Is NOW the time to buy?

[Lesley Resnick]

As long as I have been on this site, about 10 years, people have been clamoring for the the prices of the 2009 crash days.  I have always been of the opinion that we should not root for a crashing economy, a lot of people will be hurt.  The distressed housing crash business, is not a zero sum game.  For someone to get a killer deal, someone else must give up their property at a low cost.

The details are different this time, but there could be a lot of people pushed into a fire sale of properties.  If you have cash reserves and stable income, it is time to take a good hard look at the market again.

Contributing factors:

1. Health insurance premiums are going up significantly.  This is going to effects the middle more than the lower end of earners.  The lowest portion will simply go without insurance.  The middle will pay the higher premiums, since they risk losing what they have built.

2.  The government closure.  Jacksonville does not have a large federal employee base.  However, we have 2 large military installations that make up a measurable percentage of our city.  The military pays rents through stipend and direct payment.  The DOD estimates that every dollar brought to a community has a multiplier of 5x.

3.  Food assistance ,SNAP, will not be paid on 10/1.  Faced with a choice of buying food or paying rent, people will feed their kids.

This has the makings of a perfect storm.  

Additionally, inflation is running high and interest rates are dropping.  This could be the time to look at a cash out refi?

The batteries in my crystal ball are running low and I can not predict what will happen, I am just reporting what I am seeing.

[Elealeh Fulmaran]

You’re right to watch the storm clouds, but don’t freeze. Shore up reserves, extend your runway on any variable debt, and underwrite with wider stress bands on rent, expenses, and vacancy. Hunt for motivated but fixable situations where you can buy for cash flow first, then force value with tight, needs-based rehabs. If you consider a cash‑out refi, make sure the new payment still pencils under conservative rents and factor closing costs twice if you plan to refi again. Action step: pick one submarket, run five deals a week through a strict buy box, and only pursue what survives your worst‑case sheet.