Is the Florida market about to correct? (or crash??)
Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
Is the Florida market about to correct? (or crash??)
Most Popular Reply
Jorge VazquezBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 679 votesHey man, I saw the post about Florida’s market "crashing," and honestly, I think it’s way overblown.
First off, yeah, inventory has gone up, but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling. Central Florida and Tampa Bay are just normalizing after a couple of wild years. Orlando’s median home price is still up about 4% from last year, and Tampa’s median sold price is actually higher than before—up around 5.2%. If we were heading for a crash, prices wouldn’t be holding steady like that.
Now, let me tell you from my own experience—I own 32 properties, and here’s how things have played out:
- 15 have dropped about 20% in value (mostly in areas where demand cooled off).
- 10 have stayed flat, meaning no loss or gain.
- 7 have actually gone up in price, which proves that not everything is crashing—some pockets are still appreciating.
And I don't touch condos. Ever. Not after what happened to my mom. She owned one, and everything seemed fine—until the HOA hit her with a massive assessment. She went from having an affordable place to suddenly facing thousands of dollars in unexpected fees. When she couldn’t pay, she had to sell fast, and guess what? She took a major loss. Condos can be a nightmare because you’re not just buying a property—you’re buying into whatever financial mess the HOA decides to hand you.
That’s why I stick with single-family homes and small multifamily properties—I control my own expenses, my own decisions, and I don’t get blindsided by ridiculous fees.
At the end of the day, we’re just seeing the market shift back to something healthier. Interest rates are still high, which is slowing things down, but as they drop later this year (which I fully expect), you’ll see more buyers jumping back in.
So yeah, no 2008-style meltdown here. More like a market taking a deep breath after sprinting for two years straight. If you’re investing, this is actually when you start getting better deals—not when you panic.
What do you think?
Graystone Investment Group4.6268 Reviews
29 Replies
- 1yBlake McWilliamsBusiness MemberRealtor · Effingham, IL · Member since 2021 · 57 posts · 33 votes
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
Hey Marcus! Completely anecdotal and just talking out loud here; but, would you consider this to be more of the market getting back to what should be considered normal? Our normal market cycle in central Illinois is 6 months of supply with a 90% lp to sp ratio. We have not seen this since pre pandemic. We currently have 2 months supply and it is leading to home prices continuing to outpace inflation. To be honest I would be very happy in the above scenario because it should lead to better opportunity for a buyers market and negotiations.
Thoughts?
RE/MAX Key Advantage4.427 Reviews - Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1y
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
- Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes1y
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
I would say markets are going to start "correcting" and it will vary between location and product type. As many of us have been saying on here for a while, there will be a point when this will occur and areas will soften or stay stagnant for a period of time while it allows incomes to slowly grow during that time.
7e investments53 Reviews- 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
I would say markets are going to start "correcting" and it will vary between location and product type. As many of us have been saying on here for a while, there will be a point when this will occur and areas will soften or stay stagnant for a period of time while it allows incomes to slowly grow during that time.
Opex is the headwinds in SW FL. Opex issue in FL is as material as cap rate for commercial MFs in a national scale. If you're able to get a downpayment, DTI approval, then the opex will likely be the deal breaker.
BP Legend Bob Stevens & I mentioned SW FL a year or so back. Didn't take a genius to see this. This has been forming-- phys RE cracks are slow to mature but swift in it's action.
Austin, among other cities, is one to watch for. And a few others are in this territory and will be by Q4 2025 which will take 6-18 mos to realize. RE ETFs are showing very bearish signals which is primed for correction territory not sure if it gets there or even worse into bearish territory but let's see how that unwinds. The underlying holdings are commercial which could be a pain point for lenders.
If RE agents do what they do best--manipulate the markets-- we'll see Q2 in 2025 and 2026 get overcrowded with supply in areas that are already trending back to pre-pandemic levels. In some areas, like Miami, that may push them to 10-14 month of inventory. The real material break and true crash is north of 40 months of inventory, once you get 1/3 of that so call it 13-ish months it's in correction territory and bearish at the 21-24 month level. At least from all the levels we're looking at here internally. That's a long way to go, but a huge hit to anyone that bought with intending to re-fi in the short term from 2023 to today.
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
I would say markets are going to start "correcting" and it will vary between location and product type. As many of us have been saying on here for a while, there will be a point when this will occur and areas will soften or stay stagnant for a period of time while it allows incomes to slowly grow during that time.
Opex is the headwinds in SW FL. Opex issue in FL is as material as cap rate for commercial MFs in a national scale. If you're able to get a downpayment, DTI approval, then the opex will likely be the deal breaker.
BP Legend Bob Stevens & I mentioned SW FL a year or so back. Didn't take a genius to see this. This has been forming-- phys RE cracks are slow to mature but swift in it's action.
Austin, among other cities, is one to watch for. And a few others are in this territory and will be by Q4 2025 which will take 6-18 mos to realize. RE ETFs are showing very bearish signals which is primed for correction territory not sure if it gets there or even worse into bearish territory but let's see how that unwinds. The underlying holdings are commercial which could be a pain point for lenders.
If RE agents do what they do best--manipulate the markets-- we'll see Q2 in 2025 and 2026 get overcrowded with supply in areas that are already trending back to pre-pandemic levels. In some areas, like Miami, that may push them to 10-14 month of inventory. The real material break and true crash is north of 40 months of inventory, once you get 1/3 of that so call it 13-ish months it's in correction territory and bearish at the 21-24 month level. At least from all the levels we're looking at here internally. That's a long way to go, but a huge hit to anyone that bought with intending to re-fi in the short term from 2023 to today.
SWF has been a boom bust market for decades.. U cant have 1 million platted legal lots of record of which maybe half are built on.. and expect linear rise in values..
I think you give far to much credit to RE agents.. there is no way they themselves manipulate the market.. might be some bigger players but the average agents its not in their playbook. - 1yV.G JasonPro MemberInvestor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
I would say markets are going to start "correcting" and it will vary between location and product type. As many of us have been saying on here for a while, there will be a point when this will occur and areas will soften or stay stagnant for a period of time while it allows incomes to slowly grow during that time.
Opex is the headwinds in SW FL. Opex issue in FL is as material as cap rate for commercial MFs in a national scale. If you're able to get a downpayment, DTI approval, then the opex will likely be the deal breaker.
BP Legend Bob Stevens & I mentioned SW FL a year or so back. Didn't take a genius to see this. This has been forming-- phys RE cracks are slow to mature but swift in it's action.
Austin, among other cities, is one to watch for. And a few others are in this territory and will be by Q4 2025 which will take 6-18 mos to realize. RE ETFs are showing very bearish signals which is primed for correction territory not sure if it gets there or even worse into bearish territory but let's see how that unwinds. The underlying holdings are commercial which could be a pain point for lenders.
If RE agents do what they do best--manipulate the markets-- we'll see Q2 in 2025 and 2026 get overcrowded with supply in areas that are already trending back to pre-pandemic levels. In some areas, like Miami, that may push them to 10-14 month of inventory. The real material break and true crash is north of 40 months of inventory, once you get 1/3 of that so call it 13-ish months it's in correction territory and bearish at the 21-24 month level. At least from all the levels we're looking at here internally. That's a long way to go, but a huge hit to anyone that bought with intending to re-fi in the short term from 2023 to today.
SWF has been a boom bust market for decades.. U cant have 1 million platted legal lots of record of which maybe half are built on.. and expect linear rise in values..
I think you give far to much credit to RE agents.. there is no way they themselves manipulate the market.. might be some bigger players but the average agents its not in their playbook.You are right, I am. I don't think individual agents are savvy enough to think that way, let alone orchestrate it. It is more so a top down mandate from brokerages.
While it doesn't happen it at large, it is happening more often the past 2 years or so when I ask directly why the withholding. Also see a lot of brokerages try to buy the house before it gets listed, but that's another story.
- Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes1y
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Chris Seveney:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
I would say markets are going to start "correcting" and it will vary between location and product type. As many of us have been saying on here for a while, there will be a point when this will occur and areas will soften or stay stagnant for a period of time while it allows incomes to slowly grow during that time.
Opex is the headwinds in SW FL. Opex issue in FL is as material as cap rate for commercial MFs in a national scale. If you're able to get a downpayment, DTI approval, then the opex will likely be the deal breaker.
BP Legend Bob Stevens & I mentioned SW FL a year or so back. Didn't take a genius to see this. This has been forming-- phys RE cracks are slow to mature but swift in it's action.
Austin, among other cities, is one to watch for. And a few others are in this territory and will be by Q4 2025 which will take 6-18 mos to realize. RE ETFs are showing very bearish signals which is primed for correction territory not sure if it gets there or even worse into bearish territory but let's see how that unwinds. The underlying holdings are commercial which could be a pain point for lenders.
If RE agents do what they do best--manipulate the markets-- we'll see Q2 in 2025 and 2026 get overcrowded with supply in areas that are already trending back to pre-pandemic levels. In some areas, like Miami, that may push them to 10-14 month of inventory. The real material break and true crash is north of 40 months of inventory, once you get 1/3 of that so call it 13-ish months it's in correction territory and bearish at the 21-24 month level. At least from all the levels we're looking at here internally. That's a long way to go, but a huge hit to anyone that bought with intending to re-fi in the short term from 2023 to today.
SWF has been a boom bust market for decades.. U cant have 1 million platted legal lots of record of which maybe half are built on.. and expect linear rise in values..
I think you give far to much credit to RE agents.. there is no way they themselves manipulate the market.. might be some bigger players but the average agents its not in their playbook.You are right, I am. I don't think individual agents are savvy enough to think that way, let alone orchestrate it. It is more so a top down mandate from brokerages.
While it doesn't happen it at large, it is happening more often the past 2 years or so when I ask directly why the withholding. Also see a lot of brokerages try to buy the house before it gets listed, but that's another story.
Brokerages lack the means to do so, but frankly also the motivation. A brokerage could not care less if prices are 5% up or down, as a business the only thing that matters is transaction volume. A super-hot market can lack transaction volume and is hard on agents. Much better to have a balanced market with about equal supply and demand.
- 1yEnzo Di PalmaBusiness MemberRealtor · Miami Beach, FL · Member since 2019 · 32 posts · 9 votes
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
I agree with Ray—condos, especially with the new reserve requirements and reassessments, are becoming pretty unaffordable. Pre-construction and new builds seem to be making a lot more sense compared to older buildings. SFR, in my opinion, is always a solid buy as long as you stick to smart buying principles. Looking forward to all the opportunities ahead! - Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes1y
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
After the crash of 07 to 09 that area had a 11 YEAR supply yes 11 Years.. you had condo towers built U know 300 units and only 20 sold the rest were vacant. it was a mess. But it corrected over time.. I dont think it took 11 years to balance.. But with the Condo that fell down and the new rules any condos older than a certain age those are the ones that will be suffering big time. - Investor · Miami, FL · Member since 2016 · 197 posts · 65 votes1y
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
Separate condos and single family homes , different story
- 1yNicholas L.Pro MemberFlipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
i peruse condo listings in FL periodically and what i see more and more is a lot of 'low' prices with sky high monthly HOA fees. i really don't know how that plays out. @Jay Hinrichs what do you think - will those old buildings be able to recover with new owners that can better afford the HOA fees?
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Nicholas L.:
i peruse condo listings in FL periodically and what i see more and more is a lot of 'low' prices with sky high monthly HOA fees. i really don't know how that plays out. @Jay Hinrichs what do you think - will those old buildings be able to recover with new owners that can better afford the HOA fees?
Kind of reminds me of some of the golf course communities out here where if you bought a lot you had to pay the 100k transfer fee for the membership and 1k a month dues.. U saw all sorts of lots listed for 5 dollars.. folks just wanted out of debt. And the orginal buyers not only paid the 100k for memberships but 100 to 300k for the lots on top of it.
So in my mind those that buoght long ago for not much.. probably just want out of fixed debt those that paid top of market within 6 months of the buidling failure and new rules coming in are going to take a bath.. RE has risks. - Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1y
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
talk of eliminating property tax in FLA is that what your saying ?? Dont see how that could even remotely be possible when U have NO state income tax .. Unlike NV that has massive income from Gambling- Investor · Parkland, FL · Member since 2013 · 4 posts · 4 votes1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
talk of eliminating property tax in FLA is that what your saying ?? Dont see how that could even remotely be possible when U have NO state income tax .. Unlike NV that has massive income from GamblingYou're correct, with no state income tax, it would indeed be difficult to replace $40 Billion of property tax revenue. The governor hasn't given specifics, but the most common answer from pundits is to simply double the sales tax.
- Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
talk of eliminating property tax in FLA is that what your saying ?? Dont see how that could even remotely be possible when U have NO state income tax .. Unlike NV that has massive income from GamblingYou're gonna have to talk to DeSantis and let him know. Eliminating property taxes has been in the news for about a week now. It is a goofy idea but it is currently being explored. I think it can certainly be lowered as in Broward and Dade, it is more than 2% of the assessed value of the property.
- Real Estate Agent · Member since 2023 · 91 posts · 80 votes1y
Yeah on the east coast very similar. A big factor is obviously the interest rates since the prices jumped. For us an average home is 350k 2-3 years ago monthly payment at 4% with 10% down was $1900 and now its $2500 for the same house.
FL is filled with people on fixed and low income. So the 30% jump in monthly expenses is sure to be felt. Median household income is 63k a year in our county. So not many can swing 50% of their income going just towards a mortgage.
- 1yRobert EllisBusiness MemberDeveloper · Miami, FL · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
I just looked through some numbers for southern FL and they look bad.
Miami-Dade County has over 8 months worth of suppy, Monroe County (Florida Keys) has almost 12 month worth of supply. Anything over 5 is considered a sellers market.
Boward County (Fort Lauderdale) has 8 months' worth of inventory, almost 18,000 homes for sale. In comparison my home market Milwaukee County has 1 month supply and a total of 651 homes listed for sale. Granted, at about half the population, but the difference is almost incomprehensible. This looks like post 2008 levels.
Sold to List Price ratio's are slipping below 95% in FL, I have not seen much under 100% in 5 years.
Who is local in Miami, Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Sarasota and can speak to the market down there?
can you show me your source in Miami that says ew have 8 months supply? miami dade county has more people moving to it than many cities and very limited land.
https://comreal.com/two-reports-highlight-miami-as-a-top-gro...
miami has been appreciating and at double Floridas rate. you can't put the two in the same category it's not even close. same with Broward or west palm beach you can't lump them in. 3 totally different markets.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/12/13/florida-housing-mark...
my home city in columbus also has similar stats but I doubt that miami is a buyer's market my friend I'm sorry. Columbus and affordable areas just like your market have the same. you can't compare sarasota to miami either. this is condo market not housing. palm beach or fort Lauderdale aren't the same. they are more horizontal markets. miami has the 3rd tallest skyline in the country after Chicago and New York.
Section 8 Launch52 Reviews - 1yJorge VazquezBusiness MemberReal Estate Broker · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 679 votes
Hey man, I saw the post about Florida’s market "crashing," and honestly, I think it’s way overblown.
First off, yeah, inventory has gone up, but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling. Central Florida and Tampa Bay are just normalizing after a couple of wild years. Orlando’s median home price is still up about 4% from last year, and Tampa’s median sold price is actually higher than before—up around 5.2%. If we were heading for a crash, prices wouldn’t be holding steady like that.
Now, let me tell you from my own experience—I own 32 properties, and here’s how things have played out:
- 15 have dropped about 20% in value (mostly in areas where demand cooled off).
- 10 have stayed flat, meaning no loss or gain.
- 7 have actually gone up in price, which proves that not everything is crashing—some pockets are still appreciating.
And I don't touch condos. Ever. Not after what happened to my mom. She owned one, and everything seemed fine—until the HOA hit her with a massive assessment. She went from having an affordable place to suddenly facing thousands of dollars in unexpected fees. When she couldn’t pay, she had to sell fast, and guess what? She took a major loss. Condos can be a nightmare because you’re not just buying a property—you’re buying into whatever financial mess the HOA decides to hand you.
That’s why I stick with single-family homes and small multifamily properties—I control my own expenses, my own decisions, and I don’t get blindsided by ridiculous fees.
At the end of the day, we’re just seeing the market shift back to something healthier. Interest rates are still high, which is slowing things down, but as they drop later this year (which I fully expect), you’ll see more buyers jumping back in.
So yeah, no 2008-style meltdown here. More like a market taking a deep breath after sprinting for two years straight. If you’re investing, this is actually when you start getting better deals—not when you panic.
What do you think?
Graystone Investment Group4.6268 Reviews- Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes1y
Quote from @Jorge Vazquez:
Hey man, I saw the post about Florida’s market "crashing," and honestly, I think it’s way overblown.
First off, yeah, inventory has gone up, but that doesn’t mean the sky is falling. Central Florida and Tampa Bay are just normalizing after a couple of wild years. Orlando’s median home price is still up about 4% from last year, and Tampa’s median sold price is actually higher than before—up around 5.2%. If we were heading for a crash, prices wouldn’t be holding steady like that.
Now, let me tell you from my own experience—I own 32 properties, and here’s how things have played out:
- 15 have dropped about 20% in value (mostly in areas where demand cooled off).
- 10 have stayed flat, meaning no loss or gain.
- 7 have actually gone up in price, which proves that not everything is crashing—some pockets are still appreciating.
And I don't touch condos. Ever. Not after what happened to my mom. She owned one, and everything seemed fine—until the HOA hit her with a massive assessment. She went from having an affordable place to suddenly facing thousands of dollars in unexpected fees. When she couldn’t pay, she had to sell fast, and guess what? She took a major loss. Condos can be a nightmare because you’re not just buying a property—you’re buying into whatever financial mess the HOA decides to hand you.
That’s why I stick with single-family homes and small multifamily properties—I control my own expenses, my own decisions, and I don’t get blindsided by ridiculous fees.
At the end of the day, we’re just seeing the market shift back to something healthier. Interest rates are still high, which is slowing things down, but as they drop later this year (which I fully expect), you’ll see more buyers jumping back in.
So yeah, no 2008-style meltdown here. More like a market taking a deep breath after sprinting for two years straight. If you’re investing, this is actually when you start getting better deals—not when you panic.
What do you think?
Definitley not a reason to panic, just interesting to watch the data and see this play out in a present day market. The inventory numbers are mind blowing to me. We have literally 651 listings in a market that is half the size of Boward County and they have 18,000 - we could use some of that inventory.
Way too much equity for a 2008 melt down, and people can just NOT sell and hold.
My data is from RPR and it's condos plus SF combined, I believe I can filter condos.
It will be interesting to see how the psychology plays out. I wonder if some owners will become sellers because of what they see in the market. Its that get-out-while-you-can menatlity. Or it might just level out. With a couple more years of elevated inflation the affordability issue will be softening too.
What i am trying to understand are the reasons and the dynamic of what is happening there. Are most of the condos second homes?
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes1y
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
talk of eliminating property tax in FLA is that what your saying ?? Dont see how that could even remotely be possible when U have NO state income tax .. Unlike NV that has massive income from GamblingYou're gonna have to talk to DeSantis and let him know. Eliminating property taxes has been in the news for about a week now. It is a goofy idea but it is currently being explored. I think it can certainly be lowered as in Broward and Dade, it is more than 2% of the assessed value of the property.
Only thing I could think of is to institute a large sales tax to replace it. On a recent primary election ballot here in TX there was a question regarding whether people would favor getting rid of property tax if some other equal tax was instituted.
- Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1yDo you think it could happen there? I would love if they could pass it onto tourists in FL but those hotel taxes are already really high or sales tax (currently at 7%) but I don't see it happening here. Maybe a tax reduction could work on someone's primary, sure, but on all residential or commercial properties seems impossible to me. Here's hoping.
Quote from @Eric James:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
I don't think it will be crashing on the whole....condos, however, yes I see a crash that has already started months ago and going to get worse soon. For SFH, small MF, most commercial, etc should have a correction.
I just pulled MLS data last night. Dade has 5.6 months of inventory of SFH and Broward 5.1 months as Jan 2025. Don't get me wrong, it could get worse but I wouldn't freak out yet. I think we are just normalizing.
Just now out of curiosity, I just pulled Broward data for condos/TH and it is 10.8 months and 11.9 months for Dade! Data can be dangerous if you're not looking at the details.
Yeah, this is RPR data, so it's SF+condos combined. So seems like it's more a condo issue at the moment, which points me to second homes and not Airbnb as the main driver.
As an investor, I am always looking for opportunities and you have a lot more leverage to negotiate in a high inventory market. In my market, anything good goes way over list.
And for agents changes in the market mean more transactions, so that's good in my book. I work mostly with relocation and higher-end clients and consumers think a super hot market is good for agents. It sucks, I'd rather have 2 offers on a listing and a day to review than 12 offers and 2h binding acceptance! And on the buyer side it's just brutal without inventory. So I'd love for my market to cool off a bit!
The question for me is what are real specific reasons WHY this is happening in S-FL? When you understand the reasons you can form an opinion on the extent of this situation and what will happen next. What do you see?
For the "why" regarding condos...high HOA fees (like 1000/mo...something like 400-500 is now "very low"), high insurance costs, overbuilding (everyday it seems like new building is going up) and high property taxes. Regarding property taxes, they were always high but it's one thing when a condo cost 150k in 2020 and that same exact condo is 350k now. I don't see a good solution to prevent a further crashing for condos.
If they can get insurance rates and mortgage rates to come down a little, we would have a light correction imo for SFH. I don't foresee property taxes going down no matter what DeSantis says. I hope the property taxes go away but I don't think it is likely
talk of eliminating property tax in FLA is that what your saying ?? Dont see how that could even remotely be possible when U have NO state income tax .. Unlike NV that has massive income from GamblingYou're gonna have to talk to DeSantis and let him know. Eliminating property taxes has been in the news for about a week now. It is a goofy idea but it is currently being explored. I think it can certainly be lowered as in Broward and Dade, it is more than 2% of the assessed value of the property.
Only thing I could think of is to institute a large sales tax to replace it. On a recent primary election ballot here in TX there was a question regarding whether people would favor getting rid of property tax if some other equal tax was instituted.
- Rental Property Investor · Somewhere over the Rainbow · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes1y
I have a couple friends that bought condos around PCB in the last few years - it hasn't been a pretty sight. The initial condo had a huge assessment that was based on square footage (something to do with the foundation) - so they ended up selling to try to get out of the assessment.
That condo was at the Shores of Panama. I don't know whatever happened to the court case, but I do remember it was in the 60-80million range of renovations apparently needed to the structure.
They sold that condo after a year - mixed reviews on AirBnB and VRBO and bought at Regency Towers. The condo at Regency Towers has been listed since May 2024 - started at 500k and down to 450k now with apparently zero interest. They bought the condo at Regency Towers for 475k in 2024. I believe they are losing money pretty badly at Regency Towers. A quick look at AirBnB and VRBO shows completely open availability through the entire year (including June/July/Aug/Sept). This is not a great sign.
For me personally, I can't get the STR numbers to work. Between the extra AirBnB fees, special assessments, silly parking they have going on, it doesn't look good for me in the PCB area.
- Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1y
Quote from @Jeremy Horton:
I have a couple friends that bought condos around PCB in the last few years - it hasn't been a pretty sight. The initial condo had a huge assessment that was based on square footage (something to do with the foundation) - so they ended up selling to try to get out of the assessment.
That condo was at the Shores of Panama. I don't know whatever happened to the court case, but I do remember it was in the 60-80million range of renovations apparently needed to the structure.
They sold that condo after a year - mixed reviews on AirBnB and VRBO and bought at Regency Towers. The condo at Regency Towers has been listed since May 2024 - started at 500k and down to 450k now with apparently zero interest. They bought the condo at Regency Towers for 475k in 2024. I believe they are losing money pretty badly at Regency Towers. A quick look at AirBnB and VRBO shows completely open availability through the entire year (including June/July/Aug/Sept). This is not a great sign.
For me personally, I can't get the STR numbers to work. Between the extra AirBnB fees, special assessments, silly parking they have going on, it doesn't look good for me in the PCB area.
Unfortunately these are common stories. I just spoke with a lender who is also an investor and trying to get rid of his condos. Unfortunately, people are going to lose their butts on condos unless they got them crazy cheap many years ago.
I own a TH with a HOA but so far have been unaffected....though I am wondering do I keep holding or sell? I feel it is a gamble either way
- 1yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Jeremy Horton:
I have a couple friends that bought condos around PCB in the last few years - it hasn't been a pretty sight. The initial condo had a huge assessment that was based on square footage (something to do with the foundation) - so they ended up selling to try to get out of the assessment.
That condo was at the Shores of Panama. I don't know whatever happened to the court case, but I do remember it was in the 60-80million range of renovations apparently needed to the structure.
They sold that condo after a year - mixed reviews on AirBnB and VRBO and bought at Regency Towers. The condo at Regency Towers has been listed since May 2024 - started at 500k and down to 450k now with apparently zero interest. They bought the condo at Regency Towers for 475k in 2024. I believe they are losing money pretty badly at Regency Towers. A quick look at AirBnB and VRBO shows completely open availability through the entire year (including June/July/Aug/Sept). This is not a great sign.
For me personally, I can't get the STR numbers to work. Between the extra AirBnB fees, special assessments, silly parking they have going on, it doesn't look good for me in the PCB area.
Unfortunately these are common stories. I just spoke with a lender who is also an investor and trying to get rid of his condos. Unfortunately, people are going to lose their butts on condos unless they got them crazy cheap many years ago.
I own a TH with a HOA but so far have been unaffected....though I am wondering do I keep holding or sell? I feel it is a gamble either way
naive question but is summer season the high season I would think winter would be you know people getting out of the snow ? I have been to FLA in Summer and thats some tough weather .
Kind of like PHX Vegas and Palm springs summer is dead and winter is high season. - Investor · Fort Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 755 votes1y
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
Quote from @Ray Hage:
Quote from @Jeremy Horton:
I have a couple friends that bought condos around PCB in the last few years - it hasn't been a pretty sight. The initial condo had a huge assessment that was based on square footage (something to do with the foundation) - so they ended up selling to try to get out of the assessment.
That condo was at the Shores of Panama. I don't know whatever happened to the court case, but I do remember it was in the 60-80million range of renovations apparently needed to the structure.
They sold that condo after a year - mixed reviews on AirBnB and VRBO and bought at Regency Towers. The condo at Regency Towers has been listed since May 2024 - started at 500k and down to 450k now with apparently zero interest. They bought the condo at Regency Towers for 475k in 2024. I believe they are losing money pretty badly at Regency Towers. A quick look at AirBnB and VRBO shows completely open availability through the entire year (including June/July/Aug/Sept). This is not a great sign.
For me personally, I can't get the STR numbers to work. Between the extra AirBnB fees, special assessments, silly parking they have going on, it doesn't look good for me in the PCB area.
Unfortunately these are common stories. I just spoke with a lender who is also an investor and trying to get rid of his condos. Unfortunately, people are going to lose their butts on condos unless they got them crazy cheap many years ago.
I own a TH with a HOA but so far have been unaffected....though I am wondering do I keep holding or sell? I feel it is a gamble either way
naive question but is summer season the high season I would think winter would be you know people getting out of the snow ? I have been to FLA in Summer and thats some tough weather .
Kind of like PHX Vegas and Palm springs summer is dead and winter is high season.You would think summer season would be dead here (because it's just gross with humidity, hurricanes and heavy rains), but it's actually pretty busy just about the same as winter. The only really dead time is Nov-Dec. Sep and Oct are somewhat slow as well. We have had way too many people moving here from all over the world (sidenote: it has turned into the playground for the rich and upper middle class of the world) in recent years and they are still coming
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