Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?
Real Estate Professional · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 225 posts · 74 votes
Mass deportations: will it affect rental markets?
Most Popular Reply
Mike TerryPro Member
Investor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votesQuote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.
PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
62 Replies
- 1yMelanie P.Pro MemberRental Property Investor · Member since 2023 · 1k+ posts · 922 votes
The massive wave of illegal immigration has added to competition for housing. Without question. it follows that if you could deport 5.5 million people quickly, or even incarcerate them pending deportation, that it would ease pressure on rents, housing prices, availability, etc. In my opinion, this will not have a major effect because new immigrants, legal and illegal, will always outpace deportations.
- 1yMike TerryPro MemberInvestor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votes
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
- Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes1yBefore I post, remember all - you can talk policy but not denigration of parties/personalities.
Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
I think your points are well stated. The logistics of removing that many people en masse are pretty impossible. More possible is reducing immigration to a net zero or negative number over time, which would have essentially the same effect as mass deportation but over a longer, controlled timeline. I think the short term effect on rents is virtually zero - illegal immigrants usually live multiple numbers to a home, rather than everyone having their own space like Americans - but longer term there may be some softness at the bottom levels of rentals.
i would be more concerned about the lower economic job market than I would be about rental housing. Talk to any business owner of the heavy, hard manual labor jobs and they will all tell you the same thing - it's almost impossible to get Americans to work these jobs at any salary, much less one that a company can afford to pay. People are just going to have to get used to paying higher prices for stuff like that. That may not necessarily be a bad thing, just reality.
Skyline Properties - 1yMike TerryPro MemberInvestor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votes
thanks JD. How about that some reasonable non political discourse without labelling and name calling. There is hope for America!!! sarcasm aside, thank you for your thoughts. Good perspective.
- Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes1y
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
I think it will have little impact on housing for several reasons. First I do not think there will be seven figures of people removed from the country. Secondly, if it does have an impact it will be contained to areas more to the southern borders than it would in Michigan, Massachusetts or say washington dc (just using those states as an example but northern states and higher priced areas typically have lower populations of undocumented people).
I think housing has a lot more other concerns ongoing than this, but this issue could also have a very slight impact that tied to the other 50 issues that housing has right now I am sure it will be used for political purposes.
7e investments53 Reviews - 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @JD Martin:
Before I post, remember all - you can talk policy but not denigration of parties/personalities.Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
I think your points are well stated. The logistics of removing that many people en masse are pretty impossible. More possible is reducing immigration to a net zero or negative number over time, which would have essentially the same effect as mass deportation but over a longer, controlled timeline. I think the short term effect on rents is virtually zero - illegal immigrants usually live multiple numbers to a home, rather than everyone having their own space like Americans - but longer term there may be some softness at the bottom levels of rentals.
i would be more concerned about the lower economic job market than I would be about rental housing. Talk to any business owner of the heavy, hard manual labor jobs and they will all tell you the same thing - it's almost impossible to get Americans to work these jobs at any salary, much less one that a company can afford to pay. People are just going to have to get used to paying higher prices for stuff like that. That may not necessarily be a bad thing, just reality.
I agree 5 mil undocumented are living Pad split style so that might equate to 1 mil units and this will be highly regional. Agreed the biggest issue will be labor especially on the west coast and say Texas were Hispanic labor makes up HUGE portions of the manual labor force and Agricultural.. your not going to get born and breed US citizens to work in the fields picking fruit .. Growing up on one of the Ranch's in Northern Ca my dad bought to develop 2k acres. We had 150 acres of walnuts.. And every year the same families came up from Mexico to do the harvesting for us and then returned . Very nice people and always brought us gifts :)
As a home builder ( small time 20 or so a year) I look at my sub base and if I start at survey and work through the house here is the demographic.. Survey white dig out white owned hispanic labor on the machine and holding the survey levels. Foundation white owned hispanic setting forms and pouring. Plumbing White owned white workers. Electrical white owned white workers ( licensed electrians). Framer white owned white workers but sub to hispanic company to do the second story and the truss's. Roof white owned all hispanic.. hvac white owned white workers. dry wall white owned all hispanic insulation white owned all hispanic.. flat work hispanic owned all hispanic workers, floors and tile Eastern block owned Eastern block workers speak no english do incredible work. Painters hispanic owned hispanic workers Landscape hispanic owned hispanic workers final clean Eastern block owned eastern block ladies speak no english. Window was hispanic owned hispanic labor.
How many are undocumented I dont know.. but I can tell you all of our labor trades are the nicest guys work with smile and will do any little task my wife and I may ask of them. These are hard working guys and gals providing for their families.. Hopefully though the fed will get rid of the gang bangers and the MS 13 and other really bad folks.
No way your going to round up 10 mil people logistics wont allow it even if it was like world war 2 internment camps for the Japanese. - 1yCorby GoadeBusiness MemberInvestor · Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
If anything, I believe this will have a tangible effect on inflation, which always makes hard assets more desirable. I can't imagine a scenario in which this makes anyone's life better, with the exception of values increasing.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
From my understanding deportation will work this way;
1) Removal of all incarcerated illegal immigrants.
2) Removal of illegal immigrants with a violent and multiple offenses within a criminal record
3) Removal of all illegal immigrants with any criminal record.
4) Removal of single male illegal immigrants-- no families will be deported.Expectations are expected to be about 1.3MM of deportation--including the first 500k in 2025.
This is just the policy I was briefed on. I think expectations on it impacting inflation is overstated if this is the case, and it breaking the country's back too. It's likely we will be net positive immigrants.
Much like tariffs, from what I have heard versus what I have read are vastly different.
I trust my sources, but then again it could be completely off.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
I think it will have little impact on housing for several reasons. First I do not think there will be seven figures of people removed from the country. Secondly, if it does have an impact it will be contained to areas more to the southern borders than it would in Michigan, Massachusetts or say washington dc (just using those states as an example but northern states and higher priced areas typically have lower populations of undocumented people).
I think housing has a lot more other concerns ongoing than this, but this issue could also have a very slight impact that tied to the other 50 issues that housing has right now I am sure it will be used for political purposes.
Housing main issues are permitting, cost to build, ROI projections, and availability in areas that have zero infrastructure to set up to acquire demand.
I read somewhere on here before about people disagreeing there is a housing short. That there's plenty of properties in the middle of the MW available & affordable. That's right and wrong.
There's a housing short, where it counts. It doesn't count if no one can qualify being there. If companies require you in office, and the companies are based in cities where housing is becoming unaffordable then inherently from a supply-demand mechanism-- there's a short.
For housing to really be addressed, there needs to be way less tape to set up ground up construction yet stricter rules on actual build quality not necessarily code. Then a hiring increase for local regulation officials or private sector to assess housing quality & approve it. Then, there needs to be an incentive for builder and developers to build starter homes not mcmansions. This needs to happen in the cities with demand and in the cities that have no demand, but only after there's incentive for companies to grow in those cities.
If you're a small cap company with less than 5,000 employees, limited debt, then these cities in the middle of Arkansas, Ohio, some other **** state, need to incentivize you to come here and move/create your HQ here. Force a build out, bring demand!
- 1yMike TerryPro MemberInvestor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votes
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @JD Martin:
Before I post, remember all - you can talk policy but not denigration of parties/personalities.Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
The country has massive debts and deficits. Our federal government, operationally does not function very effectively and certainly not efficiently. The cost to remove just one illegal will be in the thousands and way the government operates probably 100's of thousands of dollars. I don't see any possible way to accomplish this goal. The last Trump administration was much more show and bluster than it was effective at implementing policy. They successful cut taxes and loosened IRS enforcement. That was accomplished with the stroke of a pen. They unleashed pandemic handouts and loan programs that greased the economy (this was not well thought out, contributed to the inflationary environment we are still suffering from and PPP and ERP loans were flooded with fraudulent loans and benefits)
These programs leveraged existing corporate infrastructure (banks and the government had little or no operational involvement). The big difference here is some federal state or local agencies will have to be redeployed to take on this task creating a lack of services in the areas they were already operating. This will create more costs. Apprehended illegals will still be afforded due process (I presume since this is constitutionally protected for everyone in the United States). Anything requiring court or judicial decisioning is extremely slow. So we will be housing feeding and detaining millions of people for well beyond the Trump presidency. I suspect this is mostly campaign rhetoric that was popular with the current anti immigrant xenophobia that grew out of the pandemic both here and internationally and won the election, but the governments ability to achieve any real change in the population of illegals in this country would be very out of character. There will be some showy roundup of few immigrants (most likely only in Blue State, because every act of both parties right now is to be punitive to the citizens of the states that oppose the current administration), they will go after people with removal orders already in place, have a couple of press conferences and go back to improving their own personal economic situations. I hope I am wrong, but the above scenario more closely fits how the government operated in Trump first 4 years.PS before you dismiss this as liberal, communist, socialist talk. I am not a democrat, just a realist. I often think we forgot we the voters are responsible for all of this. We elected Trump the first time, elected Biden to relieve ourselves of the chaos of his first presidency and now reelected him because he promised he would lower the cost of eggs by pumping more oil. The binary choice was not a good one, but I wouldn't anticipate some remarkable improvement of fiscal responsibility or operational efficiency in this second act.
I think your points are well stated. The logistics of removing that many people en masse are pretty impossible. More possible is reducing immigration to a net zero or negative number over time, which would have essentially the same effect as mass deportation but over a longer, controlled timeline. I think the short term effect on rents is virtually zero - illegal immigrants usually live multiple numbers to a home, rather than everyone having their own space like Americans - but longer term there may be some softness at the bottom levels of rentals.
i would be more concerned about the lower economic job market than I would be about rental housing. Talk to any business owner of the heavy, hard manual labor jobs and they will all tell you the same thing - it's almost impossible to get Americans to work these jobs at any salary, much less one that a company can afford to pay. People are just going to have to get used to paying higher prices for stuff like that. That may not necessarily be a bad thing, just reality.
I agree 5 mil undocumented are living Pad split style so that might equate to 1 mil units and this will be highly regional. Agreed the biggest issue will be labor especially on the west coast and say Texas were Hispanic labor makes up HUGE portions of the manual labor force and Agricultural.. your not going to get born and breed US citizens to work in the fields picking fruit .. Growing up on one of the Ranch's in Northern Ca my dad bought to develop 2k acres. We had 150 acres of walnuts.. And every year the same families came up from Mexico to do the harvesting for us and then returned . Very nice people and always brought us gifts :)
As a home builder ( small time 20 or so a year) I look at my sub base and if I start at survey and work through the house here is the demographic.. Survey white dig out white owned hispanic labor on the machine and holding the survey levels. Foundation white owned hispanic setting forms and pouring. Plumbing White owned white workers. Electrical white owned white workers ( licensed electrians). Framer white owned white workers but sub to hispanic company to do the second story and the truss's. Roof white owned all hispanic.. hvac white owned white workers. dry wall white owned all hispanic insulation white owned all hispanic.. flat work hispanic owned all hispanic workers, floors and tile Eastern block owned Eastern block workers speak no english do incredible work. Painters hispanic owned hispanic workers Landscape hispanic owned hispanic workers final clean Eastern block owned eastern block ladies speak no english. Window was hispanic owned hispanic labor.
How many are undocumented I dont know.. but I can tell you all of our labor trades are the nicest guys work with smile and will do any little task my wife and I may ask of them. These are hard working guys and gals providing for their families.. Hopefully though the fed will get rid of the gang bangers and the MS 13 and other really bad folks.
No way your going to round up 10 mil people logistics wont allow it even if it was like world war 2 internment camps for the Japanese.Great insight thanks!
- 1yMike TerryPro MemberInvestor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
From my understanding deportation will work this way;
1) Removal of all incarcerated illegal immigrants.
2) Removal of illegal immigrants with a violent and multiple offenses within a criminal record
3) Removal of all illegal immigrants with any criminal record.
4) Removal of single male illegal immigrants-- no families will be deported.Expectations are expected to be about 1.3MM of deportation--including the first 500k in 2025.
This is just the policy I was briefed on. I think expectations on it impacting inflation is overstated if this is the case, and it breaking the country's back too. It's likely we will be net positive immigrants.
Much like tariffs, from what I have heard versus what I have read are vastly different.
I trust my sources, but then again it could be completely off.
#4 is a pipe dream!!! will never happen, but we will see.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
From my understanding deportation will work this way;
1) Removal of all incarcerated illegal immigrants.
2) Removal of illegal immigrants with a violent and multiple offenses within a criminal record
3) Removal of all illegal immigrants with any criminal record.
4) Removal of single male illegal immigrants-- no families will be deported.Expectations are expected to be about 1.3MM of deportation--including the first 500k in 2025.
This is just the policy I was briefed on. I think expectations on it impacting inflation is overstated if this is the case, and it breaking the country's back too. It's likely we will be net positive immigrants.
Much like tariffs, from what I have heard versus what I have read are vastly different.
I trust my sources, but then again it could be completely off.
#4 is a pipe dream!!! will never happen, but we will see.
I doubt we get to #4, and think that's more talk than action simply because getting there will be difficult yet it panders to the voices of one's that are heavily anti-immigrants. Let's see what actually shakes, same goes for tariffs.
- 1yMike TerryPro MemberInvestor · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2015 · 292 posts · 278 votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
I think it will have little impact on housing for several reasons. First I do not think there will be seven figures of people removed from the country. Secondly, if it does have an impact it will be contained to areas more to the southern borders than it would in Michigan, Massachusetts or say washington dc (just using those states as an example but northern states and higher priced areas typically have lower populations of undocumented people).
I think housing has a lot more other concerns ongoing than this, but this issue could also have a very slight impact that tied to the other 50 issues that housing has right now I am sure it will be used for political purposes.
Housing main issues are permitting, cost to build, ROI projections, and availability in areas that have zero infrastructure to set up to acquire demand.
I read somewhere on here before about people disagreeing there is a housing short. That there's plenty of properties in the middle of the MW available & affordable. That's right and wrong.
There's a housing short, where it counts. It doesn't count if no one can qualify being there. If companies require you in office, and the companies are based in cities where housing is becoming unaffordable then inherently from a supply-demand mechanism-- there's a short.
For housing to really be addressed, there needs to be way less tape to set up ground up construction yet stricter rules on actual build quality not necessarily code. Then a hiring increase for local regulation officials or private sector to assess housing quality & approve it. Then, there needs to be an incentive for builder and developers to build starter homes not mcmansions. This needs to happen in the cities with demand and in the cities that have no demand, but only after there's incentive for companies to grow in those cities.
If you're a small cap company with less than 5,000 employees, limited debt, then these cities in the middle of Arkansas, Ohio, some other **** state, need to incentivize you to come here and move/create your HQ here. Force a build out, bring demand!
I live in Florida and hold properties in Southern Georgia. We have had a lot construction work recently and all of the people doing the work are Hispanic, don't speak English, due to hurricane damage. They do great work are very warm and friendly. If this is representative of the construction industry around other markets in the nation and assuming many of these workers are undocumented (they may very well be legally working here, but having been through the immigration process myself, that would be difficult) the impact on construction would be massive. So like my original post the federal government does not have the operational ability our financial backing to accomplish deporting 11MM people.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Mike Terry:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Alex Silang:
There are 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. If even just a quarter of them are removed, don't you think it would greatly affect housing markets? That'd be 2-3 million people not needing housing in the US any longer.
I think it will have little impact on housing for several reasons. First I do not think there will be seven figures of people removed from the country. Secondly, if it does have an impact it will be contained to areas more to the southern borders than it would in Michigan, Massachusetts or say washington dc (just using those states as an example but northern states and higher priced areas typically have lower populations of undocumented people).
I think housing has a lot more other concerns ongoing than this, but this issue could also have a very slight impact that tied to the other 50 issues that housing has right now I am sure it will be used for political purposes.
Housing main issues are permitting, cost to build, ROI projections, and availability in areas that have zero infrastructure to set up to acquire demand.
I read somewhere on here before about people disagreeing there is a housing short. That there's plenty of properties in the middle of the MW available & affordable. That's right and wrong.
There's a housing short, where it counts. It doesn't count if no one can qualify being there. If companies require you in office, and the companies are based in cities where housing is becoming unaffordable then inherently from a supply-demand mechanism-- there's a short.
For housing to really be addressed, there needs to be way less tape to set up ground up construction yet stricter rules on actual build quality not necessarily code. Then a hiring increase for local regulation officials or private sector to assess housing quality & approve it. Then, there needs to be an incentive for builder and developers to build starter homes not mcmansions. This needs to happen in the cities with demand and in the cities that have no demand, but only after there's incentive for companies to grow in those cities.
If you're a small cap company with less than 5,000 employees, limited debt, then these cities in the middle of Arkansas, Ohio, some other **** state, need to incentivize you to come here and move/create your HQ here. Force a build out, bring demand!
I live in Florida and hold properties in Southern Georgia. We have had a lot construction work recently and all of the people doing the work are Hispanic, don't speak English, due to hurricane damage. They do great work are very warm and friendly. If this is representative of the construction industry around other markets in the nation and assuming many of these workers are undocumented (they may very well be legally working here, but having been through the immigration process myself, that would be difficult) the impact on construction would be massive. So like my original post the federal government does not have the operational ability our financial backing to accomplish deporting 11MM people.
No one expects them to deport 11MM people. No one has ever given that as a projection or expectation. The briefing I got which I shared was 12% of that count over 4 years.
- Severna Park, MD · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes1y
I believe that it will effect the rental market harder in blue states than red states due to the sanctuary city policies . To get the biggest bang for the buck , I would go where the highest concentration of illegals live . Why catch 5 when you can catch 50 in one sweep .
I believe that they will go after criminals first , then go to businesses that employ a large group , then to areas where a majority live . Once this starts , a lot will self deport .
But only time will tell
- 1yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
They have said they will start tomorow in many cities, including Chicago. Typically, most politicians talk more than act, but I believe this time is different. The previous administration, allowing such as huge number of people to cross, has made it necessary for the new administration to act quickly and forceably.
If you have seen Tom Homan talk, there is little doubt that a lot will happen, and quickly...
Of course, we cannot logistically remove everyone, but even a couple million people booted out will open up housing...it just has to......
- Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
Once the taxpayer-funded benefits are turned off and some larger companies are made examples for hiring illegals, many will self-deport. In my area, most illegals live in trashed-out rentals with multi-generational family members or co-workers, so I doubt the housing market will be greatly impacted, at least not in my region.
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
They have said they will start tomorow in many cities, including Chicago. Typically, most politicians talk more than act, but I believe this time is different. The previous administration, allowing such as huge number of people to cross, has made it necessary for the new administration to act quickly and forceably.
If you have seen Tom Homan talk, there is little doubt that a lot will happen, and quickly...
Of course, we cannot logistically remove everyone, but even a couple million people booted out will open up housing...it just has to......
Tom Homan talks a lot, what he fails to address is the funding. The way he addresses it will be the funding will magically appear; it won't. It'll be more constructive.
There won't be an overnight deportation of 2m people. It'll be the lowest hanging fruit first--the already incarcerated-- due to funds.
Then it'll be the most criminally profiled, and usually those are in groups due to gang activity and arguably will cost the most to remove simply due to state-based policies being more lax and their ability to run but not hide. This is the point where funding will be a problem.
You'll see the Trump administration use tariffs as a way to get Mexico to open them back to exposure of such criminals, and herd them back in.
Tomorrow, we'll get more clarity clearly.
The other aspect is cost cutting and revenue because that'll add to how we address immigration-- the funding behind the policy is every bit as important. Pretty confident we slap tariffs on Europe to the tune of 25-30% immediately, and then threaten China/Mexico to impose by July or August if they don't revert or establish some policies to our (trade & immigration) benefit.
This overnight belief that we'll kick out 20% of illegal immigrants and impose 30% tariffs globally with seizing Panama, Canada, and Greenland is just a farce. We'll use all of it in our angle; EU tariffs will absolutely come with cars being a focal point due to Elon, and Greenland as a far reaching peace mechanism albeit highly unlikely, Panama being ran right or S.America resistance in trade/funding relations. The discussion of oil & energy will be absolutely pivotal too.
He's creating angles with all this talk, the functionality is going to require pressure on the global market because we simply don't have the funds to do it all without dollar devaluation.
- 1yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
They have said they will start tomorow in many cities, including Chicago. Typically, most politicians talk more than act, but I believe this time is different. The previous administration, allowing such as huge number of people to cross, has made it necessary for the new administration to act quickly and forceably.
If you have seen Tom Homan talk, there is little doubt that a lot will happen, and quickly...
Of course, we cannot logistically remove everyone, but even a couple million people booted out will open up housing...it just has to......
Tom Homan talks a lot, what he fails to address is the funding. The way he addresses it will be the funding will magically appear; it won't. It'll be more constructive.
There won't be an overnight deportation of 2m people. It'll be the lowest hanging fruit first--the already incarcerated-- due to funds.
Then it'll be the most criminally profiled, and usually those are in groups due to gang activity and arguably will cost the most to remove simply due to state-based policies being more lax and their ability to run but not hide. This is the point where funding will be a problem.
You'll see the Trump administration use tariffs as a way to get Mexico to open them back to exposure of such criminals, and herd them back in.
Tomorrow, we'll get more clarity clearly.
The other aspect is cost cutting and revenue because that'll add to how we address immigration-- the funding behind the policy is every bit as important. Pretty confident we slap tariffs on Europe to the tune of 25-30% immediately, and then threaten China/Mexico to impose by July or August if they don't revert or establish some policies to our (trade & immigration) benefit.
This overnight belief that we'll kick out 20% of illegal immigrants and impose 30% tariffs globally with seizing Panama, Canada, and Greenland is just a farce. We'll use all of it in our angle; EU tariffs will absolutely come with cars being a focal point due to Elon, and Greenland as a far reaching peace mechanism albeit highly unlikely, Panama being ran right or S.America resistance in trade/funding relations. The discussion of oil & energy will be absolutely pivotal too.
He's creating angles with all this talk, the functionality is going to require pressure on the global market because we simply don't have the funds to do it all without dollar devaluation.
The house will March in lockstep to approve needed funding, regardless of whether we actually have the money or not. That doesn't seem to stop all those clowns in DC. And I doubt anybody expects 20% of the illegals gone in the first week but I bet you there will be by the end of this year. Just my two cents...
- 1yHenry ClarkPro MemberDeveloper · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
OP Just for Kicks I'll go with 100% illegal alien removal by 12/31/2025. Not looking for either a positive or negative NET population change.
All topics and issues even in REI, I believe in using both Push/Pull tactics.
Push:
1. $100,000 fine for any company per individual employing illegal aliens. At a company I worked at, we had a 16 year old boy running a warehouse forklift using a 7 year old girl's social security number using the existing Federal employee validation process at the time. With AI or just plain data management, we should be able to catch quite a few issues.
2. No medical treatment unless legal status is shown.
3. No education benefits given unless legal status shown.
4. Housing- not worried about. If they can't meet rentals, the landlords will evict.
5. Darien Pass/Panama- There already is a couple hundred miles of JUNGLE wall there. Put in place a no pass zone there and along the ocean coast. Apply pressure and add economic industry on/to Panama and have them do. Immediately. Within 1 day.
Pull:
6. Green card/Student/etc etc permits/visa. Ramp up programs. You have 90 days to get legit.
7. Vetting systems for permanent immigration. Educational, monetary, medical, etc assets/skills. Any labor shortage areas, speed up green card process noted above. Educational- any STEM or medical fields give them a 3 year citizenship process. Monetary- they need to bring $XXXXX amount of cash in or monthly sources of income. All other countries I have looked at, require this. Medical- anyone with TB, Cancer, history of vaccinations, etc terminal or key health issues not allowed in.
8. Only allow 100 Political Asylum passes by the President themselves ever year. There are not millions, but Billions on people in the world with Political Asylum issues. They need to handle their issues at home. Or if we are that concerned about them, we need to do Nation building, which no 1st world country that I know of has been able to do long-term.
9. Do away giving citizenship based on birth in the US.
10. We need to move away from dependence on China for both political and also capacity reasons as their population ages. Move as much of that manufacturing South of Panama as possible. If they can make a decent living, they won't want to leave their families or go where their food, culture, and language don't exist.
What is the impact to REI? I see no impact at all, if the above are all performed in concert.
Just like REI. Why will I fail at REI. Should I make my first investment? What city is the best market? We will come up with many different immigration questions as this occurs, but you approach each the same way you would do REI.
A. How will they get back home?
B. How about the 25 year old, who was 1 year old when they were brought across the border?
- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
They have said they will start tomorow in many cities, including Chicago. Typically, most politicians talk more than act, but I believe this time is different. The previous administration, allowing such as huge number of people to cross, has made it necessary for the new administration to act quickly and forceably.
If you have seen Tom Homan talk, there is little doubt that a lot will happen, and quickly...
Of course, we cannot logistically remove everyone, but even a couple million people booted out will open up housing...it just has to......
Tom Homan talks a lot, what he fails to address is the funding. The way he addresses it will be the funding will magically appear; it won't. It'll be more constructive.
There won't be an overnight deportation of 2m people. It'll be the lowest hanging fruit first--the already incarcerated-- due to funds.
Then it'll be the most criminally profiled, and usually those are in groups due to gang activity and arguably will cost the most to remove simply due to state-based policies being more lax and their ability to run but not hide. This is the point where funding will be a problem.
You'll see the Trump administration use tariffs as a way to get Mexico to open them back to exposure of such criminals, and herd them back in.
Tomorrow, we'll get more clarity clearly.
The other aspect is cost cutting and revenue because that'll add to how we address immigration-- the funding behind the policy is every bit as important. Pretty confident we slap tariffs on Europe to the tune of 25-30% immediately, and then threaten China/Mexico to impose by July or August if they don't revert or establish some policies to our (trade & immigration) benefit.
This overnight belief that we'll kick out 20% of illegal immigrants and impose 30% tariffs globally with seizing Panama, Canada, and Greenland is just a farce. We'll use all of it in our angle; EU tariffs will absolutely come with cars being a focal point due to Elon, and Greenland as a far reaching peace mechanism albeit highly unlikely, Panama being ran right or S.America resistance in trade/funding relations. The discussion of oil & energy will be absolutely pivotal too.
He's creating angles with all this talk, the functionality is going to require pressure on the global market because we simply don't have the funds to do it all without dollar devaluation.
The house will March in lockstep to approve needed funding, regardless of whether we actually have the money or not. That doesn't seem to stop all those clowns in DC. And I doubt anybody expects 20% of the illegals gone in the first week but I bet you there will be by the end of this year. Just my two cents...
Think north of 2.2mil deported by EOY 2025?
- Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes1y
It's uncertain what will happen with deportations but it is certain that the border will be materially closed down. That will definitely increase blue collar wages in certain industries and decrease rental demand in certain submarkets over the course of years.
- 1yBruce WoodruffPro MemberContractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
I of course have no real idea, but based on observations and years of being a political junkie of sorts......I think that number is about right. That would be about 10% of the new arrivals since Joe took office.
- Investor · Fort Washington, MD · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
If anything is done and that's a big if, it will not only impact the rental market. Deporting millions of people will cost billions of dollars. I cant imagine the impact on labor and the vast degree of trade skills that will be leaving as well. Billions in sales tax and other taxes sucked directly out of the economy. There are also millions of households of undocumented individuals holding mortgages. Mass default rates. Higher rates? How many of those mixed households will be plunged into poverty with millions more relegated free and reduced lunch. We shall see but it may all be just typical yap yap. If done, in light of all that I guess some will feel much happier when walking though Home Depot parking lot.
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