Recession Looming? Yes or No?

[Michael Carbonare]

𝐀 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐰𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧.

Société Générale’s Albert Edwards is pointing to a deceptively simple signal:  when U-3 unemployment rises above its 3-year moving average, a recession has followed every single time since 1950.  

Over 70 years of data.  
No exceptions.  
No false positives.

That line has now been crossed. What makes this moment controversial isn’t the signal itself. It’s the widespread belief that this time is different.
The Fed engineered a “soft landing”  
Consumers are still spending
GDP remains positive
Markets keep shrugging

The real question isn’t whether the data is wrong.  It’s whether policymakers, markets, and investors are choosing to ignore one of the most consistent leading indicators we have.

Curious how others are interpreting this. Is this time actually different?  Or are we in the denial phase that always precedes acceptance?