Data Shows A Growing Split In Housing Markets

[Michael Carbonare]

New data highlights a growing split across U.S. housing markets. What’s happening in one city is increasingly irrelevant to another.
https://lnkd.in/dCbhWSXU

We’re seeing a true bifurcation:
Some markets, (primarily Sun Belt), are seeing price softness and rising inventory.
Others, (Midwest, parts of the Northeast), continue to show price resilience and tighter supply.

It’s being driven by three structural shifts:
Inventory is no longer uniform
Certain regions overbuilt coming out of COVID. Others never caught up. That imbalance is now showing up in pricing.
Affordability is improving ever so slightly in some markets. That helps buyers, but only in markets where supply exists.
The “lock-in effect” is fading. More homeowners are giving up ultra-low rates, slowly increasing supply and creating more localized opportunities.

The result?
A housing market that no longer moves as one.
Instead, it behaves like a collection of micro-markets:
Oversupplied gives us price cuts, longer DOM, investor opportunity.
Undersupplied gives us sticky pricing, continued competition.

National headlines won’t help you much here. Understanding local supply/demand dynamics will. The ZIP code matters more than the economy, apparently.

Personal, real world example. My daughter and her husband are recent, first time parents, (I suppose that makes me a recent first time grandparent). They decided they need to upgrade from their townhouse to a larger SFR with a yard for the kid and dog. Location: Jupiter, FL.
The first house they looked at and loved sold on day two, $1.1M
The second house they looked at and loved sold on day two, $1.2M
These are not luxury homes, by the way. Nice enough, of course. But the first was a 2/2, 2000sf. Renovated, move in ready.
The second needed a roof, new AC unit, and impact windows.
Stop the insanity!

[Jay Hinrichs]

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Jason Wray:

Jupiter has become over priced and you cannot get a good purchase to cash flow ratio on top of higher taxes.  The problem is the area attracts the rich crowd who want to be close to Miami without actually living in or paying Miami prices.

Most of the Jupiter crowd is extremely busy trying to keep up with the Jones's...

Take a drive just North of Jupiter up into Melbourne and you can find that same house for $450K versus $1.1M.

this happens all over the US  Real estate is location location location.. one example take SF Bay Area and Oakland / Peidmont.. Just cross the street from Oakland and Oakland public schools into peidmont and the exact same houses are as you describe double the price or more.. Same with Palo Alto and East Palo Alto or Menlo park and East Menlo park.. Bay area schools dictate values immensely.  Think Cupertino  no way a 70 year old 1500 sq ft 3 and 1 is worth 2 mil right ?  :)

Jay,

That's true if its the current trend and for sale its going to sell to the highest bidder!  People who need to spend their Billions, or Millions need homes and toys so there will always be a "Luxury" market.  California is the model to use for sure everyone who wants to be a star or making it in Hollywood will pay their last cent to be there.

 Same as NY you want a piece of the New York nightlife, Skyline, and your place in the city its beyound realistic, like you said just look a the age, size and condition, crazy!

funny thing about Cupertino were average price was just quoted on BP was 3.2 mil for an SFR these are the same house my parents bought for 30k in the early 70s these are family homes 70 years old etc etc.. now of course there is tear downs and heavy remods but this is not the area of the billionaires or rich and famous.. this is Apple engineers and Google and all manner of tech bro's your average 35 YO dinks many making 500k combined and driving an Honda Accord.