[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal- CA duplex- am I an idiot

[Ned J.]

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*This link comes directly from our calculators, based on information input by the member who posted.

I'm in CA and almost nothing cash flows out here unless you are buying off market or buy cash or do huge value ad properties. CA is a whole different animal when it comes to really looking at deals. When I run properties out here, they all suck. I've found one that may be as good as I can get... and it still isn't good. I did get it under contract but I've got major cold feet and need someone to give me an unbiased opinion. 

Duplex- 2 units totaling 2300 sq ft

3 Bedroom, 2 bath

Price 710k

Interest rate 6.5 

25% down...so 177k, plus closing and prepay etc I need 185k at closing

Closing cost 7k (got 5k seller credit0

PITI $4200

Current rents $4600 total... about market right now

Most of the SFH renting for $2300 are >350k and up right now

Positives

Its 30 min from my house and do all my management and most of my repairs, maintenance etc when I'm capable of the job

Its pretty "turnkey"... roof 10 years ago, waters heaters 4 yr, HVAC 5 yr, kitchen and bath remodels <5 years ago, it's in great condition so a lot of the Capex will be farther down the road

Its fully occupied and at market rent. I've toured both sides and they are near immaculate, so it looks like its got good tenants and both have been there about 2-3 years. So I dont anticipate any vacancy issues soon and in general vacancy is pretty low in our area

Another exact same unit down the street just sold for same price (same owner) but it was an FHA loan and the rent was lower on one side and vacant on the other- I assume a house hack but no idea. With an FHA or cash, the numbers would look way better

Negatives

The short term numbers suck when you factor in all the other expenses. This would have to be a long term play for sure. Its not going to truly cash flow for a couple of years and even then the numbers aren't very good until we get past 5 years at least. And that's all assuming rents slowly climb, prices slowly climb... which in CA is historically accurate but not always. Nothing is guaranteed.... and my numbers that arent very good are somewhat best case scenario and we all know how that goes. The appreciation in 10+ years may be great, but until then its not making me much $$. I'm 57 and have lots of other assets, but don't necessarily want to wait until I'm 70 to have this pay off for us. I want cash flow, but I don't necessarily have to have it soon. 

Big part of me is talking myself into this deal. Its CA and there isnt much to choose from. Anyplace else in the country and this is pretty much a no brainer to pass on. In CA we cant be as picky for short term gains

So all my CA people.... am I an idiot for even thinking of doing this?