Is the Florida market about to correct? (or crash??)

[Marcus Auerbach]

I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad. 

Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market. 

Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.

Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years. 

Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?

[Jorge Vazquez]

Hey man, I saw the post about Florida’s market "crashing," and honestly, I think it’s way overblown.

First off, yeah, inventory has gone up, but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling. Central Florida and Tampa Bay are just normalizing after a couple of wild years. Orlando’s median home price is still up about 4% from last year, and Tampa’s median sold price is actually higher than before—up around 5.2%. If we were heading for a crash, prices wouldn’t be holding steady like that.

Now, let me tell you from my own experience—I own 32 properties, and here’s how things have played out:

• 15 have dropped about 20% in value (mostly in areas where demand cooled off).
• 10 have stayed flat, meaning no loss or gain.
• 7 have actually gone up in price, which proves that not everything is crashing—some pockets are still appreciating.

And I don't touch condos. Ever. Not after what happened to my mom. She owned one, and everything seemed fine—until the HOA hit her with a massive assessment. She went from having an affordable place to suddenly facing thousands of dollars in unexpected fees. When she couldn’t pay, she had to sell fast, and guess what? She took a major loss. Condos can be a nightmare because you’re not just buying a property—you’re buying into whatever financial mess the HOA decides to hand you.

That’s why I stick with single-family homes and small multifamily properties—I control my own expenses, my own decisions, and I don’t get blindsided by ridiculous fees.

At the end of the day, we’re just seeing the market shift back to something healthier. Interest rates are still high, which is slowing things down, but as they drop later this year (which I fully expect), you’ll see more buyers jumping back in.

So yeah, no 2008-style meltdown here. More like a market taking a deep breath after sprinting for two years straight. If you’re investing, this is actually when you start getting better deals—not when you panic.

What do you think?