2022 STR forecast from AirDNA

[James Carlson]

Thought I'd throw out this mildly interesting report from AirDNA -- the 2022 Forecast: U.S. Short-Term Rental Outlook Report. I say "mildly" interesting because all real estate -- including STRs -- are local. For instance, we work with Airbnb investors in Colorado; Why would I care about a national report on occupancy and supply?

But hey! Let's not let that stop us from a futile conversation about it anyway. A few highlights that I found interesting:

Growth in STR supply in 2021 was lower than anticipated
The number of short-term rentals grew by only 2.6%, not the projected 10%. That sounds like a bad thing, but for any of my Colorado Airbnb clients, I'm happy about this. That means less competition, higher rates and higher occupancy.

And what do you know?
Likely due to the lower-than-anticipated supply of short-term rentals, occupancy rose slightly and the ADR (average daily rate) rose by 11.5% last year.

Mountain and coastal areas were hot
Little surprise here as people fled urban areas during covid. The report said demand for mountain and coastal properties grew by 25-30% between 2019 and 2021 while new listings only grew roughly 5%. We certainly saw this here in Colorado where the demand for second homes and vacation homes in the mountains skyrocketed.

Urban areas will see big growth in 2022
This is largely because they took such a hit in 2020 and 2021 with Covid. But AirDNA projects cities will see a 33% increase in demand over last year. (Though it notes that it will still end 2022 with lower demand than in 2019.) I personally like this because we have several Airbnb investors in the Denver and Colorado Springs areas, and it's not like they didn't already do well last year.

Larger homes were booked more often
The number of rooms in a house booked in 2021 was up 10% over 2017. Again, we saw this on the ground in the Airbnb revenues our clients could pull from larger homes in Colorado. Sure, a 3br in the mountains could gross $90k, but a moderately more expensive 5br might gross $180k. 

Like I said up top, I'm not sure what use this is to anyone. Maybe on the macro level, you see that buying a 5br home in the mountains or on the coast is going to gross you the most money, but again, it all depends on local home prices and running your numbers ... just like any investment.