🧪 New Build Deployment Model: Feedback Requested | Challenge Our Investment Thesis

[Robert Ellis]

🏗️ New Build Deployment Model & Case Study

📍 400 Miller Ave | Near East District, Columbus, OH

💼 Our Investment Thesis:

At our core, we believe in conservatively underwritten, strategically oversized homes that outperform both in absorption and appraised value.

Key principles of our thesis:

• Overbuild with discipline — We aim to match or exceed local comp sizes, not chase artificially low price points.
• Avoid underbuilding risk — Undersized homes often suffer appraisal issues, poor comparables, and longer time-on-market.
• Target premium infill submarkets — We focus where buyers pay more for location, size, and finishes.
• Model conservatively — We underwrite with 8% exit cost assumptions, market-average pricing, and worst-case financing terms.
• Require strong returns —
  • Unlevered return (project-based): ≥ 20%
  • Annualized IRR: ≥ 25% 
  • Levered Returns over 100%
    

📍 Site Overview: 400 Miller Ave

• Located just outside Olde Towne East
• By-right zoning
• No historic oversight
• 45-day permit timeline
• Land cost: $70,000

We’ve custom-designed a plan here to reflect true buyer demand — not developer preference.

🧱 The Floorplan (2,700 sf)

• 🛏 3 Beds
• 🛁 3 Baths
• 🧩 Full Basement
• 🚗 Attached Garage (90% of comps are detached)
• 🧱 $375,000 Hard Cost + $5,000 Soft = $380,000 Total Build
• 💲 $140.74/sf Build Cost

📊 Comparable Sales (2024–2025)

Address	Sq Ft	Sale Price	$/Sq Ft
336 Loeffler Ave	2,862	$665,000	$243
1357 Carrie Ave	2,752	$625,000	$227
1361 Carrie Ave	2,668	$645,000	$242
1353 Carrie Ave	2,536	$625,000	$246
1365 Carrie Ave	3,262	$700,000	$214
1105 E Rich Street	3,249	$755,000	$265 🔥

📍 All homes include basements
📊 Average Sale Price: $669,167
💰 Average Price/SF: $247.84

💵 Financial Model – Average Exit Scenario

Metric	Value
Build Size	2,700 sf
Build + Soft Costs	$380,000
Build Cost / SF	$140.74
Average Exit Price (from comps)	$669,167
Sale Proceeds (after 8% fees)	$615,634
Total Project Cost (incl. loan fees & interest)	$480,353
Equity Used (15% down + lot)	$127,000
Profit (project-based)	$135,280
ROE (Leveraged)	106.5%
Unleveraged Return (Project)	> 20% ✅
Estimated IRR (Annualized)	~160%+ ✅

💡 How This Fits the Thesis

• ✔️ We’re not chasing starter home pricing — we’re building where buyers pay for space.
• ✔️ We're priced with comps, not above them.
• ✔️ A 2,700 sf home at $247/sf aligns directly with recent sales.
• ✔️ We assume higher financing costs and average exit pricing, yet still hit our return thresholds.

🧠 Investor + Lender Discussion Points:

🏦 Lenders — We Want Your Input Too:

To get 15% down, we assume:

• Borrower has 3+ new builds in the past 5 years
• Clean execution record
• Comps support at or above projected price

📣 This is an open-sourced case study — we’re here to improve.
👇 Push back. Recommend changes. Or confirm the play.