Hi BP

Been doing a lot of research on my first STR purchase. When analyzing the vacancy rates on AirBnb, VRBO, etc. for the different areas we're interested in, I'm wondering how far in the future I should be looking. Some STRs have bookings a year in advance while most seem to have empty calendars after 6 months out. For those that have STRs around the Disneyworld area can you tell me how far in the future I should be looking to get a good indication of your overall vacancy rate?

Hi,

Many people book last minute.  I would look only one month ahead for to assess for occupancy.  My townhouses in Kissimmee have averaged between 88 and 92% occupancy over the past 6 months, just FYI.  I think I am underpricing a little, though.  

Hope that helps 
 

Thanks Andrew. I've been looking in the NE Davenport area but been looking a full year in advance and been getting 25-30% occupancy.... which I didn't think was right.

Where is your townhouse? What are you charging?

Some people limit future bookings to 6 months. So anything beyond 6 months could be unreliable.

I drive by my local hotel/motels each evening and estimate the number of company work trucks in the parking lot.  They are generally a white 3/4 ton truck with a diesel tank or tool box in the bed, and the companies name on both the doors.

Originally posted by @Kip Zavitz :

Thanks Andrew. I've been looking in the NE Davenport area but been looking a full year in advance and been getting 25-30% occupancy.... which I didn't think was right.

Where is your townhouse? What are you charging?

They are in Windsor Hills.  The prices vary depending on the time of year.  I do a 9 month booking window but a 6 month booking window probably would work too.  Guests can book even 1 or 2 days prior to the date of stay.  

@Kip Zavitz  

I actually just finished a Real Estate Guys Radio podcast that says pretty much anywhere near Disneworld is a safe 70% - 75% 'occupancy' rate (STR investors don't really say vacancy rate, we go off of occupancy rate). They also said even in the 2008 crash it only dropped to 60% and that those rates are all year long.

That being said, your occupancy rate is going to be driven by your reviews and pricing so you can only take all that with a grain of salt, if you are not providing the right experience for your guests and the reviews show that, then you will have a zero occupancy rate.  :)

Hope that helps a little and best of luck!