Projections gut check - smokies

[Saranya Sundararajan]

Sold as a 2bedroom 2bath with a small bonus area upstairs in the shagbark community. While it is a 2 bedroom , it actually has another room attached to the second bedroom - which has a double bed. It has a view of the smoky mountains . Has hot tub, shuffleboard , arcade games and we'll add other games. Sleeps 9 guests . I know shagbark is far as you want to go for an STR in the smokies. Owners have had it since Apr 2022 and will make $50k (but they have been using the place a lot)

My agent  thinks it can make $80k conservative but that feels too high to me as it’s 70% occupancy @ 300 ADR. Any gurus can help gut check ? 

[Zach Edelman]

Quote from @Leora Merrell:

I think there’s a reason they’re already selling it after one year. You’re going to see a lot of those, especially this Fall after summer numbers are nowhere near what people were hoping when they purchased in spring of 2022. 

 Going to create a lot of opportunity for people that are doing well to take up further market share. Lower supply, the same demand.