October and YTD MLS Statistics for Austin

3 Replies

October and YTD MLS Statistics

SUPPLY Inventory is down 50 % from 2019 that is DOWN @ 3,500 Units.
STOP ---------------- and let that sink in.  That is HALF the inventory we had in 2019.

2019 = 7,041 inventory       2020 = 3,501 inventory

Inventory is DOWN 6,800 Units from 10 years ago in 2010. In 2010 inventory was 10,331 units and in the last 10 years, Austin has added over 300,000 population.

Months of inventory is 1.1 months.  (Months of the inventory measures supply and demand. The current inventory is divided by the average sales per month for the last 12 months to show months of inventory. Economists say that a balanced market should have about 6.5 months of inventory.) 

The Months of Inventory has NEVER been this LOW in the LAST 30 years of MLS reporting !!!!!!

Here are the numbers. See for yourself. https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/housing-activity/
Choose the State of Texas and the MSA for Austin/Round Rock.

The message to buyers is that there are not many resale homes to pick from and the good ones will most likely have multiple offers.  Buyers should consider looking at New Homes. With the toll roads, many new homes are just 20 minutes away from town.  Many of the employers like Apple are on the outskirts of town already. The driving time for many employers would be less than 20 minutes.  Buyers in the resale market are having a stressful time finding and winning the bid on a home.  Buyers in the New Home market find that the builders treat them like kings and queens.

Total Sold Units are UP year to date comparing 2019 and 2020. Yes, unthinkable in a pandemic.  UP + 7 % !!!! Who would ever have predicted that in the middle of a pandemic.

Comparing October 2019 vs October 2020 Sales are UP + 29 % @ 850 units !!!!!  Pending Sales that have not closed yet are UP an AMAZING + 28 % !!!!!!

Price is Up + 7.4 % to $336,000 Median Price.  Economics 101: Supply and Demand-  If Supply is low and the Demand is high the Price will go UP.  We expect Sales to continue to be UP the rest of 2020 and most likely for years to come with the amount of job growth projected.

Great perspective @Dan Burstain .   I think this speaks strongly against the notion of trying to find a 'deal' in this market right now. The 'deal' is getting a property under contract with this level of competition.  Inventory is critically low and with an increasing population the demand does not look to likely to diminish anytime soon.  

Thanks for sharing your insight. 

@Dan Burstain this made me laugh:

Want a great deal....get something under contract and in 4 months it will look like an amazing deal.

But the chuckle aside, it's true.  Assuming the median price point of $336,000 and median price point up 7.4% for the Austin MSA, let's expand that growth and speculate for the following year.  

If the market growth stayed flat at 7.4% for the next year that $336,000 median price point will be $360,864 in 12 months. That would be a YoY dollar growth of $24,864. Broken down per month that equates to $2,072 increase monthly. I do not know how everyone else's monthly cash flow looks but I am certainly not clearing $2k on a $336k rental property. To stress here, all numbers are based on median value information from the MLS and will vary greatly by specific area. Consider YoY changes for appreciation in the Austin area where many zip codes saw double digit increases from 2019 numbers. Now pair that with the current demand in 2020 and run your respective numbers.

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