REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: Visitors in 2025 down from 2024

Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions
8moFollow

REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: Visitors in 2025 down from 2024

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Right now, this is an unconfirmed number, but as of now, 11.75 million people visited the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in 2025.  It appears we are settling back into the range of 11.5 to 12 million visitors per year.  Considering that over 10,000 new rentals have been built since 2018, it's easy to understand how revenues for everyone are mostly down.

[email protected]806-672-7102
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
WebsiteView Page
4Reply
241 views

Most Popular Reply

Janice Carter
Real Estate Broker · Atlanta · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 606 votes
8mo

Collin, that is a huge number of visitors. I haven’t been to the Smoky Mountains in over 10 years but I can imagine how much it has changed since my last visit. With 10,000+ new rentals added since 2018, it makes sense that revenues are being spread thinner, even with visitor counts stabilizing in the 11.5–12 million range.

2Reply
See this reply in the discussion

13 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Caleb Brown
    Real Estate Agent · Kansas City · Member since 2018 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    8mo

    We are here visiting now. Seems like it's still a busy town but I do see so many new cabins, condos, etc that have been built. 

    0Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    8mo

    How do they track how many people visit the National Park?

    Don't some people just park on the side of the road and go hiking?

    0Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @John Underwood:

      How do they track how many people visit the National Park?

      Don't some people just park on the side of the road and go hiking?

      Every car that enters the park is counted, and then a multiple of that to arrive at total visitors. Might be a tiny bit of guesstimate on there, but it’s probably very close.
      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
      0Reply
  • Jeremy Horton
    Rental Property Investor · Somewhere over the Rainbow · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8mo

    I always love to see real world numbers from someone who actually has boots on the ground 

    @Collin Hays What's your prediction for 2026 and beyond?

    2Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Jeremy Horton:

      I always love to see real world numbers from someone who actually has boots on the ground 

      @Collin Hays What's your prediction for 2026 and beyond?

      I haven't ever been in the predicting business, because so much can be dependent on "black swan" events. Fires, floods, pandemics, etc. I believe that the visitors to the Smokies should be in the 12 million range this year, but I think that overall rents will continue to be soft, as another 800-900 properties are predicted to hit the STR market this year. Personally, I am budgeting for another 8 percent decline in total rents for 2026 for my own properties.

      The only way rents start climbing is 1) visitors climbs dramatically and/or 2) there is a restriction to the supply.  

      Easy math.

      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
      4Reply
  • Janice Carter
    Real Estate Broker · Atlanta · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 606 votes
    8mo

    Collin, that is a huge number of visitors. I haven’t been to the Smoky Mountains in over 10 years but I can imagine how much it has changed since my last visit. With 10,000+ new rentals added since 2018, it makes sense that revenues are being spread thinner, even with visitor counts stabilizing in the 11.5–12 million range.

    2Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Janice Carter:

      Collin, that is a huge number of visitors. I haven’t been to the Smoky Mountains in over 10 years but I can imagine how much it has changed since my last visit. With 10,000+ new rentals added since 2018, it makes sense that revenues are being spread thinner, even with visitor counts stabilizing in the 11.5–12 million range.

      Yes, but if you ask some of my homeowner clients, it’s all my fault. 🤣

      Not a big deal.  Part of the business.
      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
      0Reply
  • Robert C.
    FL · Member since 2013 · 41 posts · 34 votes
    8mo

    Interesting data - I still wonder where the western NC second home market is going to settle out from all of this.

    100%+ price increases since 2019, prices seem down a little from the 2023 peak, but it also looks like a seller's strike in the market I'm occasionally looking in.

    Not that many listings, still elevated prices, and properties either get pulled after 3-4 months or there's a grindy sales process and eventually someone buys for a little less than the previous comp.

    0Reply
  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    8mo

    As you mentioned it is very easy to see why revenues are down when you are back to 2018 or 2019 (i.e. pre-COVID levels), but the number of units has increased substantially. Is there any idea what new occupancy would need to be to make up for this added inventory and take on all that absorption? 

    7e investments53 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    1Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Chris Seveney:

      As you mentioned it is very easy to see why revenues are down when you are back to 2018 or 2019 (i.e. pre-COVID levels), but the number of units has increased substantially. Is there any idea what new occupancy would need to be to make up for this added inventory and take on all that absorption? 

      Generally, goal for properties under our management has been 280-310 nights per year, and 200-ish nights per year in the more outlying areas. There are still properties that can meet this threshold with no problem, but they stand above most in terms of intrinsic value - amazing views, waterfront, superb location. 

      We would need visitors to the Smokies to climb to 15-16 million for everyone to be busy.

      The moral of this story for investors is, buy quality.  Good returns are still out there for quality.  And “new” doesn’t equal quality.

      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
      3Reply
    • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @Chris Seveney:

      As you mentioned it is very easy to see why revenues are down when you are back to 2018 or 2019 (i.e. pre-COVID levels), but the number of units has increased substantially. Is there any idea what new occupancy would need to be to make up for this added inventory and take on all that absorption? 

      Generally, goal for properties under our management has been 280-310 nights per year, and 200-ish nights per year in the more outlying areas. There are still properties that can meet this threshold with no problem, but they stand above most in terms of intrinsic value - amazing views, waterfront, superb location. 

      We would need visitors to the Smokies to climb to 15-16 million for everyone to be busy.

      The moral of this story for investors is, buy quality.  Good returns are still out there for quality.  And “new” doesn’t equal quality.


       100% agree. The other things to consider is you do not need to follow the herd mentality and in this instance - prices skyrocketed during covid which makes sense. Now that was such a unique event (like selling snowblowers in mississippi right now - making a killing but will every year following this be the case - no), so you have to look at it long term

      7e investments53 Reviews
      WebsiteView Page
      0Reply
  • Jules Aton
    MD/DC · Member since 2024 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8mo

    It really is as simple as supply vs demand. I have never purchased a property without a solid pivot and exit plan.  @Collin Hays do you think occupancy will improve as the STR hype continues to wear down or has that sufficiently happened in the area?

    0Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Jules Aton:

      It really is as simple as supply vs demand. I have never purchased a property without a solid pivot and exit plan.  @Collin Hays do you think occupancy will improve as the STR hype continues to wear down or has that sufficiently happened in the area?

      For most properties, current occupancy levels are as good as they are going to get for the foreseeable future.  If you have a high quality property, that’s good news.

      If you do not, it’s going to be really disappointing.  In that case, it might be best to wait until September and see if you can offload it to sons buyer observed with getting a property in 2026 for the much-ballyhooed accelerated depreciation clause.


      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
      1Reply
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.
Log InJoin for Free