How to determine TRUE ARV's when out of state

Question

Hi Friends,

I am looking to flip in the Tampa area and I'm in touch with a few Wholesalers and Realtors there.

I have received multiple properties from them; however, I am always concerned that their ARVs are inflated, which will leave me in the red.

How do you determine correct ARVs when you are not physically present and can't pull your own comps from the MLS?

Kevin Sobilo · Answer

@Zalman Schurder, a few thoughts:

1. Why can't you pull comps? Zillow allows you to search for Sales, rentals, and SOLD listings! Just select that you are searching for sold listings and then select your other filters and you can find comps.

2. You want a Realtor in your corner! So, get one to represent you as a buyer even on a wholesale deal if needed. Ask them to provide comps but be specific for what you want and ask for more than you need this way you can discard any that aren't suitable. If you want 3-4 good comps ask for 8-10.

3. In some places, the assessor is a good source for comps. In the olden days before the MLS was online back in the 1980s, when an appraiser wanted comps for an appraisal they could often call the local assessor and describe what they wanted and the assessor would give them info on recent comparable sales.

To that end, some assessor websites still have features that allow you to search sold listings to find comparable sales that way as well.

Melissa Brooks · Answer

The only true way of understanding a property's ARV is to analyze the comps for similar-condition properties in the area. Keep in mind that you can't over improve an asset just to get a higher value. Instead, you have to analyze the highest and best use (and what the typical buyer's expectations) and use that for your ARV.

Alex Morales · Answer

This is honestly the biggest challenge with remote investing. A few things I've learned:

1. Never trust a wholesaler's ARV at face value - they're incentivized to inflate. Always verify independently.

2. Build your own comp analysis process:

- Use Redfin/Zillow to find 3-5 sold comps within 0.5 miles, similar sqft (+/- 15%), same bed/bath config

- Adjust for condition, lot size, and any upgrades

- Cross-reference with what's currently active to see how the market is moving

3. Tech tools can help speed this up. I've been testing a few - PropStream has good data, and there's a newer one called PropLab that uses AI to auto-adjust comps which saves time when you're running a lot of numbers quickly.

4. Most importantly: build a relationship with ONE local agent who actually invests themselves. They'll give you the real deal because they understand your numbers need to work.

Tampa specifically has been tricky lately with insurance costs factoring into what buyers will pay. Make sure your ARV accounts for that.

Bo Smith · Answer

Here's something that's helped me avoid bad deals: always ask for photos of the recent sales they're using as comps. Numbers lie but pictures don't. If their $300k comp needed a full reno and yours is turnkey, you're not really comparing apples to apples. I also check how long similar properties are sitting on the market - anything over 45-60 days usually means the ARV is too optimistic. Do you get to see the actual condition of their comps or just the sale prices?

Havan Surat · Answer

I am also looking for looking into remote flips and wondering is there any better software program for investors such as propstream in calculating accurate ARVs

Jorge Vazquez · Answer

That’s a smart concern. We’ve been doing this in Tampa for 20+ years and are known for very conservative, real-world ARVs and pricing.

Happy to help if you want a second set of eyes from a team that focuses on accuracy, not hype.

How to determine TRUE ARV's when out of state

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