Am I giving away too much on this spec deal?

Am I giving away too much on this spec deal?

Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes

Thank you to everyone for your comments on my last spec deal post, especially @J Scott and @Will Barnard.

I’ve worked through the opportunity further, met with local real estate agents and other developers to get their thoughts on the market, etc. I feel comfortable with the opportunity, but wanted to run the proposed deal structure by the bright minds here to get additional feedback.

This would be my first spec build deal so I am partnering with an experienced spec developer/friend and we would use his builder. It is our goal to do several deals together (me & the developer) and grow the business. We are looking at starting with this deal and doing many more in the future if all goes well. I understand I’m likely giving up a bit too much on this one, but he is bringing me a prime site in a great location that’s already tied up to help get me started in the business, in an area that is extremely competitive for new sites. His team is prepared to do this deal in the spring, but they are at capacity right now, but he’s offered me the opportunity to sponsor it to get involved now and get the deal going. He has already begun design working to get permits quickly, before a few regulations on height and basement ceiling height change in our city.

We would like to be in for permits before October 1, with the goal to break ground by early November. If we can accomplish that we feel good about having the home completed by the spring, which is a great time to list in Minnesota.

Here is the proposed structure with some additional notes below.

$325,000 lot (his builder bought a duplex and is offering us one of the 2 lots at cost)

$425,000 construction costs (includes architecture, interior design, staging, etc)

$30,000 financing costs

$40,000 closing costs / buyer’s agent commissions

$820,000 total costs/breakeven number (**we could fire sale the property at this price point in a matter of minutes if needed)

($150,000 equity, $600,000 loan)

$1,000,000 proposed sale price

Pay off:

  • 1.$630,000 construction loan (includes financing costs)
  • 2.$40,000 closing costs / commission
  • 3.$165,000 equity (my group loans the equity to the deal at 10% -- $150,000 + 10%; assumes I borrow all the equity at 6-10% as well so likely no spread to me)

= $165,000 gross profit

45% ($74,250) to builder (he gets paid on profits, no fees, but does not contribute equity)

25% ($45,375) to my friend the developer (he brought the deal, already has the architect engaged and plans almost complete, orchestrates the process, brings the team/expertise to the table)

25% ($45,375) to me (bring the equity, take out the loan, assists on process, etc)

The goal is for me to learn as much as I can on this deal and to hopefully be able to form a partnership with the developer going forward where we are doing several deals a year and both getting paid on all of them. Some he sponsors, some I sponsor, etc.

After this initial discussion, I’ve proposed two things to him:

  • 1.We need to negotiate a slight reduction in the builder’s percentage of profits
  • 2.Whoever sponsors the deal should take a 5% developer fee from the profits (*he said he has not done this on prior projects)

I have a full time job and am going to be relying on him to do a good portion of the work, but I recognize I’m taking risk by bringing the equity and taking out the loan. He’s said to me he wants to find a structure that works for everyone involved on this and future deals and is hopeful we can have a long term partnership. With that in mind, I certainly appreciate that a great site has fallen into my lap, but also sort of feel like I’m taking too much of the risk and not getting paid enough for that.

Thoughts?

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Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 452 posts · 309 votes
12y

I agree with what some of the other folks are saying. If the education is worth it to you, do the deal. You'll be getting paid to learn.

The other thing you should know is that the builder seems to be getting paid much more than a normal builder would get paid in this transaction. There may be a very good reason behind it, but just looking at the numbers, it seems off.

And lastly, since it's your money and you're taking all of the risk, you might want to set up an 8% preferred return. You want to make sure that you make 8% before anyone sees a return. To make it more palatable to your partners, you can set it up so that once your 8% is met, the preferred goes away and it's a straight percent split as agreed upon in the original deal. This means that you don't get 8% PLUS the split, just that you're guaranteed the 8% before anyone else makes any money.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Developer · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2014 · 208 posts · 101 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed 

    Sean, 

    I have some questions about your deal structure. Are you or your group going to guarantee the loan personally?  Second as a rule I don't put more than 20% of the gross value into the land. Even more aggresive investors may go to 25% but 32.5% just in the land is a bit much. Secondly how many sqaure feet are you building? What is the build cost per foot. Is the cotractor building at true cost? Are you controlling the checkbook to be sure what is being paid for what? How did you come up with the equity position for each partner. I think for 165k you could take on a lot less exsposure and make $45k. You being on the hook for 600k to make 45k??If you were at 25% for your land cost 250k, there would be a lot more meat on the bone.

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    @Kenneth Bell thanks for your comments.  

    1.  I don't think with my bank I'm required to give a recourse guarantee.

    2. I'm not sure I understand what you mean about the gross value of the land.  Are you saying we are paying too much for the land in your opinion?  $325,000 is the actual cost and that's the going rate in this neighborhood.

    3. We are planning to build approximately 3,500 sf at around $120-125/sf all in.

    4. The developer proposed this deal structure to me.  He typically splits the profits 50/50 with his builder and since he found this deal, has already started design, etc is suggesting he take 25% and I take 25% on this one.

    5. I haven't actually asked the question about controlling the checkbook.  I just assumed that was a given, but good point to always confirm.

  • Developer · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2014 · 208 posts · 101 votes
    12y
    • I would verify the recourse
    • A basic way developers put valuation on land. Land is worth 20-25% of the value of what you can put on it. I would pay 200-250k for land that I could put a 1 million for. Some may go a bit higher but 20% is my rule.
    • In the previous deals with the builder and developer who provided the leverage?
    • Your total cost with the dirt is $217 per foot. That is expensive even for a million dollar home. As you risk goes up so should your return. If you are building at cost 20% would be a minimum profit. I personally think you could do a flip or build a spec with the 165k you are going to risk and make 45k pretty easily.
  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    @Kenneth Bell thanks for all your thoughts.  

    In their previous deals, the developer brought the equity and debt to the project.  He was planning to do the same on this deal come spring, but offered me an opportunity to get involved in the project and get it going ASAP by being the sponsor.  If I decline to participate, he'll break ground next spring.  He has several other spec builds in process and doesn't have the capacity to start building this one until spring.

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y
    The 20 percent rule may a good framework but I think it is mostly situational. There are at minimum 20 homes being constructed in the neighborhood of my build (1/3 spec I would estimate) and all of the land was purchased for 200-300k with coverage limits less than 3,000 square feet and exit prices of 700k to 1M. The spec builders are practically printing money right now-- and so are the home owners who undertake these building activities. You may have very little equity at risk but with a personal guarantee of close to 1M I would expect much bigger personal profits. You are the only one with any skin in the game as a "sponsor".
  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y
    As for your fire sale exit price at the break even point-- this is an assumption that may not be true. Homeowners are fickle; a single design or construction element gone wrong could prevent a homeowner from purchasing a new construction home even at a deep discount.
  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y
    Take a look at this property and tell me what you think went wrong-- 1905 Shipman, Birmingham MI 48009. It was priced right initially at >1m. On the market for 120 days with 300k in price reductions and no action. It is readily apparent what went wrong? Houses are flying off the shelf in this area. It could be something as simple as the front elevation is not appealing to buyers. Who knows is my point- but their are no guarantees of a sale even at a 10-20 percent discount.
  • Real Estate Investor · Audubon, PA · Member since 2009 · 13k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    12y

    @Account Closed Here is a link to the listing for that address; please enlighten us as to what you perceive to be the trouble in it selling. 

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1905-Shipman-Blv...

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed thanks for your thoughts.  I really appreciate everything you brought up and it all makes sense to me.  Your statement that I'm the only one with skin in the game is a good one and that's why I initially posted the question.  I think the deal itself is a good one, however the partnership structure needs work.

    I don't know the market in MI and can't say why that house didn't sell, but it is clear from the pictures that the exterior is not attractive (that may be the worst use of a dormer I've ever seen).  Additionally, I can't see the layout, but most of the rooms appear small and cramped and it doesn't appear the space was used well or efficiently.  But your point is a good one and sometimes you just never know.  I am confident in my design ability and my knowledge of my market.  I have lived less than mile away from the location of this potential spec build for almost 4 years and know this area very, very well.  Most of my friends live in this neighborhood and it's no exaggeration to say I've been inside at least 25% of the homes in the neighborhood.  I know what sells and what doesn't and why for the most part.  Plus, my team is extremely experienced and has built and successfully sold several spec projects at this price point.  I understand that there is no guarantee of a quick fire sale, but if we don't make major mistakes I feel that selling a home for $820,000 in this location in not a concern.  This is an A location -- 2 blocks from the most popular lake in the city, 3 blocks from lake #2.  Homes around the lake are $2m+. This is one of the top neighborhoods in the city, the public schools are #1 in the state and the neighborhood held it's value from 2006 - 2009.

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y

    @Steve Babiak The link may be helpful to the OP if he was curious- thanks. I assumed most could locate the listing with a search engine. 

    I don't have any meaningful insight into cause for trouble with the listing. I am sorry if my post came off as all-knowing. I was merely trying to point out ..." who knows". Not me! The OP seemed confident in a protection of an exit price at a break-even point. Simply pointing out these assumptions reflect confidence that may not pan out-- and there is always risk inherent in these activities. My personal opinion; personally guaranteeing 800k worth of property for a 45k profit does not seem worth the risk. This particular property was an example of a spec build that doesn't seem to be panning out, and for no observable reason.

  • Developer · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2014 · 208 posts · 101 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed If you are  yielding $165000/835000=19% on $835k of exposure.You could do a flip or a spec yourself and get 19% return and end up with $31,350 for yourself. I dont know why you would take on the exposure for that type of return. I have built million plus homes and I have built $250k homes as my exposure goes up the reward should. I dont discount that you know the area very well. I am just sharing my opinion about the deal.

  • Knoxville, TN · Member since 2014 · 116 posts · 57 votes
    12y

    Seems pretty obvious to me why that house has not sold.  Its way out of line with the neighborhood.  Who on earth would build a 1.2 million dollar spec home in a neighborhood where the highest sale price is 600k with most 200-300k???

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y

    @Pat Martin It might be a local phenomenon you would have to observe to understand. An affluent community that has grown and expanded over the years with gradual investment--sometimes accelerated. 12+ sales within the past year over 600k; not sure where your looking at comps. A $1.34m sale four months ago in close proximity to the house I used as an example of what could go wrong. My counterpoint to the "be cautious" post was spec builders are printing money in my area. I had a dumpy 800 square foot bungalow under contract for 250k and walked away after finding a better lot. Spec builder bought, built, and sold 8 months later for 850k (you must have missed that comp too) and probably pocketed 250k. I would ask my neighbor why he choose to buy a 900k house next to a 300k bungalow but he's a pretty good red wings defensive player and a bit scrappy : )

  • west hollywood, CA · Member since 2014 · 37 posts · 3 votes
    12y

    Hey guys,

    My questions may be dumb but I'm a noob..

    Just to confirm, by 'sponsor' you mean that @Account Closed is the one personally on the hook for the debt?

    Also are personally responsible for the debt because the loan is under your personal name and not your business entity, or under you business's entity but with a personal guarantee required by the bank? Did you need to provide collateral for the the guarantee if so?

    In regards to the builder, is he taking a fee + percentage of profits, or just percentage of profits?

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    @Ben Johnstone there are no dumb questions.  And frankly, this is my first potential spec deal so I'm not totally sure about everything yet.  I'm just learning as I go and trusting myself to make good decisions as I move forward.  I'm fortunate to have BP and other mentors/friends in the industry that are helping guide me forward.

    Yes, I am personally responsible for the debt because I am the sponsor.  The sponsor is the person who is bringing the equity and debt to the table.

    Personally responsible for the debt because of a personal guarantee required by the bank.  I qualified for the loan based on my income, financial statement, etc.

    In this case, the builder is only getting a percentage of the profits.  No fee.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · Allentown, PA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 701 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed The house on the left appears to be a 1960s Cape Cod about 5 feet to the left of the property for sale for $829K. I wouldn't pay that kind of money. But I understand your point about the fire sale. As long as these are experienced developers they should know their market. The example you gave looks extreme, but that's going off photos on the internet. 

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y

    So let's take this in another direction.  Let's all agree this deal, the way the splits are currently structured, is too thin for the risk incurred.  Let's assume you want to partner with this developer and you both are hoping to figure out a way to structure a long term partnership.

    If he proposed this initial split to you, how would you respond?  And by respond I don't mean saying no, rather, what are some ways that you WOULD do this deal? Or how would this deal need to be restructured for you to do it?  What percentage of the profits would you need?  Let's figure out a way to make this deal/partnership workable, because even if I don't do this deal, I still want to partner with this developer and will need to propose a new structure that works on future deals.

    I'm going to tag some of the big spec builders as well for their additional input.  Thanks to all that have already replied.

    @J Scott @Will Barnard @Karen Margrave @Kenneth Bell @Account Closed 

  • Developer · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2014 · 208 posts · 101 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed 

    The first thing I would do is look at the rolls and value of each equity partner. Just from a pure business standpoint, I am not sure why a developer and a builder would bring you in unless they needed you. 

    1. 1. first assumption they need you or the deal does not happen because if they didnt need you then the would just build and split on their own.
    2. 2. Unless you are doing multiple homes what is the roll of the developer? As a developer I assemble property to gain the highest and best use. If you are building 1 house I am not sure what he is doing.
    3. 3. You are essentially hiring the contractor and then cutting him in on half the profit. Think of it this way if you bought the lot yourself and hired a contractor you would make a lot more and shoulder no more risk.
    4. 4 Some of the numbers dont make sense to me. Your build cost..a good conrtactor makes at minimum 20% on the what he charges.  So at 3500 ft * $125 per foot you are at $437,500 cost plus 20% of $87500= @$525,000+ land $325,00+ $40,000 closing+$30,000 debt service comes to $920,000 for your project if you did it yourself $80,000??? someting is not smelling right. That brings me back too what I said about the 20% rule you are either paying too much for the land or build cost per foot has some fluffiness to it.... I hope you got all that. Have you seen the settlement from when the land was purchased? I would hold the checkbook and be on top of all cost.

    My plan would be this. I would ask for at a minimum of 50% of proceeds and I an still not sure I would do it. I am not tryng to be a downer because I love creative deals but the numbers never lie. Maybe someone else has better insight on the deal.

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @Kenneth Bell:

    @Account Closed 

    The first thing I would do is look at the rolls and value of each equity partner. Just from a pure business standpoint, I am not sure why a developer and a builder would bring you in unless they needed you. 

    1. 1. first assumption they need you or the deal does not happen because if they didnt need you then the would just build and split on their own.
    2. 2. Unless you are doing multiple homes what is the roll of the developer? As a developer I assemble property to gain the highest and best use. If you are building 1 house I am not sure what he is doing.
    3. 3. You are essentially hiring the contractor and then cutting him in on half the profit. Think of it this way if you bought the lot yourself and hired a contractor you would make a lot more and shoulder no more risk.
    4. 4 Some of the numbers dont make sense to me. Your build cost..a good conrtactor makes at minimum 20% on the what he charges.  So at 3500 ft * $125 per foot you are at $437,500 cost plus 20% of $87500= @$525,000+ land $325,00+ $40,000 closing+$30,000 debt service comes to $920,000 for your project if you did it yourself $80,000??? someting is not smelling right. That brings me back too what I said about the 20% rule you are either paying too much for the land or build cost per foot has some fluffiness to it.... I hope you got all that. Have you seen the settlement from when the land was purchased? I would hold the checkbook and be on top of all cost.

    My plan would be this. I would ask for at a minimum of 50% of proceeds and I an still not sure I would do it. I am not tryng to be a downer because I love creative deals but the numbers never lie. Maybe someone else has better insight on the deal.

     Ken, a few answers I can give you.

    1. The developer currently has 5 other deals going right now and his equity is tapped out, as well as his capacity to take on a new project from an oversight perspective.  His plan was to get the permits on this deal set (because some new height restrictions take effect on Oct 1) and then sit on it until spring, when he feels he would have the time/equity available to do the deal.  So they don't need me.  That said, I have many, many years of commercial experience doing large development and acquisition deals.  My day job is as the head of acquisitions for a fund.  I have a lot of expertise (not with spec tho) and have been looking to figure out a way to begin working on my own deals.  This developer and I were connected by a mutual mentor and we hit it off.  We've met regularly for the past year trying to figure out ways to start a partnership.  I had an interest in spec homes and he in apartments and we both thought we can learn a lot from the other one.  We've looked at several spec opportunities in the past month or two, but none of the numbers have worked out.  In an effort to do a deal together, he asked if I might want to sponsor this one.  We are also looking at apartment acquisitions, in which I'd bring the expertise.

    2. The plan (as briefly mentioned in #1) isn't to do 1 home together, but many.  But we need to start with one.  The developer does 5-7 on his own each year and thinks by getting me involved he can increase that number.  But we need to figure out a way for it to make sense.

    3. If we paid a contractor the hard costs + a 12% GC fee, it would actually cost us more.  This contractor has partnered 50/50 with the developer on many projects in the past.  With this structure, he is incentivized to get the deal done well and on time, otherwise he makes nothing.  There are no fees involve.  The sponsor manages and must approve the draws with the bank, as well as sign off on the budget before things start.

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Birmingham, MI · Member since 2014 · 179 posts · 54 votes
    12y
    Ken - #4 above; builder is making his money on the back end in profit allocated. Charging cost during build.
  • Houston, TX · Member since 2011 · 673 posts · 360 votes
    12y

    My .02 on the deal is if you are comfortable with the margin, and stay involved with the process...it might be worth it.  If that cheap education gets you going the right direction then jump on board.  I would however make it clear to all parties that your profit take would be a one time deal.  It honestly looks like the builder is making far too much.

    Regarding the property that was posted for sale.  I can only compare to my home market effectively.  However, the level of finish, detail, and design in that house is on par with what we see in $200k homes here.  Home depot vanities and builder's beige granite is not going to cut it in a $1M home.  At that price point your buyers have an eye for design and detail, not "shiny stuff".

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2012 · 350 posts · 175 votes
    12y

    @Sam Craven thanks for that!   My whole take is that track record is the keys to the kingdom and its worth it in the LONG run to pay a premium to be schooled for a 3 to 5 deal frame.

    Then stuff like crowdfunding and all sorts of private money becomes way more attracted to @Account Closed .   I say this in that I think his plan is exactly mine in filling the resume gap.

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 452 posts · 309 votes
    12y

    I agree with what some of the other folks are saying. If the education is worth it to you, do the deal. You'll be getting paid to learn.

    The other thing you should know is that the builder seems to be getting paid much more than a normal builder would get paid in this transaction. There may be a very good reason behind it, but just looking at the numbers, it seems off.

    And lastly, since it's your money and you're taking all of the risk, you might want to set up an 8% preferred return. You want to make sure that you make 8% before anyone sees a return. To make it more palatable to your partners, you can set it up so that once your 8% is met, the preferred goes away and it's a straight percent split as agreed upon in the original deal. This means that you don't get 8% PLUS the split, just that you're guaranteed the 8% before anyone else makes any money.

  • Developer · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2014 · 208 posts · 101 votes
    12y

    @Account Closed  something about the numbers does not seem right. You are risking $800k in tuition on a job that pays $45k

  • Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2014 · 332 posts · 288 votes
    11y

    I wanted to thank everyone on this thread again for the great insight and input.

    After further thought and discussions with my lender, partner and builder, I've decided to pass on this deal.  In the end, I decided taking on $750,000 of recourse to make $40,000 was not worth it.  Granted, the project may go well and everyone involved make good money, but it didn't feel like the right structure for me at the end of the day.

    I have a lot of real estate development and acquisitions experience and while I've never specifically built a spec home, the education was not worth the risk in my opinion.  Without getting into too many personal details, it came down to the fact that I make a very good living in my day job (multifamily acquisitions for an investment fund), was offered an opportunity to be a partner on a large apartment complex deal I put together for my company in Nashville and allocated a good chunk of my equity towards that, and the fact that I've realized at this point in my career while I am still building up, I am not comfortable putting myself in a position where any one deal can wipe me out.  In the end, it didn't make sense to me to leverage everything I've built up over the past few years on one deal where I might make $40,000.

    One of the main things from this thread that stuck in my head was @Kenneth Bell saying I could make similar profits by taking on a much smaller deal with less downside risk.  I've looked at some entry level housing in my city and run numbers and he was right.  I'm now looking at doing a flip project where I can cover my downside pretty easily.   Going upside down on the $750,000 on the spec deal that was intended to be a "side project" would have sunk me at this point in my career. Down the road, I will take on those larger deals, but not until I have greater means to protect my downside.  

    Regardless, this is has been a fantastic learning experience on many fronts.  Thanks again to all!

    @Lynn Currie @Douglas Dowell @J Scott @Account Closed 

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