Single Family, Long Term Rental: Current Deal Metrics

Single Family, Long Term Rental: Current Deal Metrics

Property Manager · Carefree, AZ · Member since 2017 · 9 posts · 11 votes

Hi all,

I invest in, and manage, single family long term rentals. I look for 1,700-1,850 sq ft 3/2s in the far north Phoenix/Scottsdale area. Areas like Cave Creek & Carefree Arizona. I am a full time real estate professional always looking at on/off the MLS properties.

I am curious what you all think are good metrics to hit when looking at opportunities in today's market, in this area.  The metrics I look at is cash on cash return, what interest rates you are getting, % down need to close, points that need to be paid, capital improvement cost (if substantial), and what your cash flows are looking like on these new acquisitions (i.e. +$200 a month after all expenses).  I am just trying to ground my expectations...I am concerned I am passing on deals that are "as good as it is going to get" right now.

I don't want to invest out of state (we just sold our last out of state rental (the rental did okay for 7 years, but did not perform as well as I wanted...but again, maybe my expectations are off)

I don't include items like cost seg/accelerated depreciation in 1st year cash on cash calculation...I look at it as the icing on the cake (because if I don't 1031, that depreciation gets recaptured).

...and it goes without saying, if anyone has some opportunities I am always happy to take a look.

Thank you so much, I think this information will be helpful to many of us up here in the North Valley.

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Melissa JusticeBusiness Member
Rental Property Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2024 · 518 posts · 1k+ votes
1y

@Tony Hibler,

Thanks for sharing-your approach and focus in the North Valley definitely resonates with me. I’m also based here in Phoenix. I’ve been active in both investing and helping others acquire long-term rentals, so I completely understand the balancing act between waiting for the “perfect deal” and accepting today’s market realities.

I agree that cash-on-cash return, interest rates, down payment requirements, points, and realistic cash flow projections (+$200/month after all expenses) are key. I also look at reserves and long-term appreciation potential, especially in solid submarkets like Cave Creek and Carefree where tenant quality and low vacancy often justify slimmer initial returns.

You're spot on about cost segregation being more of a long-term tax strategy rather than a deal-deciding factor up front. It's great when it enhances your position, but I don't factor it into my initial return metrics either.

Let’s definitely stay in touch-if anything off-market comes across my desk that fits your criteria, I’d be happy to share. Likewise, if you’re seeing any standout properties in our area, I’m always open to collaborating.

Best of luck!

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  • Melissa JusticeBusiness Member
    Rental Property Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2024 · 518 posts · 1k+ votes
    1y

    @Tony Hibler,

    Thanks for sharing-your approach and focus in the North Valley definitely resonates with me. I’m also based here in Phoenix. I’ve been active in both investing and helping others acquire long-term rentals, so I completely understand the balancing act between waiting for the “perfect deal” and accepting today’s market realities.

    I agree that cash-on-cash return, interest rates, down payment requirements, points, and realistic cash flow projections (+$200/month after all expenses) are key. I also look at reserves and long-term appreciation potential, especially in solid submarkets like Cave Creek and Carefree where tenant quality and low vacancy often justify slimmer initial returns.

    You're spot on about cost segregation being more of a long-term tax strategy rather than a deal-deciding factor up front. It's great when it enhances your position, but I don't factor it into my initial return metrics either.

    Let’s definitely stay in touch-if anything off-market comes across my desk that fits your criteria, I’d be happy to share. Likewise, if you’re seeing any standout properties in our area, I’m always open to collaborating.

    Best of luck!

  • Mason WeissBusiness Member
    Realtor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2021 · 523 posts · 239 votes
    1y

    For single family long term rental it is tough right now. It requires either a higher down payment percentage to get $100-$300 of cash flow, or you need to essentially purchase a flip and then put more capital into the reno. I still opt for the higher down payment and less leverage as it is less risky and you can always get your capital back out down the road when deals are easier to come by.

  • Patrick O'SullivanBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2024 · 534 posts · 205 votes
    1y

    Hey Tony, appreciate you laying all this out, super helpful to hear how others are underwriting in the current market. I’m seeing the same thing lately: slimmer margins and tougher choices. It’s easy to second-guess passing on deals, but like you, I’d rather be conservative than force a deal that doesn’t pencil. Totally agree that cost seg is nice, but not something to lean on when the fundamentals don’t work. Thanks again for sharing, always good to hear from someone active in the North Valley!

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  • Member since 2025 · 45 posts · 47 votes
    1y

    I have a mental return rate I use to evaluate properties.  If rents minus maintenance costs  divided by price don't meet that number I move on.

    Home prices jumped a lot during Covid, so the last few years there has not been a property that has met the number.  In the meantime I stash cash for my next purchase (home prices softening, rents increasing).

    I did make 2 exceptions to my "number" in the last 2 years.  I found landlords wanting out, that had fully paid off properties. In both cases I got them to finance my purchase (seller financing).  Gave them each a little money down, and a little more than they were getting in rents. Most importantly both gave me 0 yes Zero percent financing.

    Both are performing well, one just had a tenant buy a home so at turnover I bumped it to market rate (now nicely cash positive).

    My point is be creative. Deals are out there.

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