Share lessons learned in bear market

Share lessons learned in bear market

Member since 2018 · 72 posts · 25 votes

I saw some multifamily investors adopting BRRRR suffering from refinance and valuation loss due to higher mortgage rate. Making money in bull market is easy. However, they suffer great loss on bear market when levarage is high. May I have some suggestion about the real lessons about the bear market? Expecting someone who can share the examples of strategy to flourish in apartment investing during 2008 and 2022.

1) Should we reduce the velocity of money by using a conservative DSCR value on purchase so that it is easy to refinance? Should we increase cash reserve?

2) Should we lock longer years on the mortgage instead of 3-year, 5-year fixed for commercial loan on refinance time? However, locking longer year will have higher prepayment penalty and it is natural to use 3-year or 5-year fixed rate or ARM these days as that is when renovation of apartment completes and ready to cash out original downpayment.

3) Should we stick with 1% rule to achieve rich cash flow in apartment investing? ( I am living in Bay Area and local investor. Most of the apartments in Bay Area Class A, B property can only achieve 0.6~0.7 percent rule. )

4). Should we select one property has more discount ratio so that we can have a good position when bear market arrives?

5). Psychology problem of me: With limited capital, I found out I am a bit greedy on the asset volumn and how to conque this psychology problem?

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  • Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    2mo

    As long as you have fixed rate long term debt, to quote Bill Murray, "it just doesn't matter". (What the property is worth.). I owned LTR SFR through the Great Recession in Vegas, I'm told over and over it was the worst in the country and people lost their shirts. Here's what happened.

    I had several $200k properties drop to $100k value, and the rents doubled from $800ish to $1600+. Sure those properties are worth $500k today but that doesn’t matter. During the recession the income skyrocketed and I wasn’t selling, so the value didn’t matter.  

    Let me tell you what else happens during a REAL recession. I’m buying more of those were $200k and now are $100k homes as fast as I can. EVERYBODY thinks I’m stupid, going to lose all my money, they’re going to keep going down, etc etc.  Not one person said wow you’re smart, good thinking.  Even when I told them I wa putting down $25k and in 15 years the property would be paid off by the tenants. Did they think the property would be worth less than $25k in 15 years? They just stared at me, basic math couldn’t overcome fear. 

    It’s what I thought about for the 7-10 years from 2014-2021+ when everybody said they were waiting on the sidelines to jump in after the crash (As prices doubled.).  Eventually I would ask. You’re afraid to buy now. Why won’t you be too afraid when everyone else is scared too? You can explain recency bias.  And people say they understand. But still….

    Anyway. The value doesn’t matter until you want to sell or refi.  Treat your real estate like your retirement accounts. If the value of your properties is lower in 15 years than they are today the country will be experiencing bigger problems than you can imagine. Real estate is weird that way. In 30 years not one person I know has said wow that’s working out for you. Hey can you help me invest in real estate? All I hear is how risky it is even if I offer to help.  It’s a lot like when your friend tells you not to buy that exotic car because they break down all the time. You so if they’ve ever had one, has anyone they know ever had one? Nope and nope. But everyone knows it. That’s why rich people buy them. Because they love hassles and headaches in their life. 

    Anyway. I’m going to say congratulations on getting started, that’s way more than half the battle. Don’t use short term or exotic financing, keep some reserves or credit cards. Frow your freedom one small step at a time. It’s pretty great. 

    • Member since 2018 · 72 posts · 25 votes
      2mo
      Quote from @Bill B.:

      As long as you have fixed rate long term debt, to quote Bill Murray, "it just doesn't matter". (What the property is worth.). I owned LTR SFR through the Great Recession in Vegas, I'm told over and over it was the worst in the country and people lost their shirts. Here's what happened.

      I had several $200k properties drop to $100k value, and the rents doubled from $800ish to $1600+. Sure those properties are worth $500k today but that doesn’t matter. During the recession the income skyrocketed and I wasn’t selling, so the value didn’t matter.  

      Let me tell you what else happens during a REAL recession. I’m buying more of those were $200k and now are $100k homes as fast as I can. EVERYBODY thinks I’m stupid, going to lose all my money, they’re going to keep going down, etc etc.  Not one person said wow you’re smart, good thinking.  Even when I told them I wa putting down $25k and in 15 years the property would be paid off by the tenants. Did they think the property would be worth less than $25k in 15 years? They just stared at me, basic math couldn’t overcome fear. 

      It’s what I thought about for the 7-10 years from 2014-2021+ when everybody said they were waiting on the sidelines to jump in after the crash (As prices doubled.).  Eventually I would ask. You’re afraid to buy now. Why won’t you be too afraid when everyone else is scared too? You can explain recency bias.  And people say they understand. But still….

      Anyway. The value doesn’t matter until you want to sell or refi.  Treat your real estate like your retirement accounts. If the value of your properties is lower in 15 years than they are today the country will be experiencing bigger problems than you can imagine. Real estate is weird that way. In 30 years not one person I know has said wow that’s working out for you. Hey can you help me invest in real estate? All I hear is how risky it is even if I offer to help.  It’s a lot like when your friend tells you not to buy that exotic car because they break down all the time. You so if they’ve ever had one, has anyone they know ever had one? Nope and nope. But everyone knows it. That’s why rich people buy them. Because they love hassles and headaches in their life. 

      Anyway. I’m going to say congratulations on getting started, that’s way more than half the battle. Don’t use short term or exotic financing, keep some reserves or credit cards. Frow your freedom one small step at a time. It’s pretty great. 


       Thanks for the encouragement and precious experience sharing.

  • Michael K GallagherBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2mo

    @Bill B. this is the kinda outlook and action I can get behind.  thank's for sharing.

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