What Is The Next “Guru Training” Shiny Object to Watch For This Year?

[Chris Seveney]

If you look at prior years, the pattern is pretty clear.

1. Subject-to was repackaged as new, while the real risks around due-on-sale, insurance, and long-term liability were rarely emphasized, also highlighted as "creative finance".

2. Short-term rental arbitrage was sold as controlling assets with no capital, until regulation, lease enforcement, and seasonality showed up, especially during covid.

3.Wholesaling on the MLS promised volume over skill, as quick dollars.

None of these were new strategies. They were timing plays, marketed hardest to rookies about "anyone can do this with no money"

What will it be this year. My guess: this year’s version will likely be the same strategies with a new wrapper: AI-powered real estate investing.

Expect claims around AI finding deals, underwriting instantly, or replacing experience with automation. Tools can improve efficiency, but they do not change risk, capital costs, or market cycles. Bad assumptions move faster with software.

The constant is that real estate rewards discipline, capital structure, and downside management. Shiny objects tend to reward marketing skill instead.

If a training avoids discussing what happens when a deal underperforms, that is usually the real signal to avoid.

[Don Konipol]

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

If you look at prior years, the pattern is pretty clear.

1. Subject-to was repackaged as new, while the real risks around due-on-sale, insurance, and long-term liability were rarely emphasized, also highlighted as "creative finance".

2. Short-term rental arbitrage was sold as controlling assets with no capital, until regulation, lease enforcement, and seasonality showed up, especially during covid.

3.Wholesaling on the MLS promised volume over skill, as quick dollars.

None of these were new strategies. They were timing plays, marketed hardest to rookies about "anyone can do this with no money"

What will it be this year. My guess: this year’s version will likely be the same strategies with a new wrapper: AI-powered real estate investing.

Expect claims around AI finding deals, underwriting instantly, or replacing experience with automation. Tools can improve efficiency, but they do not change risk, capital costs, or market cycles. Bad assumptions move faster with software.

The constant is that real estate rewards discipline, capital structure, and downside management. Shiny objects tend to reward marketing skill instead.

If a training avoids discussing what happens when a deal underperforms, that is usually the real signal to avoid.

Chris hit the nail on the head.  This is a brilliant analysis and forecast. 
What’s really interesting is that the basics of all these “strategies” were being taught by “gurus” in the mid 1970s to mid 1980s. 

In 1959 William (Bill) Nickerson, a former telephone lineman who had begun investing in real estate right after World War II, wrote and had published a book “How I turned $5,000 into $1,000,000 by Investing in Real Estate in my Spare Time.  The book was based on Nickerson personal investing, starting with a duplex in poor shape, using his own labor and negotiating skills to move the property from C status to B, and either buying the next property or exchanging for a larger property. This was all residential real estate.  Nickerson, shortly followed by George Brockl, a real estate broker out of Wisconsin, were the first to suggest that investing in real estate, outside of a personal residence, was possible for the average person. 

whatever the “next new thing” taught by an actor/personality disguised as a real estate investor is, it will follow the “tried and true” formula when it hits Bigger Pockets

1. Someone with 2 posts will post about how “awesome” the guru program is, and ask a question that they hope will lead to them “signing people up “ so they can collect referral fees from the guru

2. Experienced BP posters will answer questioning the viability of the strategy, the experience of the guru, and the outrageous cost of the program

3. The OP will go on the attack, using personal insults, challenges to responders “manhood”, implication of bias, and  attempts to “control the conversation” in response to information/opinions he doesn’t want to hear.

4. James Wise will call the OP an idiot; post about the subject guru’s past legal problems, and in general incite the OP into insanity. 

5. Jay Hendricks will tell us that the subject guru strategy is illegal in Washington and Oregon, and requires a real estate broker license in California.

6, Chris Seveney will attempt to respond on a professional level, avoiding any personal issues, personal bias, or negative information in general.  This will actually incite the OP even more, convinced Chris is doing this just to “mock” him, and despite Chris’ effort at professionalism, the OP will attack Chris personally and just as vehemently as he does with everyone else. 

7. Stuart Udis will offer a learned and researched legal opinion of the legal compliance of the subject strategy, which the OP will, despite his entire legal education consisting of watching reruns of Law and Order, declare to be totally stupid and incorrect based on the “if that were true I’d be in jail” Hilary Clinton theory of legal liability. 

8. 3 new posters with a total of 2 previous posts total will post about how adherence to the Guru’s teachings changed their life.