Where is everyone moving to?

Question

I created a heat map showing the population changes in each state over the past five years (2020–2024).

The states experiencing the largest population increases are Florida, Texas, Utah, Arizona, and South Carolina. On the other hand, the states with the most significant population declines are New York, Illinois, and California.

For Real Estate investors. How do you think these trends will affect them in the states with declining populations? Should they be concern?

And how might they impact the investors in states experiencing substantial growth?

Scott Trench · Answer

I believe that the technically correct answer is that they all moved from California to Texas and Florida, whereupon they realized that it gets extremely hot and humid in those places, has extremely variable weather, and large insects, and are now leaving Texas and Florida.

Marc Rice · Answer

It's interesting, but every state has dozens (if not 100s) of "submarkets" that can tell a different micro story.

Jackson Harris · Answer

Hi Justin, first off this is great and I'm glad you're looking at these trends before going forward.

I'm in Phoenix and obviously you can see that there are so many people moving from the west coast states out here to a cheaper and better weather market. I see it all the time, I did it myself moving from Seattle!

I think over the foreseeable future we will see this continue due to rising prices in those markets like California and New York. Definitely some cause for long term concern, but this also can give opportunity to other investors that are willing to invest out of state or more people moving to other states like AZ and TX with long term appreciation in these markets.

Cara Lonsdale · Answer

Phoenix is a huge city, and there are still growth opportunities within it.  However, Greater Phoenix is not solely reliant on chip companies.  Historically, we net roughly 65K Californians annually.  For many reasons, Californians flock here.  Lower property taxes, affordable housing compared to LA (CA buyers are usually cash buyers because what they net from their smaller home in CA can get them a bigger home here, often covered by what they net from their CA sale), allergies (smog), and politics.  As we have all seen, Californians are leaving in droves over the past couple of years, and fleeing to Florida, Texas and yep...Arizona.

As long as we continue to stay under LAs housing market for affordability, we are going to continue to net those homeowners wanting an upgrade to a bigger house or lot.  Additionally, the beach is still within reach...just a short 1 hour flight or 6 hour drive.

The Greater Phx area also has more places to expand, but be cautious of "island" developments that are separated from bigger cities.  In my opinion, it is better to choose an area with a path to progress.  Consider San Tan Valley.  Several years back, this was the expansion from Queen Creek, which was the expansion from Gilbert, Which was the expansion from Chandler and Mesa....you get the idea.  When you have a new area that still has easy access to an established city, it can flourish.  When you have an "island" it often dies on the vine until the path to progress catches up to it....think Arizona City.  When that area was built, people flocked to it for it's affordability, but over the course of several years, it became like a ghost town.  It has only been in recent years that it is starting to see growth again.  The path to progress is slowly catching up to it now....slowly.

There are many outskirt areas to consider.  The North up along I-17 where the Taiwanese chip plant is going in.  Even Northwest has alot of development going in, and the 303 is offering good support to connect freeway access over there. In the Southeast, Coolidge and Florence, where the path to progress is leading from San Tan Valley, and even way out West in the Buckeye and Goodyear areas are opportunities for growth.

Jeremy Holden · Answer

I can send a million articles, but i encourage you to go to maricopa.gov in addition to the city websites where you will see all the development going on here at a micro level.

Jeremy Holden · Answer

https://azbigmedia.com/business/economy/mesa-phoenix-rank-in...

Jeremy Holden · Answer

https://seidmaninstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/2025...

Jackson Harris · Answer

Consistent growth year over year. Past few years there's been more expansion and development in the outer areas like Queen Creek, but those areas have appreciated even more than phoenix/scottsdale.

Based on how many people have moved here from other states (specifically California, Oregon, Washington, and then a few areas like NY/NJ) along with the amount of redevelopment projects and the chip factory that was put in - I think there will be further appreciation for the foreseeable future.

Where is everyone moving to?

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