Where will people go now that they can work from anywhere?

Question

Remote work has tripled in the past 15 years... It seems likely to me that that number is about to skyrocket as corona has forced a proof point that people can in fact work from home.

While Denver and Colorado Springs have benefited the past ten years from people that can live anywhere (aka, remote workers, tech work and digital nomads) because they want a certain quality of life and Denver and Colorado Springs offer that (and then some), I'm wondering what other locations people think will see an influx of remote workers?

Erin Spradlin · Answer

@Anthony Angotti | Account Closed

Interesting perspective... I guess it assumes you want to be around family more. :)I know people have been flocking to cities the past couple years, but now they anticipate the trend is to get out of the cities.. I believe that will only happen if restaurants can't reopen, etc. As more and more people decline to have kids, I don't see those same people flocking to the suburbs.

Interestingly, Colorado is the number one place to live if you are a remote worker (or it was pre-covid), and New York had the lowest number of remote workers (I assume because it was too expensive.)

Account Closed · Answer

Hi Erin, I agree with @Anthony Angotti that a majority of people will probably stay close to their hometowns and families. I think the pandemic lock-downs across the United States have caused many people to reassess what is meaningful in their lives, and those who do not currently live near family may choose to move closer to their relatives once they have the opportunity. Also, thanks Anthony for sharing those statistics, that was very interesting to read!

I know typically young professionals tend to migrate toward cities, but I think they will re-think moving to cities like NYC for a while in light of current events. I lived in NYC for a few years, and I am so thankful to not be there right now during all of this.

I think we'll see more families moving to suburban or even more "rural" areas where they can have more land and space, but also still be somewhat close to modern conveniences. I'm thinking of places like outside of Lexington, KY where you can have lots of space, but also be a 30 minute drive to Whole Foods and Target.

Last but not least, I think those who can afford it will continue move to places like Denver and Colorado Springs like you mentioned. I also think that Hawaii may see more of an influx of people. I have a few friends moving there now, because they have the freedom to work remotely. Hawaii does have the highest cost of living index, so that will certainly be a barrier to entry, but I do think more people will choose to relocate there because of the natural beauty, the warmth, and one of the top (if not the very top) happiness levels out of all the states.

Llewelyn A. · Answer

I might have a completely different take than others.

In my opinion, I believe that older people and families will want to move out of Apartments in Major Cities for more space either in the less dense City Neighborhoods or in the close by Suburbs.

Younger people that are not family oriented yet, will always consider the big Cities as very exciting.

This Pandemic will pass just like 9/11 did. It will take a few to several years before a new normal will be reached.

The younger Generation would not have experienced this Pandemic the way older NYers did and therefore will feel disconnected from the Pandemic. They will not feel "Vulnerable".

I suspect over time, there will be a significant shift of young professionals replacing older remote workers who moved out of the big Cities.

What will be an interesting question would be whether or not the large amount of Office space in high density areas in the Cities get repurposed. I suspect large Companies will begin to trust having a significant amount of the employees as remote and reduce their Office Space expenses.

That might mean that office spaces may start to repurpose into things like Residential apts.

If that happens, I see it as very positive as there has always been a very low Vacancy rate in big major cities. Here in NYC, it's been below 3% for decades.

I think this will lead to a biforcation of the population in these major Cities. Neighborhoods that surround the dense downtown areas (Manhattan in NYC as an example) will have a higher demand from Older Remote workers and their families because you can buy a house to keep yourself isolated and yet do remote work and still be close to the HQ. As an example of a close by neighborhood that is very low density in NYC, just look at images by Googling "Ditmas Park Brooklyn." There is almost no difference between what you have in the Suburbs and what you have here in Ditmas Park Brooklyn and yet you are only 30 minutes away from the middle of Manhattan if you need to go there.

Downtown areas will have a higher population of younger people, most of them single or couples who did not start their families yet.

Eventually the 55 Million Tourists will return to NYC. The Restaurants will Return. How will they be different? Maybe the food will become more expensive to accommodate less Patrons?

Will we need more Restaurants because we need more space to keep the distance?

It's still a bit uncertain. However, if we look at 9/11... the rebound was tremendous after several years.

There is also another factor that needs to be taken into consideration. Eventually the temperature and weather will play a factor in Cities, especially colder Cities like NYC and hot ones like Miami.

Colder Cities will become more desireable as the temperature gets milder. Hot Cities will just get hotter.

There might be a transition period where there is a Migration from Hot to less hot Cities before other factors like Flooding become an issue.

Personally, I think the Pandemic won't be the event that forces us to transition to a new normal. It's just the Catalyst. Global Warming will the the greater and stronger force that will dictate the real migration of people in the next few decades.

Anthony Angotti · Answer

I think the majority of people still stay in an area because it's "where they are from" and "it's where family is". I also still think that people are trending towards liking walkable communities which favors urban environments still.

However, there has been a southward population trend for a while now. This may lead to a slight uptick in population movement in that direction. So basically they trends will remain about the same. They may just accelerate a bit more. "The South, the largest of the four regions with a population of 125,580,448 in 2019, saw the largest numeric growth (1,011,015) and percentage growth (0.8%) between 2018 and 2019. This growth is driven mainly by natural increase (359,114) and net domestic migration (407,913), which is the movement of people from one area to another within the United States. The Northeast region, the smallest of the four regions with a population of 55,982,803 in 2019, saw population decrease for the first time this decade, declining by 63,817 or -0.1%. This decline was due to net domestic migration (-294,331), which offset population gains from natural increase (97,152) and net international migration (134,145), or the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country."https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html