% and close to $300k going out each month to keep the properties going. The Fed was nowhere to be found and there was no talk of forbearance. I was very fortunate as I had cash, great cashflow, I pulled all my equity out through the construction loans and all my loans were non-recourse and guaranteed by the entity holding the property so the lenders had to work with me. I funded all the deals on my own so no investors were at risk. Others were not so fortunate and the banks as you know were foreclosing on properties left and right. I finally persuaded the banks to extend the loans and sold through all my properties over the next two years so everything worked out but it was definitely a scary time and a great learning experience. I had never been through anything like that and didn't even know what a work out was prior to 2009. I continued to do deals and develop properties even during that period as I had cash and cashflow so even though these deals were technically in default and in work out a few other banks were still lending. 

Fast forward to today. This is a very different environment mainly because of the moves on the part of the Fed and the Treasury. They are not going to let the banks, credit and debt markets collapse like they did last time. Especially given the fact that Neel Kashcari is largely influencing the policy makers as he had a front row see at the treasury in 2008-2009. 

The only caveat is we do not know how long this is going to last and what the real and lasting effects will be on the consumer. The longer this goes the more likely things will take longer to recover. What we do know is there are always opportunities in every economic cycle. There will be opportunities in retail and office if you have the stomach and the capital. There will likely be several multifamily properties that will take a hit if the shutdown continues into June or July. Storage will most likely weather the storm and continue to perform however new developments may take much longer to fill so there may be some opportunities there. Mobile home parks are also very recession resistant and given the unemployment benefits the Fed is backing up the states with they should continue to perform. Industrial is booming right now due to the rise of e-commerce but you need to pick your spots as the old "build it and they will fill it" doesn't work everywhere when it comes to industrial. 

Personally I am opportunistic so it's a bit too early for me to jump unless its a really compelling deal. Investors are eager. I get calls every day from people looking to deploy capital. These are relationships I've had for years and they have all been sitting on cash waiting for a time like this. What I have found is those in my network who are liquid (over $100 million) are not concerned and are ready to deploy but they are looking for much more yield than 2 months ago. I have also found that less sophisticated investors especially those who have not been through 2009 are much more conservative and are not comfortable investing in anything right now. 

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Specialist · Plano, TX · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 861 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke Congratulation on your book. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Newport Beach, CA · Member since 2017 · 1 post · 0 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke balance of the two in this moment of uncertainty

  • Specialist · Columbus, OH · Member since 2012 · 176 posts · 98 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Brian Burke:

    Investing in real estate during a recession makes many people feel like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. For others, it’s an exciting opportunity.

    In my 30 years of real estate investing, I’ve seen my share of market cycles and felt the pain they deliver, but I managed to get through all of them without losing any of my investor’s money. Losing my own, on the other hand—well, that’s a different story!

    Most at-risk during times like this are the investments you’ve already made. If you are invested with the right sponsor, who implemented the right structure, you’ll stack the deck in your favor for a good outcome. Thanks to recent economic events, it probably won’t be the outcome you planned for, but one that you can live with, all things considered.

    But what about new investments? I’ve found that the best investments are ones made at the trough of an adverse cycle, and ones made during the initial climb back up. A notable example is when I bought 120 houses in the San Francisco Bay Area from 2010 to 2012 at the depth of the last cycle. When I sold them 5-6 years later, they had gone up in value by 2-1/2 times. That trade underscores the importance of timing. This cycle isn’t likely to duplicate that result, but it could present some interesting opportunities.

    So, what about investing in a passive real estate syndication now? Making the right decision is more important than ever. That means that BiggerPockets’ launch of my new book is perfect timing (The Hands-Off Investor: An Insider’s Guide to Investing in Passive Real Estate Syndications). It is critical that you invest with the right syndication sponsors and in the right real estate. This book will show you how to do both.

    In talking with our investors about the current state of affairs and how they are planning their investment strategy from the short to medium term, we’ve heard responses ranging from hoarding cash out of absolute fear to those who view this as a chance to take advantage of opportunities that arise from the ashes, to just about everywhere in between. Where do you find yourself on that spectrum?

     Being cautious... protecting our downside and stress testing occupancy and collections rates to new levels to make sure we can survive short term economic downturn in the worst case scenarios. We also used the pandemic to receive a significant cash credit at closing on a transaction we closed Mar 31 - a 256 unit in SC. With the discount and the savings in interest on the loan, we're hoping the pandemic is a blessing in disguise for the deal. 

    Congrats on the new book!

  • Andrew SyriosPro Member
    Moderator
    Residential Real Estate Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    6y

    There are definitely going to be some good deals in the next few months, both big, syndication-type deals and small ones, so it's a good time to get ready to find such deals.

  • New to Real Estate · Nashville, TN · Member since 2019 · 9 posts · 31 votes
    6y

    It seems to me one of the main things everyone can do to benefit during these times is while everyone else has hit the breaks, you keep your foot to the floor. Where is the process you may be, take this opportunity to get all your ducks in a row and be ready for when those opportunities do in fact become available, you can jump on them.  

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Duke Giordano:

    Interesting @Brian Burke, how do you see what California is doing currently effecting things there in the short and long term?  Values have been way overpriced in CA for some time, some areas more than others but now it seems nobody will want to buy and most will just stay renters when the buy/rent cost ratio is what it is there.

    It's really destructive.  The constant drumbeat against landlords in CA has made it a really undesirable place to own over the long term (which is why I stopped buying rentals here a few years ago and have been a net seller).  With the Pandemic response it's gotten even worse.  A complete moratorium on evictions (even non-virus related), a bill introduced to lower all rents 25% (I can't imagine that passes but you never know--even introducing it is destructive), statewide rent control that was voted down and then subsequently implemented by the legislature without a vote, the list goes on and on.  With that stuff squeezing landlords and environmental restrictions handcuffing developers it's no wonder why there is a housing crisis.  

    My guess about values?  Single-family homes will probably hold up (because of the lack of development), multifamily will probably take a hit because of rent and eviction controls, retail takes a hit, lodging takes a hit, office takes a slight hit (as working remotely catches on for office workers), industrial is anybody's guess (will businesses stay or leave the state ranked 50 in business friendliness?  I don't know but most probably stay, the weather is good and the workforce is world-class).  Rents will probably level off for a bit and then increase because of the lack of construction and the general undesirability of owning rentals here will further constrain supply.  

    Luckily for us and everyone else, there are 49 other states to invest in, some better than others.  

  • Rental Property Investor · Greensboro, NC · Member since 2019 · 24 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke i want to do more deals!!!

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Suzanne Player:

    @Kurtis Schreck 

    I've been wondering about this too - will this experience help people see the wisdom of having cash handy in case of an unforeseen emergency?  


    After the 2008 recession I thought people would wake up to the shocking lack of financial literacy in the middle class in America.  I also would have thought more states would make financial literacy a mandatory course for high school students but only about 17 currently have the requirement.  People graduate high school and don't know the most basic things that will affect them for the rest of their lives, like how compound interest works.

    But I don't think anything has really changed in America.  People still live paycheck to paycheck even if they have a high enough income to accumulate a reserve of 6 months' living expenses.  I'm not talking about people who make way too little and just can't do this.  Of course everyone understands that it's not possible for some people.  I'm talking about people who spend on luxury items and yet need to use credit card debt for even minor emergencies, in spite of making a strong income.

    Like relying on your CC and your Heloc for your reserve funds  :)

  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 338 posts · 444 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke, I've got all my eggs in the Bay Area basket, and it's done very well for me, but even I have to admit that the politics here gets old after a while. Even with the constant forehead banging with what's being legislated, however, somebody would have to convince me that Silicon Valley has lost its tech luster, or we've got an actual solution to the housing supply issue (hint... we're never going to) before I believe the market hit would be longterm. 

    And maybe something will happen. 10 years ago, the danger list was pretty much "earthquake" and "tech burst". Now it's those plus "Prop 13 repeal", "tech regulation/break-up", "wealth gap", and maybe there will be a tipping point when people just decide to leave. So the list is bigger than it was, even if we're probably not imminently in danger. 

    I do think one interesting potential positive coming out of the coronavirus, is that California seems to be handling itself quite well so far responding to the health crisis. So if there really is a large paradigm/cultural shift coming out of this disaster, and we 1.) handle ourselves better than other states, plus 2.) recover financially faster than other states like the last couple recessions, then that could become a tangible positive reputational beacon that keeps the investment landscape strong. 

    The name of the game here as a small potato investor like myself is still taking advantage of legislated market disruptions, whether it be rent control, ADU's, or supply constrictions. It makes sense that we wouldn't be a widespread syndication hotspot, though.

    Anyway, congrats on the book, and I'll be getting a copy! I would put you #1 as far as insightfulness and constructive commentary on the BP forums and podcasts (not that there aren't other great contributors here as well), so thanks for the time you put in. I'll probably be reaching out to your company as we see the other side of this, because I do have my sights set on diversifying my portfolio this time around. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2015 · 503 posts · 504 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Carl Fredrickson:

    I’m guessing one of the reasons it’s harder to find investors is that many of them are no longer accredited due to the drop in the stock market... borderline millionaires are now back to aspiring to be millionaires. 

    Ha! There was a good chance I was going to cross that elusive 7-figure mark this year, if the party continued, but alas, with the stock market decline and a few property sales up in the air, it's ain't gonna happen. No big deal, I usually invest in 506(b) offerings anyway. 

  • Wholesaler · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 124 posts · 81 votes
    6y

    Great opening analogy. I'm going to have to borrow that one.

  • Rental Property Investor · Fishers, IN · Member since 2016 · 337 posts · 470 votes
    6y

    Congratulations on the book....my copy should be arriving shortly!  If anything, real estate only looks more attractive in the long-term, particularly mutli-family. The Fed has cut interest rates to zero and may have to go negative. The old 60/40 stock/bond asset allocation model is out the window with bond values having nowhere to go but down and paying little to no interest. How does a retiree derive income from their portfolio?  Real estate offers stability and income, without the swings of the stock market, helping balance a portfolio. Cap rates could continue to get compressed after this little hiccup as more first time investors jump in the game.

    In the next 6 months or so, we will see who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out.  This will create a buying opportunity that we haven't seen since the great recession's early recovery years.  

    I believe in the short-term this situation has somewhat frozen markets. Buyers are concerned about deploying capital and if they do, they think they should be getting a deal. Sellers think they should get top dollar because we've been in a sellers market for some time now and COVID's affect on markets is still up in the air.

  • Kim Lisa TaylorPro Member
    Attorney · Saint Augustine, FL · Member since 2016 · 246 posts · 234 votes
    6y

    Update on my previous post: 

    1. Lenders are skittish and are requiring 6-18 months "debt service (PITI)" (not just interest) in reserves prior to closing;

    2. It's taking longer to do a raise right now than it did before so plan for extra extensions, and build in extensions to your PSA "for circumstances beyond your control" if possible; 

    3. To @Brian Burke's point, how long will it before we can network at live, nationwide real estate conferences again? Syndicators may need to consider new ways to network locally like getting involved with local networking groups instead of traveling cross-country to events with 100s of potential investors, at least for the near term. 

  • Specialist · Plano, TX · Member since 2020 · 2k+ posts · 861 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke Amazing. Thank you for sharing tour investing story with us and how you were able to come out on top regardless of the adverse times. 

  • Investor · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2017 · 95 posts · 130 votes
    6y

    "Pessimists see difficulties in every opportunity. Optimists see opportunity in every difficulty." - Churchill

    We tend to find that which we seek.

    Seek fear, find fear. Seek opportunity, find opportunity.

    It might be trite, but the choice is yours.

  • Rental Property Investor · Atlanta Metro, GA · Member since 2017 · 62 posts · 10 votes
    6y

    @Brian Adams Can I message you directly?

  • Syndicator of Large Apartment Buildings · Glen Mills, PA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Joe Ansley, sure you can message me.

  • Member since 2020 · 21 posts · 28 votes
    6y

    I have been looking at some syndications lately, and just curious if anyone has ever not been paid back at all or lost serious capital in a syndication?  I talked to one investor that lost over $100k in a syndication, and there was really nothing he could do at the end of the day.  He said the PPM he signed is basically a 100 page document explaining all the way he can legally lose all his money.  I'm just curious what others experiences have been?  I appreciate the input.

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y

    @Kathleen D. I had a friend lose her entire life savings. It’s one of the reasons why I wrote The Hands-Off Investor.  The book explains how to sway the odds in your favor.  I know a lot of people who have made a lot of money investing in syndications and those stories outnumber my friend’s outcome a thousand to one, but knowing what you are getting into is very important.

  • Real Estate Agent · Sisters, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke

    You maybe answering this in your book in which case I will read it once it is here.  But in a situation such as our current one do you automatically cut out distributions?  How/when do you decide to do that?  For folks who are using this money and relying on a monthly or quarterly distribution do you recommend passive syndications?

    Thx again,

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y

    @Eric Bilderback I don’t automatically cut out distributions, but you can bet that I’ll cut them in a heartbeat if we need to retain that cash to ensure the safety of that investment.  As a syndicator I always say that my first job is to not lose your money, my second job is to make you money.  If I don’t do my first job I can’t do my second one.  

    Current events don’t automatically mean distress, however.  If the entity is flush with cash and the income supports continued distributions, most sponsors would continue to make them.  But often that is not the case.  In some cases the entities have some reserves but not a ton.  In those cases taking a defensive stance would be prudent.  Some sponsors operate with very little reserves—those would be the most obviously at risk.

    I know a lot of investors that rely on the income from their syndication investments. Whether the investment is appropriate or not depends on a lot of factors.  If you rely on investment income, you rely on it regardless of what it is invested in.  That 
    might be stocks, bonds, mutual funds, syndications or whatever.  Any investment carries a degree of risk so each investor has to evaluate the risk-adjusted return and decide if the return justifies the risk.  

    If all of your money is in one deal and you rely on it, that investment is probably not suitable for you. But, if you have portions of your investable assets in a variety of deals, perhaps in different states or cities, maybe different property types, and maybe different sponsors, the strategy might be suitable for you because you have multiple points of diversification.  If one fails but the others don’t, the income you rely on might reduce but not go to zero. The idea is to eliminate any single point of failure.  I have a whole chapter in the book dedicated to suitability—it’s not for everyone.

  • Investor · Member since 2019 · 74 posts · 70 votes
    6y

    @Brian Burke  what would be the absolutely worst-case scenario that would cause losing 100% of investment like Kathleen described? assuming the deal was a reasonable one.

    something like 1906 SF earthquake that destroys apartment buildings in the bay area? would something like that cause the entire thing go belly up?

    I'm guessing even in a severe recession, you would use the reserve, stop distribution, raise more capital (reducing overall return). 

  • Brian BurkePro Member
    OP
    Investor · Santa Rosa, CA · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    6y

    @Daniel Han, there are multiple reasons.  A poorly-structured deal with an improper debt structure, not enough reserves raised and adverse market conditions derail the cash, uncontrollable bad debt that sacrifices cash flow with no ability by the sponsor to bridge the gap, uninsured total earthquake loss (or similar uncovered loss), nuclear war, just to name a few.  

    My friend that lost her life savings invested in an otherwise “good deal” but the sponsor was a thief—he literally stole all the money and ran.  Now he’s in prison.

    Yes, you listed a few remedies that can be used to “save” a deal.  They don’t always work, however.  If you think raising capital for a potentially good deal is hard, try raising additional capital for a failing deal in an adverse market cycle!  Not easy.

    This is why I emphasize sponsor experience and track record when making an investment. Experienced sponsors are less likely to improperly structure, and have more resources available to them to find solutions when things turn against them.

  • Roni E.Pro Member
    Specialist · Earth 2.0 · Member since 2019 · 598 posts · 271 votes
    6y

    If you are investor I would look at deals with Syndicators understand their method, process, deal flow and so forth. Get on their on list. I would be hesitant to jump in right now. We are early into this cycle. Focus on cash flow. I would also try to ask the Sponsor or find one that distribute monthly. 

  • Multifamily investor · Boston, MA · Member since 2017 · 281 posts · 521 votes
    6y

    We are actively looking to buy, but have adjusted our underwriting assumptions (e.g. 0% rent growth in Y1, no to light value add, if any, etc). There could be some good opportunities out there, as long as buyers and sellers' expectations are aligned. Many sellers refuse to sell at a discount, and many buyers are expecting 10%-15% price reduction, which result in a market freeze. When we find the right deal, we will move forward. Just have to be disciplined and understand that the world has changed, but the real estate game is still very much alive and kicking.   

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