Why isn't Maple Valley, WA appreciating much anymore?

Question

Last summer my rental in Maple Valley was worth about 450K based on comps.

Then it went down to 425K. Even houses 5 doors down that were the EXACT same floor plan and age in the same subdivision were selling for 425K. It lost 25K in value over the year instead of going up.

WTH?

I'm debating selling it and 1031 exchanging into more entry level properties in the 300-350K range.

Jake Alger · Answer

I agree with everyone above me.

Between the drive and a little more inventory for renters, that may be the effect.  The travel time during rush hour can be pretty bad.

I know a lot of people I have talked to lately have clients who are looking in Kent on the East Hill and south (still between 167 and 18).  That area is really, really hot right now with not a lot of inventory.  It's only a matter of time before there's nothing left between 167 and 18 that people can afford.  It'll push out, just a bit too far away for some people at the moment.

Brett Malen · Answer

Commute has been getting noticeably worse since I moved here in 2013 to the eastside. Thank goodness work from home is becoming more of a thing. In MV I've only seen appreciation in my rental and primary residence in fact I tracking a +$25k jump in primary. Looking to sell the rental this summer while its hot.

Jeff Dzado · Answer

I considered living there. Great costs compared to closer to Seattle. My manager considered moving there. Lakeside property for much less cost. We're both from the Boston area in the last few years.

Google Maps during rush hour has the answer--plain and clear. 2 hour commute to Seattle.

Jack B. · Answer

The Tahoma school district is one of the best in the country. In fact Maple Valley was listed as a top 10 to relocate to in the entire country. The house is walking distance to the new high school that opened last year. I don't think that's it either. People have specifically bought in MV for the Tahoma SD. In fact a development down the street ended up getting sued because the buyers of the brand new homes thought they were going to be in the TSD.

At the end of the day, it doesn't sound like anyone has any concrete data on why MV is stalling right now. That's what I'm looking for but have yet to find any.

Aaron Nelson · Answer

@Jack B. - Re: Strategies, it depends on your goals. Happy to chat with you. Feel free to reach out. Thanks!

Jake Alger · Answer

Hi @Jack B.,

I think my point was a little misunderstood. I wasn’t saying that people are renting over in Maple Valley instead of buying. My working theory is simply that people would rather rent since inventory is higher and live closer to the city, avoiding commutes and being closer to everything. Not that Maple Valley is much farther away but during rush hour commutes I can seem like it is.

I’ve had first hand knowledge of this happening many times over with younger folks in the last year or so.

You can also contribute to that fact that a lot of the overseas money hitting the market want the Bellevue school district, Kent school district, Issaquah school districts.

There’s much more at play than what I originally mentioned, but those are my theories for slower appreciation. It’s only a matter of time before that changes.

Jack B. · Answer

Maple Valley is primarily single family houses in nearly new developments. Not a ton of families moving from 3K sf houses into apartments and studios in DT Seattle...

Jack B. · Answer

About 95% of people who live in MV own, not rent according to the census data. The rental market in Seattle can't be it...And traffic? Seattle and Redmond have worse traffic, yet they are still appreciating like crazy...Traffic can't be the cause...

Jack B. · Answer

What better strategies? If you're talking MF, I've been looking for an apartment complex for YEARS. All that I find are dumps with ridiculous proforma's that hope to con an unsuspecting buyer.

One of the rentals I bought in SeaTac last year has gone up 100K in value. Another in Federal Way went up 30K. My primary residence was going up 100K a year each year near Newcastle. The list goes on. Yet somehow my rental in Maple Valley stalled last year, went down in price, but has come back with a vengeance this spring. I'm hoping it hits 500K by next summer if not more. Maple Valley is seeing a slow down IMO.

Why isn't Maple Valley, WA appreciating much anymore?

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