Your Opinion - What Will Happen When Things Open Back Up?

Question

I am curious what everyone's thoughts are as restrictions begin to ease - at least they are in my neck of the woods in the Florida Panhandle with beaches opening up. What should we expect? A second wave?

As an multi STR owner I would love to see people start traveling again and and spending money in the local economy to help small businesses, but will it fix the damage already done?

George W. · Answer

Personally I believe that the cats already out of the bag as far as economic impact from this virus. The damage that's been done to a lot of small businesses is already done and theres not much that can be done to help them. itll be interesting to see how many small mom and pop type places never reopen. Im sure large corporations and wall street will be okay.

John Teachout · Answer

Here in Georgia, restrictions are already being eased and the economy is slowly starting to roll forward again. My wife and I went out for lunch both today and yesterday to support a couple of local restaurants on their first day back to eat in dining. It's going to take a while to get the stopped train back up to speed but I personally believe that we'll recover from this in pretty good shape. I still have some uncollected April rents but have slowly been getting them in. (some as recently as yesterday)

CJ M. · Answer

@Blake Dailey

My guess is you will see lawyers on TV every other minute asking if your business went under due to the coronavirus? or if you or a loved one were affected by the coronavirus? or if your business lost money due to the coronavirus? or if you ever had a runny nose and heard of the coronavirus?

Aaron K. · Answer

Nothing and that is the problem, fear will keep people from spending money in the economy, and then the layoffs become permanent.  Sure the folks on the beaches and whatnot may cause a second wave, they may not but I think they are a visible minority.

Account Closed · Answer

I think @Aaron K. is right. Fear is a huge factor right now. Not only when it comes to people not wanting to spend money, but also when it comes to going back out and participating in everyday life. I think most people will be scared just to go out to eat for awhile, let alone air travel or going on vacation. I think we are going to see some pretty bad numbers in the vacation, cruise, resort, etc, industries both because of unemployment and financial reasons, but also because of people's general fear that they could still catch the virus.

Dave Spooner · Answer

Echoing @George W. and @James De Stefano, I agree. There'e definitely going to be a lot of divide between the rich and the middle, both in businesses and families. I think we're going to see those with generous amounts of disposable income resume purchasing and vacationing habits at relatively comparable levels as before COVID. Those who have the resources will likely be eager to travel and resume regular summer vacationing habits after states lift quarantine restrictions, and begin to reopen businesses and industries. We'll likely see those with less or no disposable income hunker down and seriously consider discretionary spending. Travel and vacations will probably be near the bottom of the list.

Jessica-Nicole Ulloa · Answer

I do know one thing. I will try my best to make all of my purchases through small businesses.

Best of luck to all. Stay on the positive mindset :)

Joe Cassandra · Answer

I think the stat is about 25% of small businesses can't afford another 60 days of low revenues, else they'll have to close up shop.

Likely, the economy will NOT bounce back within 60 days, leaving likely millions of businesses broke.

Higher unemployment.

Recession most likely.

If you need guidance on the future, just watch what banks do (don't listen to their BS analysis). All banks are adding record credit reserves. (JP Morgan and Wells Fargo just announced this during earnings). They expect mass defaults in the next 12 months.

I'm in GA. Restaurants 'opened' yesterday. One near us is already out business. A large local chain (O'Charleys) had 0 people in the parking lot when we did pick up nearby this evening.

Paul Shannon · Answer

It's tough to see how things get back to our old "normal" without a vaccine, or at least a viable treatment.   People will generally be very cautious for quite some time, likely pushing guidelines of social distancing, mask wearing, etc until/if the virus pushes back.  If we have a second wave, people will tighten-up more and the economic ramifications will be hard to imagine.

James De Stefano · Answer

Your last sentence is likely spot on.  Sad. I think the divide between rich and middle America will become even wider.   IF you've got 25+ million in the bank, why wouldn't you buy up struggling assets/ businesses / competitors, etc.

Families will have to dig deep, and we'll see if spending grinds to a haul if people learn lessons about living paycheck to paycheck while making 80k a year.

Your Opinion - What Will Happen When Things Open Back Up?

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