Big Bear City/Lake STR Thoughts?

Question

Hello all,

I am very strongly considering a buying a house in Big Bear to use as a STR for part of the year and for some personal use too.

I've been hearing that the market is getting (or already is) saturated, the prices are high, and there are even stricter rules about STRs, but I would love to get some info from people that are invested or working in the area.

I went up there last winter and had a hard time finding a place to stay, so I wonder if there may still be room. Of course I understand that winter is high season - but still, it looked like almost everything had been rented.

As a sidenote - I live about 2.5hrs from Big Bear and seeing as this would be my first rental I would want it to be within driving distance. That's why I'm looking for something around SoCal, even though I understand that it's not a great market for several reasons.

Jameson Shipp · Answer

Hi Rafael. I live and work as an agent up in Big Bear Lake. My family owns a vacation property here as well. You are correct that prices have gotten higher here. One of the benefits of being in a mountain community however is homes tend to sit on the market longer giving you more negotiation power. If you're looking for a STR your main focus is most likely cash flow. If the numbers work and the property will cash flow, purchase price shouldn't be much of a concern outside of your own affordability. BiggerPockets has a great tool in the AirBNB estimator and I have a good relationship with a property manager up here who has run numbers for properties in the past, vacancy rates, rent estimator, etc. All in all I think the BBL area is still a very promising STR area you just have to be dilligent in doing your homework and finding the right property for you. Let me know if there is any way I can help.

Good Luck!

Jason Kudo · Answer

Your comment about San Bernardino County's unincorporated areas no longer allowing stays under 30 days is incorrect. Joshua Tree is an unincorporated area of San Bernardino County. Big Bear City is also an unincorporated area of San Bernardino County while Big Bear Lake is an incorporated city and both Joshua Tree and Big Bear City are eligible for stays under 30 days. Big Bear Lake has more layers of STR regulation than Big Bear City. Also, the inventory level is not the sole reason that nightly rates have been trending lower. We are in an uncertain economic climate and uncertainty brings tightening of wallets. This, more than any other reason is why nightly rates are trending lower but still, our nightly rates are still higher year over year.

Michael Baum · Answer

Hey @Rafael Ro, there has been a few topics on this area with mixed results from owners.

Seeing as you are interested in using it quite a bit, are you willing to lose money on the place?

Tom Freestone · Answer

The only information that I came across on Big Bear was this podcast on Avery Carl’s show that sounded like a big red flag with Vail Resorts moving in.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/...

Peter Mckernan · Answer

I agree, and have properties in some of those areas. We can go through the unincorporated and incorporated pockets of the county that are not allowing and allowing. I worked for the county for 15 years and have a good knowledge base on the overlays. The reason it was a blanket statement was due to the this being an everchanging local and state wide watch. For instance, there is a bill 584 that was passed and is now going to the assembly in California (has not fully passed) could impose a 15% tax on all STRs which would be an additional tax on top of local taxes is not set yet, but could start as soon as 2025. This is an example of going 30,000 foot view for investors on BP looking at areas verse going 1,000 foot view on each area unknowing exactly what they are going to actually look for when they are ready.

For the second comment, I agree it is not only the supply of STRs out in JT, it also depends on data for the park. For instance, the peak looks to be 2021, and then the park had a reduction last year in visitors. We'll have to see what happens next year for 2023 numbers. This shows that numbers have slowly (not a drastic change) started to decrease as of last year for visitors at the park, which could effect pricing per night.

https://www.nps.gov/jotr/learn...

Sarah Kensinger · Answer

CA is a hard place to buy real estate, but some people do prefer that since they are willing to jump through all the loopholes while many others won't. So that makes it a less competitive state. Natlie Palmer who did the Level Up your Listing Conference, has a number of STR condos in Big Bear that she co-hosts and owns. She as well as other STR owners are the reason Big Bear didn't totally ban STR. I do know she recently said they wouldn't purchase another property in that area, but her STR have done rather well.

Peter Mckernan · Answer

The markets in SoCal are getting more and more regulated, and the ones that are not are saturated with inventory. For instance Joshua Tree has a lot more properties on the market now than they did even one year ago which puts downward pressure on pricing for nightly stays.

The other day San Bernardino County changed all unincorporated areas from short term allowable stays to now 30 day plus. The city areas are unaffected, but this goes to show how quickly the area's laws can change.

Some areas that still allow: Palm Springs (if the HOA has not hit the cap), Indio, Desert Hot Springs, Big Bear, Palm Desert has some HOAs that allow it, La Quinta has some HOAs that allow STRs, Yucca Valley, and some other local areas.

Brooklyn McCarty · Answer

I’d skip big bear as an investment  for all of the reasons you said.

Look at other national park vacation markets, outside of cali

Michael Baum · Answer

Hey @Rafael Ro, ok, so I don't expect you to buy knowing you will lose cashola.

Take some time and cruise VRBO and AirBNB and see what listings are in the immediate area you are looking. What are their nightly rates, occupancy and amenities. Take a look at their calendars to see how things look right now.

Also, check out the Awning.com estimator - https://www.awning.com/airbnb-...

It is free and pulls data like AirDNA. It is basic but you should get an idea of how things would perform for you.

Germán Rimoldi · Answer

Since you mentioned that the market may be saturated and prices are high, it would be beneficial to connect with individuals who are invested or working in the area. They can provide insights into the current trends, demand, and any recent changes in regulations regarding STRs. Local real estate agents, property managers, or even online forums dedicated to Big Bear can be excellent sources of information.

Considering your proximity to Big Bear, it makes sense to have your first rental property within driving distance. Being nearby will allow you to be more hands-on and manage the property effectively. However, as you mentioned, Southern California might not be the most favorable market for various reasons. Conducting thorough research and consulting with local professionals will help you make an informed decision regarding your investment.

Remember to consider factors such as ongoing expenses, maintenance costs, and potential rental income when evaluating the viability of an STR investment. Ultimately, gathering information from people with experience in the area will provide valuable insights to guide you in making the right decision.

Good luck with your endeavor, and I hope you find the information you're looking for!

Big Bear City/Lake STR Thoughts?

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