Too risky for newbie or not?

[Jeanette Czachur]

Looking for neutral perspective on this possible deal.  Property in A neighborhood in SW Florida with foreclosure judgement of $125k.  Set to go to auction 7/18 but from what I understand it can be sold so,long as judgement satisfied by 7/18.  Will need title search but preliminary does not show any other clouds on title.  

ARV is between $265-279k based on recent comps right on same street completely rehab with same sq footage (1700). For calculating purposes we are using $255k. House needs work-kitchen/bath updates, paint in and out, flooring, possible new a/c compressor, possible new duct work, pool & screen redo, new garage door, duct worker (1974-smoker) plus misc rehab (lights switches, etc) . Using estimate $56.3 for rehab. Closing, selling and holding costs using approx. $26k. Rehab cal show max purchase $149 assuming desired profit of $20k

First, is this too much investment/risk for newer RE investor? Done two prior rehabs over past 10-15 yrs and made a profit on both.  

Second, not 100% sure if I can buy direct from seller with the judgement?  Is there something I'm missing? 

Third, how numbers look right?  Conservative enough?