Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought
Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes
Housing Bubble: Why it may be worse than previously thought
Most Popular Reply
Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votesNot everyone gets to own a home.. so the median rents.. those that rise above the median buy homes. and a lot of folks are in the move up mode.. LOTS of cash to put down driving down the need for massive incomes.
I know when I look at my sales of new construction here on the west coast last 5 years and its a small sampling I think we have built and sold about 100 homes.. I would say 10 to 15% were sold for cash.. Oh and price ranges 300 to a million is were we deal.. and I will lump Charleston SC in there since we have been quite active and that is a expensive market relative to local median income.. Any way back to sales data... gone is the day were Everyone put nothing to minimum down.. So don't see the median income affecting the new home prices as much as one might think..
If I think back to my pre 08 days were we were flipping 75 plus homes a year as a retail flipper.. 97% sold for minimum down and I can't really recall a cash sale I am sure we had one but it would be an outlier.. But now its totally flip flopped at least from my little slice of the world. Lots of cash sales.. MOST sales are 10 to 30% down and small sampling is FHA or VA.
WE will bend over backwards for VA ( lot of folks won't deal with it because of time lines and such but we feel its our duty to help our Vets get into our homes)..
199 Replies
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
If we are talking about LA why include Long Beach and Glendale just to skew the data?
because the census said it was ok
Its not relevant to prove the point... you have different median prices for City of LA and LA County, different qualifying incomes etc.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Michael Kalisch:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Michael Kalisch:
there might be a bubble. but, I was listening this week to an old biggerpockets podcast from 2015 and josh dorking was talking about how we are on top of the cycle, and you can feel it in the air like pre 2008.
that was over 2 years ago, now what if there was someone who decided not to buy anything then and stayed on the sidelines waiting for the crash, and lost out 2 years of cash flow.
just a thought.
Are you talking about Los Angeles specifically?
No, the country in general.
Thats a stretch... not every market is 'behaving' the way LA has been. LA faces a different set of risk based on its specific conditions than some of the other markets.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
interesting article... hmm wonder.....
sarcasm or you really dont understand what to make of the article?
- Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Here let me save you the click:
"Some parents are very very very well off and are capable of making a gift of a house to a kid," says Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.Green adds that his research shows another group that makes up cash buyers: people in the tech industry.
"People who work at Google, people who work at Facebook, people who work at LinkedIn," he says.
Some of these people aren't just paid well, but they're also paid with stock options.
When their hot tech company goes public, that means they can cash out. Big time.
"In California, people sell stock to buy houses in a big way," says Green, noting that it's a phenomenon unique to just our state and New York.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
you tried to make a 5% decline for the entire state of CA relevant lol
So if you were to look at the LA metro area, how exactly does that change any of the facts?
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
"People who work at Google, people who work at Facebook, people who work at LinkedIn," he says.
Some of these people aren't just paid well, but they're also paid with stock options.
When their hot tech company goes public, that means they can cash out. Big time.
You kidding right? Have you tried approaching a lender with this?
"..Some of these people aren't just paid well, but they're also paid with stock options. When their hot tech company goes public, that means they can cash out. Big time...."
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Please explain this to me...
The lender doesn't make personal mortgage loans based on speculation of the borrowers company "going big".
- Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes9y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.
Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)
Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)
How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000
Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)
All real estate markets move through real estate market cycles, so how would you compare and contrast a peak in the market cycle with a "bubble"?
The reason I bring this is up as that many people confuse a "bubble" with a market peak, which is what I think you may be doing here. I don't really blame you because the national news regularly write articles that confuse a market peak with "bubbles".
If you'd like to do further research on real estate market cycles, I suggest googling "Dr. Glenn Mueller". He's written extensively on the subject.
- Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes9y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Please explain this to me...
The lender doesn't lend for a personal mortgage based on speculation of the borrowers company "going big".
do you think any of the companies listed in your quote are speculated to "go big"... or maybe they've already gone big.
- Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2017 · 791 posts · 1k+ votes9y
If you torture data long enough, it will confess to anything...
- Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 11 posts · 7 votes9y
To add my 2cents, LA isn't in a Bubble. At least the City of LA is not. Prices have started to decline a bit, but they will hold around these numbers and go up due to the fact that in 2-4 short years, all of LA will make $15/hr. Teenagers, janitors, the guy that waves the sign at those tax places etc. This is happening as every year we go up $1/hr until we hit $15 in 2022. Most big companies have to do this in 2020, small fries get til 2022. So now is the cheapest LA will be. Outskirts are building up and our public transportation is getting better by the day. All that along with money from the Olympics makes us a hot spot for years to come. Imho.
- 9yJimmy MoncriefPro MemberChattanooga, TN · Member since 2010 · 319 posts · 100 votes
In most markets there is a supply shortgage. I don't know how there can be a bubble when there is a supply shortage and increasing demand.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.
Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)
Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)
How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000
Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)
All real estate markets move through real estate market cycles, so how would you compare and contrast a peak in the market cycle with a "bubble"?
The reason I bring this is up as that many people confuse a "bubble" with a market peak, which is what I think you may be doing here. I don't really blame you because the national news regularly write articles that confuse a market peak with "bubbles".
If you'd like to do further research on real estate market cycles, I suggest googling "Dr. Glenn Mueller". He's written extensively on the subject.
Usually an asset typically has an intrinsic value... stock, real estate etc.... when the dispersion between asset prices and its intrinsic value widens dramatically, you have a bubble. Bubbles just dont spring out of the market abruptly but can gradually form within a certain time interval. Are you familiar with the various phases of a bubble?
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Matt K.:
Please explain this to me...
The lender doesn't lend for a personal mortgage based on speculation of the borrowers company "going big".
do you think any of the companies listed in your quote are speculated to "go big"... or maybe they've already gone big.
You are still trying to make the wrong argument. The fact that SOME in the tech sector (not all) have wages at or slightly above the median wage level doesnt say anything about the affordability of housing.
- Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes9y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.
Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)
Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)
How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000
Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)
All real estate markets move through real estate market cycles, so how would you compare and contrast a peak in the market cycle with a "bubble"?
The reason I bring this is up as that many people confuse a "bubble" with a market peak, which is what I think you may be doing here. I don't really blame you because the national news regularly write articles that confuse a market peak with "bubbles".
If you'd like to do further research on real estate market cycles, I suggest googling "Dr. Glenn Mueller". He's written extensively on the subject.
Usually an asset typically has an intrinsic value... stock, real estate etc.... when the dispersion between asset prices and its intrinsic value widens dramatically, you have a bubble. Bubbles just dont spring out of the market abruptly but can gradually form within a certain time interval. Are you familiar with the various phases of a bubble?
I don't agree. Typically the pricing of an asset results from supply and demand my friend. In addition, with regard to real estate, there are many other variables that affect pricing. Real estate demand is most strongly determined by population and job growth and forecasts of population and job growth in a market.
I've been investing throughout the United States in more than five cities throughout several market cycles.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Daniel Keyes:
To add my 2cents, LA isn't in a Bubble. At least the City of LA is not. Prices have started to decline a bit, but they will hold around these numbers and go up due to the fact that in 2-4 short years, all of LA will make $15/hr. Teenagers, janitors, the guy that waves the sign at those tax places etc. This is happening as every year we go up $1/hr until we hit $15 in 2022. Most big companies have to do this in 2020, small fries get til 2022. So now is the cheapest LA will be. Outskirts are building up and our public transportation is getting better by the day. All that along with money from the Olympics makes us a hot spot for years to come. Imho.
oh boy! you are aware that $15/hr is $28,800 per year correct? We are currently talking about how in LA the current median household wage of $50,000 or $26 per hour, is half what it needs to be to afford a median home in LA at $700,000. A bump to $15/hr although helpful doesnt solve the problem. $28,800 salary barely buys you a $135,000 to $140,000 house. Thats a long ways from $700,000.
- Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 11 posts · 7 votes9y
@Account Closed Big dog lol. You're argument is rather strong based on those numbers, but I live here. I'm from here, I work here in the Tech sector, and I'm also a Realtor. LA is extremely large and that median price is based on our super high end homes being averaged with our low end sector (Antelope valley, San Bernadino, etc.) Most people here rent as many before me have told you that LA has a supply issue. This isn't gonna be solved anytime soon, and there are tons of FHA available homes below 500k ALL OVER THE PLACE that will allow you to become an owner. Also your Out of state numbers don't hold in this market. LA people typically pay closer to 45%+ of their monthly income on housing. With that rise in wages this will allow the supply to rise but the cost of living will increase balancing things out. We can all be right man. ;)
- Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 12 posts · 3 votes9y
Supply and Demand is determined by underlying factors of population growth, job growth, and historical vacancy. Certain markets have peaked, and supply has finally caught up with demand, and some markets are currently still under supplied, but as long as these underlying key indicators remain as strong as they have I don't see a "bubble". Just the market cycling as it has done since the beginning.
- Kitchener, Ontario · Member since 2015 · 1 post · 0 votes9y
1st rule of Housing Bubble: “This time will be different”.
My experience in Canada with Toronto and Vancouver driving average house prices in whole Canada is:
- Available Data can be and will be different, even in one Newspaper or TV station you have different opinions and different charts. Depending of interest people want to here: “Its Bubble and Prices going down” or “Everything will be fine”.
Data of Real Estate Association Canada http://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/national-average-price-map/
- Supply Crisis depending of Demand of First Time Home Buyers as well as Speculators. If First Time Home Buyers are Priced out from market then you don't have Supply Shortage. That is problem in Canada. Young Doctors and well paid professionals cant save enough money for down payment, because prices last year went up 23%???
- Where ever you have gains this high you will have speculators.
- This is somehow realistic earnings in Canada https://careers.workopolis.com/advice/how-much-money-are-we-earning-the-average-canadian-wages-right-now/
- No way that you can afford house to live in with this salaries if house price is 1 Million in Toronto about 1100 sq Feet and no garage no backyard.
- Professional · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2017 · 624 posts · 147 votes9y
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.
Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)
Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)
How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000
Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)
All real estate markets move through real estate market cycles, so how would you compare and contrast a peak in the market cycle with a "bubble"?
The reason I bring this is up as that many people confuse a "bubble" with a market peak, which is what I think you may be doing here. I don't really blame you because the national news regularly write articles that confuse a market peak with "bubbles".
If you'd like to do further research on real estate market cycles, I suggest googling "Dr. Glenn Mueller". He's written extensively on the subject.
Usually an asset typically has an intrinsic value... stock, real estate etc.... when the dispersion between asset prices and its intrinsic value widens dramatically, you have a bubble. Bubbles just dont spring out of the market abruptly but can gradually form within a certain time interval. Are you familiar with the various phases of a bubble?
I don't agree. Typically the pricing of an asset results from supply and demand my friend. In addition, with regard to real estate, there are many other variables that affect pricing. Real estate demand is most strongly determined by population and job growth and forecasts of population and job growth in a market.
I've been investing throughout the United States in more than five cities throughout several market cycles.
Dont agree with what? We werent discussing what determines the price of an asset so just stating the obvious seems irrelevant. You can browse to the first page of the thread where I mention what is driving LA prices.
- Investor · Berkeley, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 713 votes9y
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
Originally posted by @Jon Q.:
Originally posted by @Account Closed:
A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand, speculation and exuberance. ... Speculators enter the market, further driving demand. At some point, demand decreases or stagnates at the same time supply increases, resulting in a sharp drop in prices — and the bubble bursts.
If this is the definition of a housing bubble according to investopedia.... LA may be heading into some serious trouble.
Median LA housing price = $685,000 (zillow avg. of median home value & median listing price)
Income required to qualify = $125,000 (0% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Income required to qualify = $118,000 (5% down, 4.5% mortgage)
Median LA household income = $54,000 (argue accuracy of data with census bureau)
How much home can a household buy with $54,000 = $260,000
Primary factor driving LA prices = Speculation (may also argue demand)
All real estate markets move through real estate market cycles, so how would you compare and contrast a peak in the market cycle with a "bubble"?
The reason I bring this is up as that many people confuse a "bubble" with a market peak, which is what I think you may be doing here. I don't really blame you because the national news regularly write articles that confuse a market peak with "bubbles".
If you'd like to do further research on real estate market cycles, I suggest googling "Dr. Glenn Mueller". He's written extensively on the subject.
Usually an asset typically has an intrinsic value... stock, real estate etc.... when the dispersion between asset prices and its intrinsic value widens dramatically, you have a bubble. Bubbles just dont spring out of the market abruptly but can gradually form within a certain time interval. Are you familiar with the various phases of a bubble?
I don't agree. Typically the pricing of an asset results from supply and demand my friend. In addition, with regard to real estate, there are many other variables that affect pricing. Real estate demand is most strongly determined by population and job growth and forecasts of population and job growth in a market.
I've been investing throughout the United States in more than five cities throughout several market cycles.
Dont agree with what? We werent discussing what determines the price of an asset so just stating the obvious seems irrelevant. You can browse to the first page of the thread where I mention what is driving LA prices.
Mike,
Are you a real estate investor? If so, what, specifically, is your real estate investment experience (years of experience, markets, etc.)?