Case Study: When a Profitable Flip Stops Working
Hypothetical example for discussion only. These figures are illustrative, not a recommendation or a representation of an actual offering.
A newer investor finds a single-family flip with a $220,000 purchase price, a $70,000 renovation budget, and an expected resale value of $380,000. At first glance, the spread looks like $90,000. That sounds comfortable.
Then the full base case is built:
Purchase: $220,000
Renovation: $70,000
Acquisition and financing costs: $15,000
Six months of interest, taxes, insurance, utilities, and lawn care: $12,000
Selling and closing costs: $30,000
Total projected cost: $347,000
Projected profit before income taxes: $33,000
The headline spread was $90,000, but the actual base-case margin is only $33,000. Now consider a realistic downside case. The resale value comes in 5 percent below the original estimate, renovation costs increase by $15,000, and permitting and contractor sequencing add two months to the schedule.
Revised resale value: $361,000
Revised renovation cost: $85,000
Additional carrying cost: $8,000
Estimated selling costs: $29,000
The projected profit is now close to break-even before taxes and before any additional surprise. The deal did not fail because of one catastrophic event. Several ordinary assumptions moved in the wrong direction at the same time.
This is why I like to underwrite three cases before closing:
1. Base case: What is reasonably expected?
2. Downside case: What happens with a lower value, higher rehab cost, and longer timeline?
3. Survival case: If the sale is delayed or the price falls further, is there enough liquidity and an acceptable backup exit?
The lesson is not that every flip needs an enormous projected profit. It is that the investor should know which assumptions are carrying the deal and how much room exists when ordinary problems overlap. A strong scope of work, recent comparable sales, milestone-based construction draws, adequate reserves, and a realistic weekly carrying-cost estimate are all part of the investment decision.
When you stress test a flip, which assumption do you challenge first: resale value, rehab cost, timeline, or financing expense?