Property Management Stress Test

[Collin Hays]

In this current downdraft cycle in the Smokies, it reminds me a lot of the 2008-2011 time period.  I witnessed several PMs go out of business quite literally overnight, leaving owners and guests high and dry.

Here is what happens:  

PMs take lots of money in from future guests - advance deposits - that is legally required to go into an escrow account.  Those monies are not to be touched until they are paid out to homeowners for stays that have been completed.  But, but, but...some of these PMs are sitting on a few $ million, and can't resist dipping in every now and then to use the money to buy themselves a new boat, house, or lavish vacation.  "We will catch it back up someday" type of deal.  

After a year or two, they are running an escrow deficit of $200-300K.  That will work indefinitely, provided there isn't some black swan event where reservations come to a screeching halt.  Then, you are insolvent.  It's a bit of a variation on the Ponzi scheme, and PM owners can get themselves into this rather innocently at first, and it spirals out of control.

Once a PM realizes they are insolvent, they simply turn off the website and phones and walk away.  Hickory Mist was the last one to do this from the 2008-11 meltdown.  If things don't steady pretty soon, I expect to see a few PMs in the Smokies suddenly go dark. That will happen in a month like August, when they do not have the funds to completely pay homeowners for July rentals, due to the shortfall.

This is on my radar.

[Mayya Soibnazarova]

Unfortunately, we see this scenario more often than you'd think. Misuse of escrowed guest deposits is one of the first red flags we raise to ownership during our reviews. It’s a clear indicator of deeper cash flow and trust accounting issues that can quickly spiral.