SUBMARKET GROWING SLOWER THAN MSA

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SUBMARKET GROWING SLOWER THAN MSA

Jason MalabuteBusiness Member
Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 913 votes

Is it a bad thing if both the MSA and submarket are both growing in population, but the submarket is not growing as rapidly as MSA as a whole ?

For example, from 2010-2017, Oklahoma City MSA's population growth is 13.3%, but Norman, OK's growth is only 10.7%. Is this a big red flag? 

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  • Ron Daugherty
    Flipper · Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2015 · 61 posts · 51 votes
    7y

    I don't have any personal experience with Norman, but I have heard from others on here that Norman was oversaturated with rentals a few years back and that's it not as good a market to get into as it once was.  Because of that, I have specifically stayed away from buying any rentals in Norman.  I think Moore is approaching this same saturation, seeing rentals on market for longer periods of time there than I did a year ago.

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  • Jason MalabuteBusiness Member
    OP
    Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 913 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Ron Daugherty:

    I don't have any personal experience with Norman, but I have heard from others on here that Norman was oversaturated with rentals a few years back and that's it not as good a market to get into as it once was.  Because of that, I have specifically stayed away from buying any rentals in Norman.  I think Moore is approaching this same saturation, seeing rentals on market for longer periods of time there than I did a year ago.

    what are signs of over saturation?

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  • Ron Daugherty
    Flipper · Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2015 · 61 posts · 51 votes
    7y

    For me, local knowledge and most importantly I monitor days on market for rentals.

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  • Account Closed
    Real Estate Broker · Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2016 · 39 posts · 58 votes
    7y

    Jason:

    To use an oil & gas expression, Norman gets "whip-sawed" every year with the temporary population swings of the University of Oklahoma.  I agree with Ron about saturation.  I own a lot of rentals in the OKC Metro area, but only 2 in Norman.  Housing follows JOBS, and the jobs are for the most part in Oklahoma City.  I would bet job growth in OKC has been a lot more than the job growth in Norman, which will continue for the foreseeable future.

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  • Jason MalabuteBusiness Member
    OP
    Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 913 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Jason:

    To use an oil & gas expression, Norman gets "whip-sawed" every year with the temporary population swings of the University of Oklahoma.  I agree with Ron about saturation.  I own a lot of rentals in the OKC Metro area, but only 2 in Norman.  Housing follows JOBS, and the jobs are for the most part in Oklahoma City.  I would bet job growth in OKC has been a lot more than the job growth in Norman, which will continue for the foreseeable future.

     Yes I think you are correct. Also, even though population has increased in OKC as a whole in last 10 years, the amount of growth every year has not been that consistent  

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