Updated 2 days ago on . Most recent reply
Flood Zone Market
I’ve been watching a quietly profitable strategy play out in the St Petersburg market that’s worth discussing.
While most retail buyers are drawing a hard line at flood zones—thanks to insurance hikes, FEMA map updates, and nonstop doom headlines—some investors are doing the opposite. They're leaning into those areas, not because the risk disappeared, but because it's being overpriced by fear.
The result? Less competition, deeper discounts, and sellers who’ve already accepted that their buyer pool is smaller. Investors stepping in aren’t ignoring climate risk—they’re underwriting a different variable entirely: timing. The bet isn’t “no hurricanes ever,” it’s “no material event during my hold.”
2024 was a good case study. Hurricane Milton made landfall with media buildup and physical damage, but some investors I talk to see it as opportunity for buy and hold. Most investors are still stunned by the damage it caused.
That said, this is not a passive or careless strategy. Insurance structure, deductibles, elevation data, reserves, and exit liquidity matter far more here than in non-flood areas. One underwritten assumption gone wrong can wipe out several years of returns.
The question I keep coming back to:
Are current flood-zone discounts a temporary market overreaction driven by sentiment—or a durable risk premium that disciplined investors can continue to monetize by managing (not ignoring) the risk? Was Milton a once in a lifetime hurricane?
Curious to hear how others are seeing this right now.