There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.
PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
You dont need to be a citizen of this country to own a business . A Illegal simply starts a business entity , gets an EIN and insurances . But the trick is they claim very little income or never file taxes at all . This is how they do banking . They start a construction company , work as a sub , the General now has been given all they need . They pay the sub by check , the sub deposits the check , pulls out cash and pays his guys in cash . If he gets caught , start another business rinse and repeat
OP Just for Kicks I'll go with 100% illegal alien removal by 12/31/2025. Not looking for either a positive or negative NET population change.
All topics and issues even in REI, I believe in using both Push/Pull tactics.
Push:
1. $100,000 fine for any company per individual employing illegal aliens. At a company I worked at, we had a 16 year old boy running a warehouse forklift using a 7 year old girl's social security number using the existing Federal employee validation process at the time. With AI or just plain data management, we should be able to catch quite a few issues.
2. No medical treatment unless legal status is shown.
3. No education benefits given unless legal status shown.
4. Housing- not worried about. If they can't meet rentals, the landlords will evict.
5. Darien Pass/Panama- There already is a couple hundred miles of JUNGLE wall there. Put in place a no pass zone there and along the ocean coast. Apply pressure and add economic industry on/to Panama and have them do. Immediately. Within 1 day.
Pull:
6. Green card/Student/etc etc permits/visa. Ramp up programs. You have 90 days to get legit.
7. Vetting systems for permanent immigration. Educational, monetary, medical, etc assets/skills. Any labor shortage areas, speed up green card process noted above. Educational- any STEM or medical fields give them a 3 year citizenship process. Monetary- they need to bring $XXXXX amount of cash in or monthly sources of income. All other countries I have looked at, require this. Medical- anyone with TB, Cancer, history of vaccinations, etc terminal or key health issues not allowed in.
8. Only allow 100 Political Asylum passes by the President themselves ever year. There are not millions, but Billions on people in the world with Political Asylum issues. They need to handle their issues at home. Or if we are that concerned about them, we need to do Nation building, which no 1st world country that I know of has been able to do long-term.
9. Do away giving citizenship based on birth in the US.
10. We need to move away from dependence on China for both political and also capacity reasons as their population ages. Move as much of that manufacturing South of Panama as possible. If they can make a decent living, they won't want to leave their families or go where their food, culture, and language don't exist.
What is the impact to REI? I see no impact at all, if the above are all performed in concert.
Just like REI. Why will I fail at REI. Should I make my first investment? What city is the best market? We will come up with many different immigration questions as this occurs, but you approach each the same way you would do REI.
A. How will they get back home?
B. How about the 25 year old, who was 1 year old when they were brought across the border?
Stopping the flood gates of immigrants is feasible. Mass deportation of 11 million people is unlikely. Let's re-visit this post next year and see.
More thoughts:
1) Using illegal workers is a crime x 2, first the worker is illegal already, and the employer is now acting illegally. Crack down on both, this creates nothing but problems. As @Terry Ouimet said...when you start off a project (or anything in life) from a bad/illegal foundation, it will never be right
2) Yes absolutely we need to bring back or start anew with a proper green card/work visa program so we can get all of the LEGAL help we need in this country. Just - Do.It. Right.
3) We need to 'export' every single person in this country (lol i know that's probably not really possible unless we bribe them) but then start fresh. Then everyone is welcome to come here LEGALLY and get vetted to see if they are decent people and actually have skills that we need and a possible job waiting for them. There have been other times in our countries history where we needed more population.... i.e. the Irish immigration. My mother's side of the family came through Ellis Island from Finland and contributed greatly to the USA.
4) Yes it is really hard on a jobsite to keep it free of illegals, you have to be on your Subs all the time, especially the Hispanic ones as they are more likely to look the other way. I made it a solid rule - no illegals on my jobsites. Did I ever have the occasional illegal working for me, either directly or indirectly? Of course, my main jobsites were within 20 miles of the border. Did I ever 'look the other way' ? I'll admit yes I did, but only in a couple of situations, it is just so tough the way our system is set up....so you can call me a hypocrite if you like.
5) And here is an 'outside the box' idea I've had for a while now - everyone says - "we have to let them all in, no one else will do those jobs". But - we all know (and the facts support this) many of those on welfare are fraudulent. So give those folks the choice...go pick veggies or lose your welfare payment. Lol, I can see that ever happening :-)
More thoughts:
1) Using illegal workers is a crime x 2, first the worker is illegal already, and the employer is now acting illegally. Crack down on both, this creates nothing but problems. As @Terry Ouimet said...when you start off a project (or anything in life) from a bad/illegal foundation, it will never be right
2) Yes absolutely we need to bring back or start anew with a proper green card/work visa program so we can get all of the LEGAL help we need in this country. Just - Do.It. Right.
3) We need to 'export' every single person in this country (lol i know that's probably not really possible unless we bribe them) but then start fresh. Then everyone is welcome to come here LEGALLY and get vetted to see if they are decent people and actually have skills that we need and a possible job waiting for them. There have been other times in our countries history where we needed more population.... i.e. the Irish immigration. My mother's side of the family came through Ellis Island from Finland and contributed greatly to the USA.
4) Yes it is really hard on a jobsite to keep it free of illegals, you have to be on your Subs all the time, especially the Hispanic ones as they are more likely to look the other way. I made it a solid rule - no illegals on my jobsites. Did I ever have the occasional illegal working for me, either directly or indirectly? Of course, my main jobsites were within 20 miles of the border. Did I ever 'look the other way' ? I'll admit yes I did, but only in a couple of situations, it is just so tough the way our system is set up....so you can call me a hypocrite if you like.
5) And here is an 'outside the box' idea I've had for a while now - everyone says - "we have to let them all in, no one else will do those jobs". But - we all know (and the facts support this) many of those on welfare are fraudulent. So give those folks the choice...go pick veggies or lose your welfare payment. Lol, I can see that ever happening :-)
It's actually easier to do than you'd think Bruce.
We have workforce centers across the country, they just ah, well heck can anyone say what they actually do? yeah, exactly.
So, those become the local "Command & Control" centers. Think of them like quazi employment agencies.
A person files for and get's whatever from of welfare. Ok, with that is a requirement to complete an civilian style ASVAB.
From that we now know the areas of there highest connectivity and probability to succeed.
With that, the C&C get's them a work assignment.
Now think of this "work" as a combination of trade school and actual work. It's active in the field career training via doing.
Oh, but you say what about daycare? EXACTLY. That will be one of those skills and those people assigned will staff the child care centers which is explicitly for those participants of the program. Or in low volume areas, a public/private partnership with existing child care centers.
And that's how it can work to provide more then amply assignments, via public/private partnerships. Employers who meet criteria can receive ___ staffing via the program which are wage and benefit supplemented persons via the program. So now an employer has the affordability to afford the coach/teacher manager and the over-sized staffing. With big benefit potential of possibly retaining "Graduated" persons who are now highly trained, proficient employees.
But what if people say no, they just want to Netflix and chill?
Ok, then there "benefits" get cut to that bare bones "survival" minimum. And I do mean the absolute bare minimum. So it means making the welfare system a tiered system.
Disabled and retirees get a certain level of significantly lowered hours and simple assignments, because moving is living and social interaction is needed not to mention there our elders and man we need elder wisdom this day n age so badly.
Those who want to be human cat's, it will be bare bones survival. Restricted food benefits, no fast food and cheetos, no, basic food, basic everything, SURVIVAL.
Imagine a welfare system that was centric to a hand UP.
The #1 reason people are poor, is lack of skills, knowledge, wisdom.
Proof? When's the last time you say a panhandler saying "will code for food?" I bet the rate of Engineers going homeless is all but 0.
Dr's, Nurses, Electricians, heavy equipment operators etc etc..
Skilled Labor is in desperate need and we have literally tens of millions of "human cat's" just sitting on the shelf.
We have the infrastructure in place. We have the demand. We have the people. We have perfect setting for private partnerships. All the ingredients exist, it only needs organization and leadership.
Trade schools and community colleges would be ecstatic for this, and if done it would be the "skills revolution" that the industrial revolution was.
And best part, all the offsets to it could readily make it a net-0 added expense to tax payers. It would actually be a net PROFIT given the huge increase to tax revenues.
US worker engagement is 31%. Yeah, a pathetic 31%. Imagine what just 65% would look like.
I will add this . One of my good subs has 25 employees , There is a girl in his office that makes a bit over minimum wage . She is a single mother with 1 child and one on the way and lives with the father who owns his house and has a great paying job . She has been not the greatest employee and they want to let her go but were afraid of a lawsuit . SO WAIT FOR THIS
THEY GAVE HER A RAISE , yes , increased her pay , more money . And she was livid , upset , mad , turned it down . WHY ? BECAUSE SHE WOULD LOSE ALLher benefits . So she begged them to fire her . BECAUSE if she quit she wouldnt get unemployment on top of the absurd amount of benefits she was getting . ( the amount she gets is between $50k and $70K based on what she showed a coworker) .
Oh , she drives a 2022 suburban which the baby daddy co signed on ( $47,000 )
THIS IS WHATS WRONG WITH OUR SYSTEM
OP Just for Kicks I'll go with 100% illegal alien removal by 12/31/2025. Not looking for either a positive or negative NET population change.
All topics and issues even in REI, I believe in using both Push/Pull tactics.
Push:
1. $100,000 fine for any company per individual employing illegal aliens. At a company I worked at, we had a 16 year old boy running a warehouse forklift using a 7 year old girl's social security number using the existing Federal employee validation process at the time. With AI or just plain data management, we should be able to catch quite a few issues.
2. No medical treatment unless legal status is shown.
3. No education benefits given unless legal status shown.
4. Housing- not worried about. If they can't meet rentals, the landlords will evict.
5. Darien Pass/Panama- There already is a couple hundred miles of JUNGLE wall there. Put in place a no pass zone there and along the ocean coast. Apply pressure and add economic industry on/to Panama and have them do. Immediately. Within 1 day.
Pull:
6. Green card/Student/etc etc permits/visa. Ramp up programs. You have 90 days to get legit.
7. Vetting systems for permanent immigration. Educational, monetary, medical, etc assets/skills. Any labor shortage areas, speed up green card process noted above. Educational- any STEM or medical fields give them a 3 year citizenship process. Monetary- they need to bring $XXXXX amount of cash in or monthly sources of income. All other countries I have looked at, require this. Medical- anyone with TB, Cancer, history of vaccinations, etc terminal or key health issues not allowed in.
8. Only allow 100 Political Asylum passes by the President themselves ever year. There are not millions, but Billions on people in the world with Political Asylum issues. They need to handle their issues at home. Or if we are that concerned about them, we need to do Nation building, which no 1st world country that I know of has been able to do long-term.
9. Do away giving citizenship based on birth in the US.
10. We need to move away from dependence on China for both political and also capacity reasons as their population ages. Move as much of that manufacturing South of Panama as possible. If they can make a decent living, they won't want to leave their families or go where their food, culture, and language don't exist.
What is the impact to REI? I see no impact at all, if the above are all performed in concert.
Just like REI. Why will I fail at REI. Should I make my first investment? What city is the best market? We will come up with many different immigration questions as this occurs, but you approach each the same way you would do REI.
A. How will they get back home?
B. How about the 25 year old, who was 1 year old when they were brought across the border?
We have been traveling a lot and have run across several approaches. These also tie to the countries politics, wealth or lack of leadership.
1. Your experiences. Canada. Socialist approach. Your foreign made you deposit.
2. Italy- my wife went in at 9 pm. Saw the doctor at 3am. On a slow night. Free of charge. Socialist approach.
4. South Korea. 1hour visit with doctor trained in California. Free. MRI $350.
5. Spain- 15 minute visit with Doctor to get prescription. Free.
6. Belize- dentist 7pm on a Saturday. Came back to office. $25. Paid him $100.
7. Belize- chiropractor. $30. 8 pm on a Thursday. Came back to office.
8. Argentina- researching investing. Doctors get paid $1,000 per month.
9. You in the US- lack of leadership. Actually this is a good thing going forward. See next position.
Nasty- in several of my posts I will note I like Nasty properties to invest in. We make mor money. If we correct our immigration approach. Everyone and their companies will pay insurance. Won’t use the most expensive medical care at emergency. Will pay for housing and food versus using shelters overnight. Social security benefits will get more funding. Reduced law enforcement.
Higher levels of immigrants both skill wise and financially. My uncle Manriku. Wife, 3 kids, 5 bags of clothes, $300. Now dentist with two offices, lawyer, developer, commercial real estate agent, West Point grad, etc. Whole family is worth about $25mm. God bless the US.
My point is we have screwed up immigration so much that there will be a ton of savings if we do what most countries do in immigration.
Let's put this into some context:
Let's say there is 12 million illegal immigrant's in US today.
Let's say 10% of them are criminal, with criminal intentions and criminal motives. Cartel or gang affiliates or what have you. GONE, there a target.
What is "cost" of that 1.2 million gone? Nothing, because there criminals, they cost more then add, so good riddance.
Of the 10.8 million left, say as many as 20% are readily found, are single guys, and are just kinda floating around with no real direction or anything going on at all. There aimless. Working horrible job, living horrible, no golden streets of opportunity found. Caught in stings at such places, gone.
What's "cost" of that 2-odd million? Very little too almost nothing because look at there life. They lived with others, they never had $ to live on own, and were of little commerce other than whatever place that was using them like a quazi slave.
We are now down to 8.64 million.
These are you law abiding, working, fair % families probably plenty with US born kids.
These people are not a problem. There not being in the LEGAL system like citizens is the problem. They work, live legally, yes there existence is an illegal one but reality is deporting them, separating US born kids, it's a mess and for no real positive because they are decent legal acting people.
So way I see it shaking out is once hit % of criminals and aimless are removed, THAN a process of legalizing the rest who live legally otherwise will be presented.
A window of time to present yourself, get processed, finger printed, all info set. Than a review is done to ferret out the criminals who maybe hide in this group.
Key point is WITH a SECURED border to stop the flood of 100k-300k monthly illegls.
Now maybe MAYBE 10% of these come back flagged for something. Some unsolved crime etc..
So end result, 7.8 million illegals now have conditional special visas. They have to keep nose clean, there now in the system, tax's and all regular everything. So we GAIN 7million + tax payors etc..
The issue of "dreamers" is resolved. We have a "reset" and can move forward as a nation.
Employers who prey on such vulnerable persons are screwed, and rightfully so.
Maybe I am an eternal optimist, but logistically this makes the most sense by far. And if this is the plan, it couldn't be announced at onset. Because that is telegraphing to the "bad" % how to evade. It would require being a process.
And with that, @Henry Clark may be spot on, it could be a "done deal" by Christmas.
And the impact to housing and the economy as a whole if this path is followed? Massive, I am talking MASSIVE positive.
So yet again, another housing/economy "eminent doomsday" is just hyperbolae. Again.
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.
PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
I completely agree with this take. While I can see the incoming administration "deporting" (technically) large numbers of people who cross and are immediately sent back to the other side of the border, I believe that the number of people who are deported from this country in the sense that they are ripped from their communities not immediately adjacent to the border and forcibly sent to another country will be less than 100,000 in aggregate over the next four years, and largely limited to violent criminals in red states.
This is how they do banking . They start a construction company , work as a sub , the General now has been given all they need . They pay the sub by check , the sub deposits the check , pulls out cash and pays his guys in cash .
"PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk."
Dismissed, actually more like Marxism!
I'd like to see back up of some of your assertions, Not hearsay,
i.e. Called my main guy this spring for some work. He showed with a young guy, We worked our butts off for 3 days. I picked up lunch, drinks etc. I went to pay them, couple of days work I'll pay with a check (1099) and cash it for them.
Hey Tony, I've got all O's info what's yours?
"Just Tony." Ok, some ID?
"No necessito." Whaaa, lets see some papers!
"No necessito!" Whaaa, empty your pockets!
"See, Nada, only new phone."
How do you buy anything or stay somewhere?
In very broken English:
"No necessito, US has free food! EBT! Section 8, nice housing! good medical at emergency! new clothes! etc."
:-0
Hey O, is this true? What's going on? You've been calling me a lot for work, and I've been referring you. What's up with this?
"Mike, 15 years ago I arrived in Mass, I was the only Guatemalan in Mass. Good people gave me work, I learned more skill, more money, worked hard! Now, recently, there are probably 1000 more Guatemalans like Tony, all undercutting each other!! I can do a roof for $300/Sq, they underbid me down like $99/Sq."
Yes, I've seen them, **** work and they're falling off roofs, not safe. I don't care if they're free, I don't need that!
"Mike, that's unusual!"
I could go on.
1. I see it as more like 50 million Undocumented (Illegally entered the USA) aliens.
2. I'm optimistic bad ones will be deported.
3. I'd like to see folks that are chosen to remain are vetted and documented.
Soooo Don't bother arguing with me about what I see and know. Actual experience I'll listen to.
@Jay Hinrichs I agree with your wife on the make up of subs! I'm seeing the same, Thanks
So far, our policy advisor has been spot on. Tariffs & deportation wise. Hearsay worked this time.
But as usual with DJT, this could go many different ways. That's always a disclaimer when dealing with his administration. Won't hold my breath that 100% of what we get briefed on is right, but so far it's been on point.
We have another discussion end of February, I will likely move it to top of March-- the main talk now is actually interest rates. Which to me is extremely interesting.
Is there anything tangible DJT can do to force the Fed's hand for the fed funds rate?