Welcome, Manny, you’re asking the right questions, and your instincts are solid.
A few honest thoughts from someone who’s seen a lot of first deals:
• Your read on Zillow/Redfin is correct. Most "easy" flips are gone by the time they hit retail portals. If a deal has been sitting, it usually means the margin is thin, the rehab is trickier than it looks, or the ARV assumptions are optimistic. That doesn't mean they're all bad — just that you have to be very conservative.
• Using a HELOC for a first flip can work, but only if you structure it defensively. Smaller projects, shallow rehabs, strong comps, and plenty of buffer for overruns. The fastest way new investors get hurt is underestimating rehab and overestimating resale.
• Don’t overlook other ways to “break in” that are lower risk than a full flip:
– Live-in flip / cosmetic rehab
– Buy-and-hold with light value-add (even if cash flow is thin initially)
– Partnering on a deal where you bring the HELOC + project management and learn alongside someone experienced
• Your background in maintenance, reliability, and project management is actually a big advantage. The skill gap for most new investors isn’t execution — it’s underwriting and deal selection. If you get disciplined there, you’ll already be ahead of the curve.
• One quick litmus test: if the deal only works with perfect rehab numbers and top-of-market resale pricing, it’s probably not the right first deal.
BP is a great place to build reps, but nothing replaces walking deals with people who’ve done it before.
If you want to talk through a few real examples or sanity-check flip vs. alternative paths using your HELOC, message me, happy to hop on a call and jam on it.