Private Payrolls Rebound, Home Price Forecasts Stay Strong

[Derek Brickley]

Week of November 3, 2025

Job growth finally bounced back in October — but just barely. Meanwhile, home price forecasts point toward steady appreciation into next year.

💼 Private Sector Job Growth Rebounds, But Still Modest

The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, according to ADP — the first increase since July. Large companies led the charge, while smaller firms trimmed staff. Wage growth held steady at 4.5% for job stayers and 6.7% for job changers, showing a market that’s cooling, not crashing.

👉 Bottom line for rates: Hiring remains too soft for the Fed to change course. With inflation still above target, they’ll likely hold off on another rate cut until December’s meeting. Nothing in this data screams “pivot,” but it also doesn’t stop one.

🏡 Home Price Outlook Remains Upbeat

Home values dipped just 0.2% in September, according to Cotality, but are still 1.2% higher year-over-year. More importantly, their 12-month forecast improved to +4.1%, up from 3.9%.

👉 Bottom line for real estate: Even in a slower economy, housing continues to hold its ground. Lower rates and pent-up demand could keep appreciation steady — a clear reminder that homeownership remains one of the most reliable paths to long-term wealth.

📅 What’s Coming Up This Week

• Home price data from ICE • Small business optimism (NFIB) • Treasury auctions midweek could sway mortgage rates

Catch you next week, Derek Brickley #LoansbyDB