How to Gage Economic Conditions

Question

These are ways to determine economic conditions:

-  Local Sales Tax Reports - paying close attention to the major factors affecting the major employers

-  Auto sales - dig down to learn of the sales price points

-  Walmart sales - especially type of goods dominating monthly sales for a period of several months, such as “essentials”.

-  Major Fast Food Sales - especially menu items: for example, are $1 menu items the dominating selling items

-  Pizza prices

-  Food Inflation - especially essentials

-  Transportation Inflation - such as gasoline prices and auto prices

-  What laws are in the pipeline to be passed - federal, state, and local

-  What are the viewpoints, sales, and employment habits of major local employers - historical information has a higher value than assumptions

What have I overlooked?

Jeff S. · Answer

Chris Martin, thanks for sharing the alcohol study.  The findings were surprising, especially the parts about people with higher income and education.

Chris Martin · Answer

Regarding "The consumption stay relatively the same it's the quality everyone is choosing that goes down." There is no evidence that this is correct. Here's the research paper. Why don't you send them an email and tell them their study and 34,653 interviews are bunk, and you know the answers better than a controlled study?

Alex Baev · Answer

- Local educational prospects. I would look at local institutions of higher education - universities and their enrollment guidelines and goals. More people getting a degree in the area means more first-time home-byuers

- Crime reports and larger crime trends that lead to demographic shifts. Ironically, in Los Angeles - and most metropolitan areas i suspect, i've had a "fun" time education myself on local gang problem and how the recent police crackdowns on some gangs tend to shift demographics and promote overall gentrification of an area.

Stephanie Dupuis · Answer

I'm looking at the things listed in your list. Plus:

What ppl are doing for fun and vacations. Instead of Europe, they're now traveling 3 hrs. away for a four day overnighter at a local place, or camping with the family. Some are going without vacation.

Watch home maintenance. Some are realizing it pays to maintain their home - fixing the roof or painting the exterior instead of upgrading the stereo system. And some simply can't afford to maintain the home.

Eating out. Many are eating in.

Raising kids. I watch the parents and what they let the kids buy (or not buy). Parents parenting with firmer limits.

Attitudes: People humbling themselves. Buying used items when before that would have been unacceptable. Sharing items, etc. Talking about their situation with honesty.

Ned Carey · Answer

Tom, You didn't specifically mention jobs but obviously that is key.  To evaluate a local area vs national look not only unemployment  (or employment) rate, look at  the outlook for jobs. Are  major employers coming to the area. Is the area pro growth or more bureaucratic anti growth?  Is the political climate such as to attract jobs?

Ryan Johnson · Answer

I have to disagree about the alcohol part. The consumption stay relatively the same it's the quality everyone is choosing that goes down. At lease in my area. But my market is a bedding town.

Tom Goans · Answer

Chris Martin,

Thank you for your suggestion. I have also added the following to the list:

-  What are the viewpoints, sales, and employment habits of major local employers - historical information has a higher value than assumptions

-  Local charitable donations

-  Local charitable demand

Funny you should mention the alcohol comsumption. I have a friend who has owned many bars since the 1970s. He mentioned to me one that one way he determines consumer confidence is how money is treated by his customers. For example, if the money is waded up in a ball, the attitueds are poor.

Chris Martin · Answer

You got the pizza, but missed alcohol consumption. http://www.webmd.com/mental-health/alcohol-abuse/news/20111013/as-economy-goes-down-drinking-goes-up