Spec build comp data

[Donald S.]

Good afternoon BP

I have an opportunity to buy a tear down and rebuild. This would be my first tear down flip. I'm trying to determine an ARV, but have some problems.

There's only 2 infill builds info the area to comp off of, other than a 40 home new subdivision that is still 1/2 under construction. The subdivision is about .5 miles away and would be good comps for what we plan to do. However what adjustment is appropriate since my property wouldn't be in a new subdivision, but instead an already established one (1956)?

My builder estimated $105-145/sf depending on finishes. So getting the ARV right seems paramount. The subdivision homes are going for 400-525k according to recent sales, but homes in the properties neighborhood are closer to 215k (all built circa 1955).