Zestimate vs. Actual ARV — Where Are Investors Getting Burned?
I see this mistake constantly when reviewing deals: someone pulls a Zillow Zestimate, calls it the ARV, and builds their whole offer around it.
A Zestimate is an automated estimate with no idea what condition the comps sold in, whether they were renovated, or how recent the sale actually was relative to today's market. An actual ARV means pulling comps sold within the last few months, adjusting for condition and finish level, and confirming they're truly comparable (same bed/bath count, similar square footage, same sub-market).
The gap between the two isn't small — and it's usually the difference between a deal that works and one that quietly eats your margin.
Curious if others have a story where a bad ARV almost got you into a bad deal — what tipped you off before it was too late?