What happened to my $30,000 profit?

What happened to my $30,000 profit?

Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes

I thought I would post a recap of my first flip, a deal I thought was a slam dunk but didn't turn out to be in the end. The house directly next door, which was identical to mine, sold for $105k earlier that year and there were several other supporting comps in that price range or higher. The projected numbers were: 

Purchase price: $27k 

Acquisition costs: $4k

Rehab: $33k

Holding costs: $3k

Closing costs/commissions: $8k

Sale price: $105k

Profit: $30k

What killed this deal was a combination of going over budget by about $10k, but more importantly, the area in which this home was located. An extreme lack of qualified buyers (and those that were qualified expected EVERYTHING to be perfect) combined with a large inventory of flip-level homes lead to a severe imbalance in supply and demand. Had I paid closer attention to the market, I would've noticed the glut of inventory and probably lowered the price and/or accepted a much lower offer than I was initially hoping for.

When all was said and done, the home fell out of escrow twice and with the end of selling season approaching, I decided to put a tenant in the home. I was able to rent it out for $1,200 a month on a 1.5 year lease, which puts me in a position to try and resell in the spring of '17. As it sits, the home cash flows nicely, and if I can refinance out my initial investment, it will make a great addition to my portfolio.

Things learned:

Know your buyer: Who's buying? How many are buying? What do they expect as far as fit and finish? 

Dig deeper into the comps: What was the home originally listed for? How long did it take to sell? 

Pay attention to current competition: What kind of product are you competing with? How many homes like yours are there? What are they selling for? How long have they been on the market?

Have multiple exit strategies: Run a worse case scenario. What if the home doesn't sell? Can you rent it? 

Budget for overages: 10% is standard. If the home is older and lower priced, 20% is probably more realistic. Always err on the side of caution. Run your numbers to reflect worst-case.

All in all, although I didn't make what I thought I would, it was a great learning experience and I may just end up with a great rental. 

BEFORE:

AFTER:

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J ScottPro Member
Moderator
Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
10y
Originally posted by :
@J Scott Do you mind sharing what your biggest hurdles were when flipping in the Milwaukee area? 

- Older homes in need of major repairs

- High cost of materials

- High cost of labor

- Lack of available labor

- Uncooperative weather

- Strict building codes

- Very picky buyers

- General distrust of flippers in the area 

- Large seasonal price fluctuations

Of course, none of those things is a big deal if you can pick up deals at a price that accounts for those factors.  Unfortunately, the deals I was finding weren't good enough to overcome those factors.  While we made decent money over the 20 or so flips we did there, it wasn't enough to be worth the time and stress of dealing with long-distance rehabs. 

BTW, the picky buyers were the worst.  There are very few fully rehabbed houses in that area, yet buyers expected rehabs to be like new  construction.  I've rehabbed 150+ houses in various areas and it was the only place I ever had buyers complain that our scope of work was too incomplete -- things like not replacing ten year old roofs and sidewalks having small cracks.  It was ridiculous, and likely fueled by the general distrust of investors in the area (in my opinion).  Not to mention some of the worst real estate agents I've ever dealt with. 

I'm not blaming the buyers, the contractors, the agents or anyone else... I just wasn't able to make enough of a profit there for it to be worth the effort for me. 

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  • Flipper/Rehabber · Tustin, CA · Member since 2015 · 433 posts · 103 votes
    10y

    Definitely a great attitude. Learn from your mistakes..and others..and grow with them. It just makes your next investment so much easier =). 

  • Herndon, VA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 324 votes
    10y

    Would you have done different renovations for a rental vs. a flip?

    How is the property financed?

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    10y

    Great post @Matt Morgan.  So many people do not know how to correctly comp and interpret the market.  There is a flip right down the street from me, but I wouldnt never use that price as a comp, because it took them 6 months to sell it. So that one buyer, however they eventually found them does not create a market.

  • Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    10y

    Very true @Polar Prutaseranee, there's always something to learn.

    @Jesse T. Absolutely. I probably could've saved at least $10k or so if I did a rental grade product. I wouldv'e carpeted vs. refinishing HWF, forgone the finished basement, and left the garage roof as-is. 

    @Russell Brazil Thanks. I think in some areas (Los Angeles, Denver, Phoenix), the market is so hot that you can maybe make some mistakes as far as interpreting the market, but in most, it's very important to pay close attention to more than just the numbers.

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    10y

    Probably a blessing in disguise.  Your silent partner, the IRS, just reduced their stake 22%!

  • Rental Property Investor · Gainesville, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 432 votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan I'm not clear on if you made the profit of $30k but was forecasting more or you didn't make the $30k you wanted to make?

  • Lender · Upland, CA · Member since 2009 · 112 posts · 27 votes
    10y

    Hi Matt,

    Yep, in the first flip we normally have a tendency to over do it and not stick to the rehab budget and with that a big portion of our profits go to the rehab budget, but no worries, pay more attention on the next one and you should do better.

    By the way, is that property in Phoenix?, it does not look like the typical property in Arizona.

    Also, we are looking for deals in Phoenix, are you wholeselling there? sent me a PM to connect.

  • Lender · Denver, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 597 votes
    10y

    Great Post, Nice Rehab and Fantastic Attitude.

    You will do just fine on this deal when you resell. Good for you, getting out and doing your first deal - this gives you the confidence to keep going and more education than you could ever receive in book or on a forum.

  • Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    10y

    @Steve Vaughan Now there's a silver lining!

    @Daria B. I initially projected a $30k profit but instead rented it out. So aside from some cashflow, I haven't made anything yet.

    @Juan Carlos Quiroz Zolezzi That home is actually in Milwaukee, but I invest both there and here in Phoenix. I'll send you a request.

    @Travis Sperr Thanks! The vast majority of my investments have been winners but I do know that in real estate, things rarely go as planned. 

  • Lender · Upland, CA · Member since 2009 · 112 posts · 27 votes
    10y

    lol, that's what I thought, the brick, layout and grass did not seem to Arizonian...

  • Real Estate Agent · Milwaukee County, WI · Member since 2009 · 3k+ posts · 525 votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan please private message me your basement

    and kitchen contractor information.

    Property is located in zip code 53216 or 53222 ?

  • Developer · New Orleans, LA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 898 votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan Thanks for sharing!

    It sounds like you are a renovated property for something in the $75-80k acquisition range, that you are renting for $1200/month.  That sounds like a winner in a buy and hold strategy. I would love to have some of those around me (a $75k house would rent for ~$800-900/month), still good cash flow.

    Was that tile in the basement? Just wondering cause it looks like carpet now.

  • Real Estate Broker · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2014 · 338 posts · 129 votes
    10y
    Matt Morgan what was the reason for such the high rehab cost? I at first assumed you over built for the area (done that myself) and was expecting to see granite counter tops, tiled tub surrounds, recessed lighting ext. However based on your pictures the finishes are what I would expect for that price point.
  • Rental Property Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 280 posts · 176 votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan Look on the bright side, you have a cash flowing property! You may have initially wanted a flip but you never know, you may enjoy the benefits of monthly income as well as the tax benefits and appreciation benefits that come with renting. You could always look at doing an %80 cash-out refinance if you want to tide you over in the near term. As far as going over budget goes, easy to do especially on a first flip. I think I see a few things in the photos that probably cost a bit more (i.e. stainless appliances, nicer flooring,). Make note of how you would do things differently and put a plan together for next time and next time, stick to it! good luck! 

  • Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    10y

    @Ramon Jenkins 53216. Grasslyn Manor to be specific. I'll PM you.

    @Mike Wood Thanks Mike. Yes, I'm about $80k all in @ $1,200 a month in rent. Not my best, but not terrible. There was tile in the basement but we removed it due to water damage and put in carpet.

    @Sam Erickson This was a $27k house in a decent area, so suffice it to say it needed a lot of work. Major costs were finished basement, new kitchen, new windows, HWF, garage roof, new siding, paint, etc. Then there's a mile long list of miscellaneous stuff as well. Had the home sold for the projected price, I wouldn't be unhappy with the total rehab cost. 

    @Account Closed Thanks for the kind words. I'm looking to cash out refinance and potentially keep in my portfolio.

  • Developer · New Orleans, LA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 898 votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan Shame about not being able to save the tile, assuming holding it for a rental.  But I totally understand the $ and bet carpet made the most sense for your price point.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan  these type of homes are rarely flips... to retail.

    in any major metro area... buyers for retail especially with todays rates will have 1000 to 2000 for housing allowances and that will allow them 140 to 250 mortgages and that is why they will buy.. if they qualify credit wise

    not many that can only qualify for 100k loan because of income have great credit that is your renter pool... by and large of course I cast a wide net but by and large

  • Real Estate Agent · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    that is a great lesson for all of us. The ability to have a back up plan and the flexibility to change direction. Also why it is always better to use cash instead of a hard money loan. In 18 months you will have made $15000  back from the rent, so in either case you are a winner. I bet you will still make your $30000 or more at the lease end

  • Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    10y

    @Mike Wood I actually prefer carpet in bedrooms and basements. Anything but that just rubs me the wrong way when I see it. Call it a stigma.

    @Jay Hinrichs That actually makes a lot of sense. If a person paying $1,200 a month in rent wanted to buy a house, that same $1,200 in rent would get them a much nicer house. (This isn't the case in some areas, but Milwaukee's price to rent ratio is so out of whack it's especially true) However, a lot of these sub $100k buyers are getting their downpayment paid for through assistance programs, and I'm not sure that would be the case for more expensive properties, which would keep them away from that price point.

  • Residential Agent And Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2013 · 212 posts · 83 votes
    10y

    @Account Closed Ya, I wanted to illustrate the point that although I did my due diligence and ran my numbers for the most part correctly, this deal still fell well short of what it was supposed to be. It's important to go that extra mile to insulate yourself from worst case scenarios or things out of your control.

    Also, hard money may still have been feasible here if I had a bank lined up and ready to go with a cash out refinance. 

  • Dawn AnastasiPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2013 · 6k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y

    It's very challenging to successfully do a flip in the city of Milwaukee.  J Scott has had some limited success in the suburbs of Milwaukee, but he eventually pulled out.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    10y

    @Matt Morgan  as you found out that buyer pool HAS ton's of options and is very difficult to get to the finish line.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Dawn Anastasi:

    It's very challenging to successfully do a flip in the city of Milwaukee.  J Scott has had some limited success in the suburbs of Milwaukee, but he eventually pulled out.

    Funny... When I first saw the pictures I thought to myself that that looked like Milwaukee and was going to respond. But then I saw the poster's state was listed as Arizona, and assumed I was wrong. 

  • RN · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 69 posts · 29 votes
    10y

    Thank you for sharing this... very informative

  • Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2011 · 509 posts · 134 votes
    10y

    I think a better topic of conversation is that Maryvale deal ;)

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