The Spreadsheet Usually Isn’t What Kills The Deal

[Georgii Grigoriants]

A lot of newer investors spend enormous amounts of time optimizing purchase price, rehab budgets, cap rates, and projected ROI.

But many deals don’t actually fall apart on the spreadsheet.

They fall apart during execution.

Especially in tougher operating environments, timeline risk quietly becomes one of the biggest threats to investor returns.

A spreadsheet doesn’t model:
• a 5-month permit delay
• an inspector rescheduling three times
• utility coordination issues
• insurance repricing mid-project
• contractor availability problems
• financing extensions
• redesign costs after plan review
• holding costs quietly compounding every extra month

On paper, the deal may still look perfectly profitable.

But once execution friction starts compounding, margins can evaporate surprisingly fast.

I think experienced operators increasingly evaluate:
• execution capacity
• municipal friction
• timeline stability
• and operational complexity

just as heavily as the actual purchase price itself.

Curious what “invisible” execution issue has hurt deals the most for people lately:
Permits? Financing? Insurance? Contractors? Utilities? Something else?