Realistic Performance in Smoky Mountains in 2022

[Paul Wolfson]

I'm heading to the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge area to look at some cabins (3 - 4 bedrooms). My analysis is showing projected annual income after expenses at about $30k (20% cash on cash return) using today's home values and high interest rates. 

These projections are using numbers from AirDNA showing 77% average occupancy rate and ~$270 average nightly rate.

I'm not sure if these numbers are representative of what is truly happening in today's market.

For those that have cabins in the Smoky Mountains, could you please share your revenue numbers as well as net income (after all expenses) for 2022.

I'd like to see if my projections are realistic.

Thank you in advance.

[John Carbone]

Quote from @Paul Wolfson:

I'm heading to the Gatlinburg/Pigeon Forge area to look at some cabins (3 - 4 bedrooms). My analysis is showing projected annual income after expenses at about $30k (20% cash on cash return) using today's home values and high interest rates. 

These projections are using numbers from AirDNA showing 77% average occupancy rate and ~$270 average nightly rate.

I'm not sure if these numbers are representative of what is truly happening in today's market.

For those that have cabins in the Smoky Mountains, could you please share your revenue numbers as well as net income (after all expenses) for 2022.

I'd like to see if my projections are realistic.

Thank you in advance.

Not sure if you are factoring the cleaning fees in this, but airdna includes the cleaning fees in ADR. A 4 bedroom cleaning fee brings in around $200-$300 a reservation. The average booking is 3.5 days so 80 reservation x $250 you are looking at 20k that has to come off the top of airdna data. You may be factoring that in already, but I see a lot of people overlook that, and it’s the difference between 20 percent coc and a slight profit.