Duplex Analysis: 3/2 per side

[Mark S.]

Okay, so in addition to the 3/2 I posted about a few days ago (which I'm going to take another look at today), I'm also trying to analyze this duplex. I'm going to approach this a little backwards and list all numbers and try to "back into" what the purchase price should be at the end. Here it goes:

DUPLEX - 3BR/2BA, about 1,200 sq ft each side. About 10 years old. Going to see this today, but appears to be B class neighborhood (will confirm later).

Expected Rents: $650/unit = $1,300/month. Tenants to pay all utilities.

Estimated Taxes: $1,850/yr (on high end; could be closer to $1,400 on low end)
Estimated Insurance: $700/yr
Taxes + Insurance = $212.50/mo

Other Expenses
Property Management (@10% only when rented): $130/mo-vacancy = $112/mo
Vacancy Loss (@ 13.90%): $2,168/yr = $181/mo
This is extremely high and could be unlikely, but according to a website I use for information on the area, it says this is the average for this area because of seasonality.
Ongoing Maintenance (@10% based on 100% occupancy): $130/mo
Cap-Ex/Maintenance Reserves (@10% based on 100% occupancy): $130/mo
Total Other Expenses = $553/mo

Financing: 20% down, 30yr fixed @5%. P&I based on different purchase prices:

$100,000: $429/mo
$90,000: $387/mo
$85,000: $365/mo
$80,000: $344/mo
$75,000: $322/mo

I doubt I will get it less than $75,000, and more likely we'll be closer to the $85,000-$90,000 range.

So, based upon these (whichI believe to be EXTREMELY conservative numbers), if I buy it at $90,000, I would cashflow just under $150/mo on the whole duplex.

If I take the mid-point on the estimated taxes ($1,625/yr), a more normal (but still conservative) vacancy figure of 10% ($130/mo), a slightly less maintenance reserve of 8% or $104/mo (since it's only 10 years old), my numbers look a tad different at: $243/mo positive cashflow.

What do you guys think? Thanks in advance! By the way, I'm going to look at it today, so I'm not sure what, if any, repairs are needed. Will post again soon. In the meantime, your thoughts are appreciated.