The bubble is bursting and we're still investing

The bubble is bursting and we're still investing

Investor · Decatur, GA · Member since 2015 · 56 posts · 38 votes

In my humble opinion, the bubble has started to burst and many of us including myself are still in denial. 

The national median home value is now $217,300, an increase of 8.3% on the year and 8.4% above the bubble-era peak. In 21 of the nation’s 35 largest markets, the median home value is now at an all-time high.

Currently, interest rates are at a four year high. Mortgage rates have not reached 5% since 2011. Interest rates also have some correlation with the real estate markets. History shows that real estate interest rates tend to hit their highest after land values peak.

Mortgage applications to purchase a newly built home plummeted nearly 9 percent in June compared with June 2017, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This suggests lower new home sales going forward, despite higher price.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, what happens when all the biggerpockets crowd and likeminded investors start trying to unload their properties at the same time. An article recently outlined that the Chinese investors in US real estate are now trying to sell their properties. For the first time in a decade, Chinese insurers, conglomerates and other investors have become net sellers of U.S. commercial real estate.  

Prices have gone up so high that simply put, the average American renters are barely able to keep up with rent prices. This is the very definition of a real estate bubble. I really hope we are not in a bubble but I worry about the irrational exuberance in this market..

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Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
8y

Groundhog day...been reading these correction posts for four years.  Yes, markets go through cycles.  If you can predict them, forget real estate and short or long the stock market...it's a lot easier.  We don't need to hear that a correction is coming...we all know that markets cycle.  We need to know what you are doing about it.  Years of idle cash is high risk.

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  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    8y

    That’s almost exactly what happened in Vegas. I was buying houses for $110k, $50/sf that had sold for $150/sf a year or two earlier  and now are back to $130/sf. Rents have gone up every year for the 20 years I’ve been in Vegas.

    I dream about a 20% drop someday but I don’t see it being possible. There’s just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for any price drop at all. Heck, I’d start buying at 10% off. 

    Ps. I remember while buying those houses in 2008, everyone who was pro-real estate the year before was asking wasn’t I afraid they’d go down another 50%? There are 100 investors out there that lament the houses they didn’t buy for the one investor that can’t shut up about the only one they ever bought. I turned down so many deals over $5-$10k that are worth $150k more 10 years later. I just thought it would go on forever and I was running out of money and loans. I started getting pickier and pickier. Poor poor pitiful me.  :-)

  • Realtor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2017 · 541 posts · 442 votes
    8y

    Please tell everyone in Phoenix that the bubble is here so that they stop offering on properties! I would appreciate it greatly

  • Member since 2018 · 214 posts · 175 votes
    8y

    Looks like many people have saved a pile of cash and have been waiting for a crash for a long long long time.  I wonder, if and once the price drop 10%, many of those investors would jump into the market to pick up the 10% discount houses, then prices keep going up and up again, form another much bigger bubble that the price will pass the coming “blip” and pass coming 1st peak... and hit another much higher peak...

  • Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes
    8y
    @Tareq Salaita It's a dangerous time to get into market now. The price is too high, cap rate too low. Most people believe the market will always go up. SF Bay Area experienced a record run up this spring, forcing affordability to a new low. The rent did not go up as much as the house price though. If there is a correction, that will be good for the market and zero some of the amateur gamblers, just like a decade ago.
  • Property Manager · Alpharetta, GA · Member since 2018 · 163 posts · 117 votes
    8y

    I just CANNOT get into this doomsday scenario. The market, as everyone has said, moves in cycles. We all know this. WTF is the purpose of this post? I mean if you seriously are living off ARM, balloon, hard money, HELOC and the like, you like of deserve to get smacked around a bit. Yeah you can HELOC at 6% and re-invest in Stock and get 12-20%, lots of folks seems to say they know people who now live on their own island after grabbing a 5K HELOC.

    The reality, and yes, the above was fantasy, is the most of us are in the for the long haul. That means we're counting on the market to change. Our properties are designed to whether the storm. If you're doing deals that can't, well Darwin was right.

    Me, I will continue to invest in the lowest aspect of the American society. Someone said people can't afford rising rents, I say BULL SH**!! Give me a 60K house with 30% down, that sucker will cash flow 400 bucks a month FOREVER! 3/1 990 square feet, they made millions of them post WWII in Atlanta and I plan to buy every one. You know how much it costs to put a new HVAC unit in a house that isn't 1K square feet, about $1600. ROI on that is four months. Bring it.

    This isn't Section VIII either. America as a whole, the average credit score of its citizens continues to go down. Welfare, food stamps, at an all time high. I can't fix this country, or its people...many of whom are 3rd generation living off Uncle Sam which means many see it as entitlement. I hate it, but I'll gladly make money off it. Use all your food stamps on Food and all your money on booze and scratchers. I'm cool with that as long as rent is on time.

    The market can keep eating ***** or it can continue to flourish. Millenials are just the newest generation to grow into maturity without a clue.

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2011 · 122 posts · 67 votes
    8y

    If you're still buying properties in this market, make sure you have a Plan B, Plan C, and maybe even a Plan D. Run some sensitivity analysis to make sure you can still at least break even if rents drop or if CAP rates increase significantly. Smart buyers are really conservative in their calculations and underwriting.

    "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffett

  • Investor · Decatur, GA · Member since 2015 · 56 posts · 38 votes
    8y

    Anyone read the NYT article this morning about the Denver real estate market ? The bubble has burst there ..

    Housing Market Slows, as Rising Prices Outpace Wages

    https://nyti.ms/2Onizzn?smid=nytcore-ios-share

  • Commercial Real Estate Agent · Denver, CO · Member since 2018 · 109 posts · 81 votes
    8y

    What bubble?

    Inventory levels are at one month. Six months is considered a balanced market. Days on Market (DOM) continue low. Comparing this expansion to prior expansions shows that the length of this one is not unusual. Prior expansions here have average 17-years. During those expansions (over the last 45 years) house prices have increased on average six percent per year. The NYT article glossed over those facts. Low income taxes, low property taxes...

    There is no bubble             

  • Realtor · Denver, CO · Member since 2016 · 499 posts · 129 votes
    8y

    Hi @Tareq Salaita There has been a change in the market. Not necessarily a bubble bursting but no market can sustain 10% appreciation YOY for long.  The high purchase price homes are still sitting on the market and the lower homes are going within 1-2 weeks.  The good news is that there are always opportunities in every market. 

  • Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 4 posts · 4 votes
    8y

    Demand for more 'affordable' rentals always increases when markets crash as people lose their jobs and/or houses and need to find less expensive rentals.   'Affordable' is obviously relative to where you live.   

  • Haymarket, VA · Member since 2015 · 23 posts · 4 votes
    8y
    I am curious what experienced folks think will happen from fall of 2018 to spring of 2019? I’ve been flipping homes in the Northern Virginia/DC area for the past 17 years and have no desire to get surprised by a sudden market downturn. As you can imagine, it’s no fun investing hundreds of thousands of dollars and months of renovations into a property which is worth less than when you bought it. So forecasting is very valuable. Concerns are: 1. National Association of Realtors reports that loan applications have tanked in the last month – October 2018 2. Sales have dropped since this time last year 3. Local realtors are reporting a market contraction 4. Higher-priced homes – in this area, over $1 million, are sitting on the market. A canary – in – the – mine indicator. 5. Deals are extremely hard to find , possibly indicating cresting a market peak. I don’t like sitting on the fence, but hate getting burned even more. Now, we all know that the real estate markets are hottest during the spring and fall. The recent hot market has plowed through what is normally the summer doldrums. What I am having trouble with is determining whether this market cool down is reflective of normal, post – Fall slow down and transitioning into a buyers market – or – is it indicative of a more significant bubble burst? What are your market forecasts for the next six months?
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y

    @Rodney D.  markets fluctuate constantly..   a market or bubble  burst in my mind means an epic failure in the mortgage markets or a war or some other natural disaster.. but with the natural disasters that have been happening this just leads to a lot of influx of capital to rebuild.

    for sure market simply could not keep the pace they were going. its not a normal market to have 30 offers on one house.

    or put a property on the market and be soldin 3 to 7 days.

    normal is 60 to 90 day sales time or a little longer.. we just all forgot.

  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    8y

    As long as you are not forced to sell and your properties are cash flowing well it does not really matter. Yeah I'm interested; but certainly not worried. If I see agood deal tomorrow that cash flows well I'm on it!

  • Renter · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 278 posts · 71 votes
    8y

    Tareq, I completely agree that the direction of assets values turned earlier this year.

    Maybe not every real estate market, but let's turn this massive Q around,

    where are values going up?

    Not in China, Australia, Canada, California, New York, etc.

    What does that tell us?

    Overall values are either going up or down and I think they are now going down

    but the acceleration is so slight that many amateur sellers with properties on

    the market still think their assets are the same value as earlier in 2018.

    But as far a bubble "bursting" that will require wide-spread fear

    but Mainstream News pumps out "everything is fine" articles

    everyday regarding interest rates, trade wars, inflation, etc.

    Most of BP collects checks from people who can't buy anyway

    so you may find some friction here, but I will say again,

    we have passed the top, and I believe that Amazon's

    $2000 share price around my birthday a few months

    ago is probably the clearest marker that we can easily

    refer back to in five years looking to this day, with many

    saying, "I wish I would have sold" in the summer of 2018.

    I'm personally almost all cash as of a month ago

    and am leveraging my 800 FICO into a new LLC

    building two excellent credit profiles

    for the next buying opportunity.

    This was my opinion and I'm not licensed,

    John Acheson, MBA

  • Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    7y

    error post

  • Brie SchmidtBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2013 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    1y

    This post didn't age well

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