How Do You Underwrite with Ongoing State-wide Property Reassessments?
I'm working on buying my first property and I'm having difficulty forecasting whether or not different multi-family properties will be good cash-flowing properties or not.
The State of Vermont (where I live) is known to be a rough market to invest and live in because property here is relatively expensive for the average Joe vs income; not to mention the various and creative ways Vermont finds the means to tax you. Property taxes are really high just on their own. In the last year or so, the State of Vermont has launched a massive, state-wide property reassessment mandate so all cities, towns, etc. are required to reassess properties across the board.
Now, I'm still learning all the lingo with regard to how taxes are determined and such and there are quite a few areas in Vermont that look like they're going to have their already high taxes double or nearly double (good luck Killington!). In my hometown, the "common level of appraisal" (CLA) is around 57%... so the property in my hometown is UNDERvalued by nearly 43%. Once assessments have been finalized, it's going to be a punch in the face across the board.
My question is this...
What are some strategies the veterans of the group have employed to deal with the scenario I'm describing?
When I'm underwriting, the taxes from the past few years will now be highly inaccurate... but there's no real way to tell how the properties will be reassessed because it'll depend alot on subjective takes and factors from the assessor. I can use simple math to try and forecast it... but I'm afraid that, although I am underwriting conservatively, is it too little? Is it too much? I don't want to miss out on a good deal if the taxes don't rise as high as I'm estimating. By the same token, I don't want to think I got a good deal and then find out I was wrong about the taxes and now cash flow negative.
(Side note: I'd invest elsewhere but I want to invest in my backyard and learn to do it effectively before I look outward).