Phoenix Metro STR — Best Buying Window in Years

Phoenix Metro STR — Best Buying Window in Years

Investor · Phoenix Metro, AZ · Member since 2026 · 14 posts · 10 votes

Inventory is up 29% year over year, 76% of active listings are carrying price reductions, and motivated sellers are everywhere. Meanwhile national STR supply growth has slowed to around 4.6% projected for 2026, down from over 20% annually at the 2021-2022 peak.

Phoenix Metro is also outperforming the national market significantly. While national STR occupancy fell 13% in early 2026, Phoenix Metro posted a +10.2% year over year gain. The underlying demand remains strong.

For investors with capital ready this is worth paying attention to. I analyze Phoenix Metro STR deals every week and pass on the majority of what I see, but the ones that do work right now are genuinely compelling.

Are you finding motivated sellers in your market right now or is this more of a Phoenix-specific dynamic?

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Real Estate Investor · Casselberry, FL · Member since 2008 · 41 posts · 33 votes
5mo

I think there will always be those who thought they could do it on their own and want to dump it instead of identify what wasn't working and fix it.

One of my markets is not a major player so demand is good, but not great. We still find great opportunity every day and it is sticking to our numbers and rejecting want doesn't make sense. 

I think we'll see more of this in the next 12-18 months like I have seen in the apartment syndication area. Over zealous operators who cannot pivot.

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  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5mo

    @david totten posted interested data that showed majority of uptrending markets were in FL and AZ

    • Investor · Phoenix Metro, AZ · Member since 2026 · 14 posts · 10 votes
      5mo
      Quote from @Andrew Steffens:

      @david totten posted interested data that showed majority of uptrending markets were in FL and AZ


       Yes, I just read his post. That matches with what I'm seeing in the Phoenix Metro. FL and AZ have the regulatory environment that actually lets markets respond to demand.

  • Real Estate Investor · Casselberry, FL · Member since 2008 · 41 posts · 33 votes
    5mo

    I think there will always be those who thought they could do it on their own and want to dump it instead of identify what wasn't working and fix it.

    One of my markets is not a major player so demand is good, but not great. We still find great opportunity every day and it is sticking to our numbers and rejecting want doesn't make sense. 

    I think we'll see more of this in the next 12-18 months like I have seen in the apartment syndication area. Over zealous operators who cannot pivot.

    • Investor · Phoenix Metro, AZ · Member since 2026 · 14 posts · 10 votes
      5mo
      Quote from @John Racine:

      I think there will always be those who thought they could do it on their own and want to dump it instead of identify what wasn't working and fix it.

      One of my markets is not a major player so demand is good, but not great. We still find great opportunity every day and it is sticking to our numbers and rejecting want doesn't make sense. 

      I think we'll see more of this in the next 12-18 months like I have seen in the apartment syndication area. Over zealous operators who cannot pivot.


      Agreed. The owners who stay disciplined and know when to walk away from a deal will be fine. I think the ones who can't adjust are going to have a rough go of it.





  • Mike GrudzienPro Member
    Lender · Eugene, OR · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5mo

    Capture the snowbirds.

    • Investor · Phoenix Metro, AZ · Member since 2026 · 14 posts · 10 votes
      5mo
      Quote from @Mike Grudzien:

      Capture the snowbirds.

      Haha, good call! They are some of the best guests in this market. Longer stays, and they like to come back every year!
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