Inflation Below Forecasts, Home Sales Rise

[Derek Brickley]

Week of October 20, 2025

Even with the government shutdown delaying some reports, this week’s inflation and housing data brought some encouraging news! Especially for buyers and sellers heading into year-end.

📉 Consumer Inflation Better Than Expected

Inflation came in cooler than expected in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks price changes across the economy and it rose just 0.3% monthly and 3% year-over-year, slightly under forecasts.

“Core” inflation (excluding food and energy) also slowed to 3% annually, thanks largely to easing shelter costs, which make up over a third of the CPI calculation.

📊 Bottom line: This is exactly the type of report the Fed wants to see before lowering rates again. Markets are now betting on another 0.25% Fed rate cut next week, and mortgage rates are already drifting down in anticipation.

👉 Why it matters: Lower inflation means less pressure on rates — and that can help more buyers qualify, reopen stalled deals, and boost fall and winter activity for agents.

🏡 September Existing Home Sales Tick Higher

Existing home closings rose 1.5% from August and 4.1% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Inventory reached 1.55 million homes, matching a five-year high — though still below pre-COVID levels.

📊 Bottom line: These closings reflect buyers shopping back in July and August, before rates began to dip. That means we haven’t yet seen the full impact of lower borrowing costs on buyer activity.

👉 Why it matters: With affordability improving and more inventory available, this could be the start of a rebound in existing home sales — creating more opportunities for listings, move-up buyers, and client re-engagements.

🍂 Family Hack of the Week

Don’t toss those pumpkin seeds! Toss 1½ cups of seeds with 3 tbsp melted butter, 1 tsp cinnamon, and a pinch of salt, bake at 300°F for 40 minutes, then sprinkle 2 tbsp sugar over them while warm. Sweet, crunchy, and zero waste 🎃

📅 What’s Coming Up This Week

• Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (August)
• Wednesday: Pending Home Sales (September)
• Tuesday–Wednesday: Fed policy meeting + press conference

The next Fed decision is the big one — another cut could strengthen the downward trend in mortgage rates, potentially setting up a busy November.

Catch you next week.