THE FIRST FLIP! Getting over analysis paralysis.

12 Replies

Hello everybody,

Thank you for reading this post. I am a 24 year old landscaper in tucson az and been studding real estate investing, in bigger pockets and been doing my due diligence for about two years and now i think its time to PULL THE TRIGGER. 

I don't want to get stuck in analysis paralysis as i think I am ready. as im going to get for my first deal. 

I met this wholesaler/flipper from a bandit sign(very common in Tucson). I just called this sign yesterday, told him I'm a new investor, and he text me a deal. "This is a good deal for your first flip" he said. Now, he seems like a very good guy, down to earth, even trusted me to go to the property, go inside and take a look at it. 

I got privet money ready along with a team to rehab the property and a real estate agent to sell to market the property. But how can i know if he is trustworthy or is giving me a good deal? Should i even question that? Do i have to do that with every wholesaler that i come in contact? What is the exact equation to find out if his info is true? I just want to pull the trigger and my stupid skepticism is getting in the way. 

PLEAS HELP!!!!

You should be asking your realtor for the ARV numbers. Not his assessment of what he thinks. Your realtor will be selling it, always use real numbers. Get you contractors over and have them look at it if you don't know exactly what your looking at. All wholesalers know the numbers and percentages that your looking for and will try and bump up there ARV value to try and get a little more. You said that you have a team ready, have them take a look at it and if it looks good from your end pull the trigger.

I agree with

@Eric Doud a CMA from your realtor for ARV is absolutely necessary. It's not that the wholesaler is necessarily dishonest, but it's easy to artificially inflate your numbers when you're looking for the best ROI you can get. The contractors would be a great help in estimating your repair costs to make sure the home falls in a comfortable profit level.

Get a conservative ARV from a good realtor who knows Tucson.

ARV

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Profit

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Holding Costs

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Sales Costs

Rehab Costs 

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MAO = Maximum Allowable Offer .

Keep your rehabs tight and make it so that 80 percent of the target market walking the property likes it.

Drink a shot of tequila when you get the cheque from title!

Tapan Trivedi

@Christian Alcaraz  

Your realtor needs to provide you with a comparable analysis on the property to determine the ARV. You also need to learn how to do your own ARV calculations. In the meantime, have your realtor calculate it, then use the Bigger Pocket Flip Calculator to figure out if it's a good deal...

https://www.biggerpockets.com/flip-analysis

thank you @Wendy Vaidic  @Eric Doud and @Hattie Dizmond this is all helpful. And @Tapan Trivedi  i will take a shot after... definitely, thanks again.

Hi Christian one golden rule when it comes to your flips is have your team first which seems like you and more importantly do your DUE DILIGENCE I cannot stress that enough. I am sure the wholesaler is a good guy but the numbers have to work and many times in my own experience I have found that alot of these wholesalers don't have a clue about rehab cost or at times the deal is too tight. You along with your team should go through the numbers and if the numbers make sense than pull the trigger and if not walk away, Good Luck 

I've been new for a while but have recently gotten some serious traction and have made a deal, working on a second. 

Most people would agree with me when I say that even if you don't make a buck, just DOING SOMETHING is your best bet. It's amazing how much confidence you gain just by taking action. When it pays off, and it will, the world begins exposing opportunity everywhere you go that you might not have seen before. 

Keep it up, man! 

I agree with everyone elses posts here. Get a conservative ARV from your realtor, multiply that number by 70%, then subtract the estimated cost of rehab your contractor gives you. If the number you come up with is in the ball park of what the wholesaler is quoting you, PULL THE TRIGGER ;-)

@Christian Alcaraz   Be firm on your numbers, don't use "eraser math" and change the numbers to make it a deal. If it is a deal, the numbers will scream profit. If that doesn't happen, don't try to make a deal out of a pig. 

How do you know if a wholesaler is good? You don't, until you verify the numbers. Some are good, and some try to wholesale MLS listings with a $10k markup.

Originally posted by @Mark Moore:

I've been new for a while but have recently gotten some serious traction and have made a deal, working on a second. 

Most people would agree with me when I say that even if you don't make a buck, just DOING SOMETHING is your best bet. It's amazing how much confidence you gain just by taking action. When it pays off, and it will, the world begins exposing opportunity everywhere you go that you might not have seen before. 

Keep it up, man! 

 Only to a certain extent. Doing something when you make sure it looks good is a positive step, being careless and just jumping in to muddy waters results in neck injuries or worse. ;)

Even when you make sure the numbers are good, way too many things can go wrong in a flip. It is not the reality show dream job that they portray. It is hard, risky work. Not saying don't do it, but go into it with at least enough knowledge to not be paying for your mistakes for years to come. 

Sometimes jumping in the water is the only way to learn how to swim. 

One of my favorite quotes is " You can't steal 2nd base with one foot on 1st. "

I think you are doing the right thing by going forward and trying a deal out and learning from mistakes. In most cases, real estate is a vehicle where mistakes can be sustained and still make a profit. 

Best of luck in all your endeavors.   

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